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daniel

@daniel-j-h.bsky.social

138 Posts32 Follower244 Folgt
mr. TIM@timkellogg.me · 23h ago

the funnel - 80% of the world has no AI contact - ~20% have janky experience - 0.2% are power users - 0.00006% work for labs and have internal access to actual frontier models

Andrej Karpathy @karpathy .27m Dusting off this tweet from April because this gap in shared understanding of LLM capability is "widening*. It's now less "two groups of people speaking past each other" and more a sharp funnel. - Napkin math somewhere around 6B people (~75% of the population) have barely come in contact with LLMs at all. - Around 1-2B (~20%) are casual and infrequent users of free-tier ChatGPT-like products. This group sees derpy chatbots and treats them a bit like a better Google search, a writing aid, or etc. Maybe an agent tries to book you a flight. I have non-tech friends who (reasonably, imo) say they have not much use for it at all. Even many professionals outside of math&code are in this tier. For example, execs and many other functions spend a lot of their time talking to other people, so while they understand what is happening intellectually, it is still second-hand and a bit abstract. - Now we get to professional use of frontier-grade LLMs in math&code. Somewhere around 20M people (0.2%) see first-hand that large, complex projects that used to take them weeks/months can now be completed by agents with a prompt. Building apps, copying apps, translating apps, decompiling apps from binaries... This has all happened very quickly and recently - less than 1 year ago, I was writing code manually by hand, typing memorized computer code commands into a code editor character by character, occasionally pressing Tab to autocomplete a little chunk of code.- And finally we get to the ~5,000 people (~0.00006%) with access to frontier-grade systems internally. The external world has seen the preview. It looks like swarms of thousands of agents collaborating over weeks on software mega projects: minting zero days, running cyber attacks and defenses at machine speeds, discovering new science, advancing the frontier of mathematics. Things that would have taken top professionals in the industry years of work. Meanwhile, human review and comprehension are starting to fall behind. For example, people are still involved in the "archeology" of the OpenAl-HF incident from many months ago. Mathematicians may be poring over the 722 manuscripts on frontier mathematics for a while. The funnel is driven by a combination of factors: 1. The impact scales with ambition, problem size, and horizon. A question with a paragraph answer barely stresses the system. You need a reservoir of big, difficult problems that you really care about. This aspect drives the consumer / professional dimension of the funnel. 2. The jaggedness of the system (which I have written about a lot separately). Capability peaks in domains that are digital, verifiable and economically valuable. This is because LLM capability emerges from reinforcement learning on verifiable rewards on a curated environment mixture driven by revenue potential. This aspect primarily drives the area (e.g. math&code) dimension of the funnel. 3. Access. Free-tier, paid-tier, internal.
daniel@daniel-j-h.bsky.social · yesterday

prediction: in 3-6 month there will be a sovereign EU decision model, publicly funded, trained on some sort of Telekom Sovereign AI Cloud (TM), and no better than the open models there are as of today (Clef etc.)

ponder@ponder.ooo · 3d ago

the future of gaming is that your friend yaps at you about their favorite new game, the one their agent made just for them, tailored to their preferences, and you zone out because why would you give a shit, all you want to talk about is your favorite new game, the one your agent just made for you,

Bugs, Yaoist@bugsmaytrix.bsky.social · 4d ago

maybe i'm old fashion but the coolest thing about video games is being taken to new worlds that i hadn't thought up and experiencing something exciting that the artists behind the game want to show me

Paul Ifeanyichukwu Gabriel @ @...•2h Can you explain to me like a 5 yrs old ? Nikita Bier @nikitabier • 2h Every video game -- and every piece of software -- will be personalized exactly to your preferences.
Will Oremus@willoremus.com · last wk.

feels like there is a group of smart and well-intentioned people who long ago made up their minds that AI Is Bad, swore off using it, and now get all their info about AI from each other. not saying they're wrong that ai is bad! but i think they're gradually losing touch with what it is and does

Colin@colin-fraser.net · 2w ago

I really wasn’t trying to start a fight with Prof. Bender but now that she has created a long thread subtweeting me and her disciples are all yelling at me, let me just say that this is the crux right here. She seems to respond as though I am describing something a priori impossible.

antirez@antirez.bsky.social · 2w ago

I'm worried to see people that think the right move is to question AI companies and narratives around AI regardless of logic and the actual significance of events we are living. They act just as an inverted flock, but still a flock. Sometimes it's fear of friends judgement.

Simon Willison@simonwillison.net · 3w ago

Being a computer scientist who refuses to find anything about LLMs interesting right now is a bit like being a geneticist who refuses to find anything interesting about the recently opened Jurassic Park

antirez@antirez.bsky.social · 4w ago

At this point DwarfStar contains many fast fused kernels for important model families: feel free to steal everything you want from there according to the MIT license, in order to improve your own implementation.

antirez@antirez.bsky.social · 4w ago

Qwen3.8 Flash Next is now supported in DwarfStar, covering 64GB Mac systems very well and with very fast inference of 50~70 t/s and > 1400 t/s prefill. For now this is Metal only. Thanks to @ivanfioravanti.bsky.social for all the cool work in the PR. N-grams on SSD like for DS4.1F.

kira ☆@kira.ws · last mo.

the czosndog has a whole family behind it. grandmother: the zapiekanka. open baguette, mushrooms, cheese, ketchup, sold from windows on kraków's plac nowy since the 70s. communism's answer to pizza.

antirez@antirez.bsky.social · last mo.

DwarfStar running DeepSeek v4.1 Flash on a 128GB M5 Max at steady 15 t/s. I didn't expect with SSD streaming it could be so fast. Recent SSD streaming changes to retain the right experts surely helped, but also maybe DS4.1 uses the same experts more. Will push online when ready QA > ASAP.

antirez@antirez.bsky.social · last mo.

DwarfStar in the latest two weeks was improved in almost every aspect for Metal, DGX Spark and Strix Halo. It is simpler to say: update, you will hopefully see speed and correctness improvements in many areas. Also DSpark with DeepSeek v4 Flash now works much better overall.

daniel@daniel-j-h.bsky.social · 2mo ago

how do #LLM #AI samplers from the last five years (e.g. top-n-sigma) behave on quantized weights / kv cache, of varying degrees? in the context of coding agents? let's read MaDiqXx99's post on /r/LocalLlama as the authorative source