Debt levels, incompetent and corrupt governments, expensive wars, deep social divides, technological change - yes, all that. But the 1780s were also a pretty wacky decade climate-wise. Keep an eye on El Nino. This year's weather has already been extraordinary. It's likely to get worse.

David Herdson@davidherdson.bsky.social · 2h ago

I get that the media and many pundits like to make comparisons with the 1920s and 30s. Yes, plenty to go at there. But we can also learn from the run-up to, and aftermath of, other financial and political crises. Personally, I think a bit more focus on France in the 1780s would be beneficial.

I get that the media and many pundits like to make comparisons with the 1920s and 30s. Yes, plenty to go at there. But we can also learn from the run-up to, and aftermath of, other financial and political crises. Personally, I think a bit more focus on France in the 1780s would be beneficial.

Great work by Kent opposition councillors!

Kent Current@kentcurrent.news · 9h ago

We're in Rotten Boroughs in the latest Private Eye!

The El Nino event will have a political impact beyond the weather disasters, whether short-term floods and storms or longer-term droughts, and the response to them. It will hit some economies hard, which - in turn - will feed into discontent. As if we need more. But this is the new world.

David Herdson@davidherdson.bsky.social · 6h ago

This is not good. This year's El Nino global climate events is heading to be far more powerful than anything ever recorded, which has impacts for extreme weather the world over. Very bad for wildlife, very bad for people, very bad for agriculture.

This is not good. This year's El Nino global climate events is heading to be far more powerful than anything ever recorded, which has impacts for extreme weather the world over. Very bad for wildlife, very bad for people, very bad for agriculture.

Met4Cast@met4cast.net · 11h ago

The latest El Niño forecast by the ECM is suggesting a record shattering +4°C event. Impacts; - Record breaking global warmth (1.7-1.8°C) - Catastrophic marine heatwaves Potential to be one of the most disruptive climate anomalies we’ve ever observed.

Interesting that the two leaders of the populist insurgent parties both have very high negatives. Suggests they may struggle to rise from their current positions, never mind recent peaks they've come off.

Luke Tryl@luketryl.bsky.social · 11h ago

Burnham’s gross positive approval of 39% compares to 32% for Badenoch, 26% for Farage, 21% for Davey and 16% for Polanski. Farage and Polanski have higher negatives 51% and 44%:

Interesting move from Polanski to wade in on the Tory ex-neoNazi candidate - on the side of the candidate. Particularly without bothering to check the details first. I doubt the public will notice this one but at some point Polanski will do the same sort of thing again and it will blow up mightily.

Andy Burnham Accepter@jorisbinned.bsky.social · 12h ago

Hello I'm an idiot

Two interviews today - one from Thames Valley Police Federation, one from its Chief Constable - giving the impression that the first duty of police is to protect their own, not the public, and that the law should be whatever they think it should be. The police are public servants not its masters.

Two possibilities. 1. Rubio is exaggerating. 2. There is a deal and it includes Palestine and the other issues of the war. I don't really see why Iran would give up their trump card without winning concessions. So, if it is (2), what are the details?

Shipwreck@shipwreck75.bsky.social · yesterday

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio: There has been progress in talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but no final agreement has been reached yet. We are hopeful that an agreement will be finalized very shortly.

This is what happens when anti-racism norms erode, and elites bear a lot of the responsibility for norm erosion, as they have disproportionate power to set and enforce norms

Charles EP Murphy@cepmurphy.bsky.social · 2d ago

news.sky.com/story/nhs-st... stereotypically this has been seen as Old People, but not only would the old people of now have often been born post-Windrush, lot of this will be younger people who've always lived in a diverse Britain. The guy with a pregnant wife likely millennial at oldest

I see the markets have drawn a similar conclusion. Oil down by $6/barrel since this report came out. However, I don't think they're quite right. Just because the US can't fight as it has doesn't mean Iran will lift the blockade. Trump will *hate* caving and so the standoff could go on a while yet.

David Herdson@davidherdson.bsky.social · 2d ago

That blustering from Trump about how America would hit Iran harder than any country had been hit since WW2 if they didn't agree to his latest demands has a few practical problems. This shortage should also prevent him starting any other madcap adventures soon. www.reuters.com/world/us-has...

Well, this feels a very literal solution.

That blustering from Trump about how America would hit Iran harder than any country had been hit since WW2 if they didn't agree to his latest demands has a few practical problems. This shortage should also prevent him starting any other madcap adventures soon. www.reuters.com/world/us-has...

Quick note: I don't take seriously anyone who talks about Reform UK as a 'company'. A party's structure is its own business. It's a bubble mindset to believe parties can only exist with a Byzantine committee structure and composite motions. The essence of a party is in it campaigning for election.

I've just re-read my thread written the day after the Gorton & Denton by-election in February. I think it's stood up fairly well, both in its analysis at the time and in its predictions.

David Herdson@davidherdson.bsky.social · 5mo ago

Gorton & Denton result thread. The tl;dr summary: very good for Green and Reform but their success will (or should) bring with it greater scrutiny which they aren't prepared for; terrible for everyone else, for differing reasons.

Clacton you’re letting us down. You’re letting the country down. And mostly, you’re letting yourselves down.

Election Maps UK@electionmaps.uk · 2d ago

Clacton By-Election Voting Intention: ➡️ RFM: 73% (+27) 🗑️ CBF: 20% (New) 🟥 REC: 2% (New) ⚫ Others: 5% (-49) Via @survation.bsky.social, 16-24 Jul. Changes w/ GE2024.

