Rajiv Sethi
@rajivsethi.bsky.social
Economics | Barnard | Columbia | Santa Fe Institute | http://www.columbia.edu/~rs328/ | https://rajivsethi.substack.com/ | https://tinyurl.com/shadowsofdoubt
New post: Artificial Traders in Real Markets rajivsethi.substack.com/p/artificial...
Artificial Traders in Real Markets
Like countless other folks I’ve been trying to grapple with the implications of what happened at Open AI over the past couple of months—agents broke out of solitary confinement, established communicat...
rajivsethi.substack.com
Great conversation with Elliott Morris on prediction markets and elections, covered a lot of interesting ground: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/everything...
Everything you wanted to know about prediction markets, with Rajiv Sethi
Are markets better than pollsters? Why did the whiff on the pope so bad?
gelliottmorris.com
Applications for the 2027 Complexity Postdoctoral Fellowships are open! Katrin Schmelz just completed SFI’s Complexity Postdoctoral Fellowship, and she reflects on what the experience meant to her. Deadline: September 30, 2026 Requirements & application: santafe.edu/sfifellowship
New post on a forthcoming book open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
A Book Contract and Other Updates
Back in late June I signed a contract with Princeton University Press for a trade book, Engines of Prophecy: The Power and Perils of Prediction Markets. I think it will be broadly accessible and fun t...
open.substack.com
Former CASBS fellow @jacksonmatthewo.bsky.social is on-site today, presenting at our summer Institute on AI Methods for Social Scientists So we're plugging Matt's recent appearance on the CASBS podcast in conversation w/2025-26 CASBS fellow @rajivsethi.bsky.social Awesome episode - check it out ⬇️
Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences, Stanford@casbsstanford.bsky.social · 4mo ago🎙️ NEW CASBS PODCAST EPISODE "Network Science's Chief Economist" Former CASBS fellow @jacksonmatthewo.bsky.social chats w/current fellow @rajivsethi.bsky.social on Matt's foundational work & empirical applications of the economics of networks & new work w/LLMs 🎧 casbs.stanford.edu/podcast#matt...
Just signed a contract with @princetonupress.bsky.social for a trade book -- Engines of Prophecy: The Power and Perils of Prediction Markets (details to come on my substack)
Universities must find ways to prevent the atrophy of traditional skills while helping students acquire new competences that leverage the enormous power of artificial intelligence, writes @rajivsethi.bsky.social in his Substack. Otherwise, students will have been let down by those universities.
Rajiv Sethi@rajivsethi.bsky.social · 4mo agoNew post on the pressures squeezing American higher education open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
New post on the pressures squeezing American higher education open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
A Pincer Grip
The following remarks were prepared for delivery to the board of the Teagle Foundation a couple of weeks ago.
open.substack.com
New post on a recent conversation with Matt Jackson open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
A Conversation with Matt Jackson
Back in February of this year I had the opportunity to speak with Matt Jackson for the Human Centered podcast. This is the official podcast of the Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences ...
open.substack.com
Fantastic conference later this week in honor of Andrew Gelman @columbiauniversity.bsky.social @statmodeling.bsky.social gelman60.com/schedule
Schedule | Gelman 60-ish Workshop
Schedule — Gelman 60-ish Workshop.
gelman60.com
🎙️ NEW CASBS PODCAST EPISODE "Network Science's Chief Economist" Former CASBS fellow @jacksonmatthewo.bsky.social chats w/current fellow @rajivsethi.bsky.social on Matt's foundational work & empirical applications of the economics of networks & new work w/LLMs 🎧 casbs.stanford.edu/podcast#matt...
Trust-building in prediction markets Polymarket's main prediction market seeks re-entry into the U.S. Approval must be conditioned on some form of identity verification, writes CASBS fellow @rajivsethi.bsky.social in @financialtimes.com . Rajiv outlines three approaches www.ft.com/content/c461...
Polymarket anonymity must end
Without identity checks, prediction market regulation will be toothless
ft.com
“A more sophisticated trader would have been harder to catch, given the absence of identity verification on Polymarket,” says CASBS fellow @rajivsethi.bsky.social , consulted in this @wsj.com piece on recent prediction market controversies www.wsj.com/finance/curr...
Arrest of U.S. Soldier Signals Polymarket’s Wild-West Days Are Ending
The case against Gannon Ken Van Dyke marks the first U.S. prosecution for insider trading in prediction markets.
wsj.com
Really insightful, original, and well-written piece on prediction markets... I've been speaking with a lot of journalists recently about these issues and the conversation with @miasato.bsky.social was among the most engaging:
Mia Sato@miasato.bsky.social · 6mo agoNew: You’ve seen the X posts claiming to