I've seen several petrol stations near me with no fuel the last few days. Just wondering if this is a random coincidence or whether supplies are running thin? Petrol (though not diesel) prices are certainly at their highest since the Trump War began.

It's great to have a government that actually has a sense of what it wants to be doing. I won't necessarily agree with it all (or probably very often, in fact) - though I very much do on its devolution agenda. But it's a damn sight better than the reactive drift of Starmer.

Rob Johnson@rjson.bsky.social · 6d ago

The tax retention news is so big it has overshadowed some of chunky stuff in the press release that complements it and fills out the devolution strategy pursued by the new PM. Some initial reactions by me and some @centreforcities.bsky.social thinking below to get you started 👇

On the face of it, this seems like really good news. But. 1. It's very much at odds with the US-Israel/Iran&proxies war. How to reconcile that? 2. Details, please. 3. What does Israel say? 4. It runs counter to recent Hamas actions. So, IMO, someone's being played. www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cl...

Hamas agrees to Trump's plan to disarm in Gaza, official tells BBC, with Israel yet to comment

A senior Hamas official said the group had agreed to the plan - announced by the US president late on Thursday - and an official statement would follow.

bbc.co.uk

This information pollution is spectacularly irresponsible from Google (as well as another example of needless internet enshittification). Anyone with malign intent can now doctor images with AI. This has massive potential to generate fake news, distorted public opinion and even govt policy.

Eliot Higgins@eliothiggins.bsky.social · 6d ago

Google Earth, a tool often used as a source of satellite imagery to verify photos and videos, has added a feature that allows you to alter satellite imagery with AI, for reasons. blog.google/products-and...

Excellent. It would be nice if this was the end of Infantino.

Sky News@news.sky.com · 6d ago

European nations agree to boycott World Cup if FIFA goes ahead with World Cup sell-off

If Farage's career ends up in him being beaten by a dustbin in a by-election he called himself, it will quite possibly be the funniest thing in British politics ever. Also, fully deserved.

I feel Russia bombing Poland (even if accidentally, probably), should be getting more media attention than it is. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Missile that left crater deep inside Poland was probably Russian - Polish PM Tusk

The missile left a 10m-wide (33ft) crater a short distance from the village of Tarnawa Kolonia, about 100km from the border with Ukraine.

bbc.co.uk

This 'uniparty' talk of Farage is US-influenced social media bubble. I don't think it cuts through here because we have a much more diverse party structure (of which Farage has been part for 30+ years). I'd add that doorstep conversations is normal campaigning. You don't need a by-election for it.

Tyron@tyron.bsky.social · 7d ago

Kind of a mental line from Farage on why it's so good for him to be fighting the Clacton by-election. Reform shouldn't ever have needed to be seriously fighting Clacton at the next general election if they were remotely on track to be the next opposition, let alone the government?

In ten of the years between 1945-90, the peak UK summer temperature was less than 30C. That hasn't happened at all since 1993. The last year in which the peak temperature was below 32C was 2009. Only two years in the last twelve had a maximum below 34C.

Met Office - weather and climate@metoffice.gov.uk · last wk.

Temperatures reached 35.2°C today, marking the 7th day of 2026 where the UK has recorded 35°C or higher 👇 Prior to this year, the record was 5 days of ≥35°C, set in 1976 and 2020 🌡️

I don't have a paid subscription to him but from everything of Phillips's I have read, he's on the money here. Iran *is* toying with the US and refusing to let it do a stable deal as it continually ratchets up the price. It's very Trump-like, except here it's Iran that holds the cards.

Phillips OBrien@phillipspobrien.bsky.social · last wk.

Latest Midweek Update is out. Iran toyed with the USA this week. Trump continues to want out of the war, but Iran escalated. Their strategy seems pretty sophisticated and the end result is looking even worse for the USA. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

Polanski refusing to apologise is a mistake. What he's saying is that it's ok to be reckless with people's safety if you don't like them and if they themselves have behaved stupidly or badly. Plus, he's in the wrong here. Keeping the story running is also a mistake. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Polanski says guillotine re-post was mistake but refuses to apologise

The Green leader re-posted a photo of a man wearing a guillotine t-shirt and the name Nigel.

bbc.co.uk

A reminder that Trump is *so* devoid of any moral, ethical or legal restraint that not only do such considerations not affect his own actions (obviously) but he will actively boast about theft or corruption we he thinks he can justify it as in the raw national interest.

Mark Chadbourn@chadbourn.bsky.social · last wk.

Trump to press on Airforce One: “We are taking billions and billions of dollars from Venezuela. “That will happen with Iran too.”

In and among Trump's usual rants, delusions and threats, something interesting. This feels like a direct threat to Netanhayu and Israel - which would be both justified and in keeping with Trump's character so we should take this one seriously.

Mark Chadbourn@chadbourn.bsky.social · last wk.

Trump: “We have been very nice to a lot of countries that wouldn't survive without us. “You know who wouldn't survive without us? Israel.”

This feels very 1944 Education Act, which might have been right eighty years ago but contained serious flaws and was essentially dumped half a century ago because of them and the changing world. And it's changed a lot more since. Not to mention there's a big question as to exactly how you do it.

Laura McInerney@missmc.bsky.social · last wk.

Don’t worry, I’m sure they’ve thought through how this will be staffed, funded, and the class size implications for GCSE options. They learned that from the last time, right? RIGHT? www.tes.com/magazine/new...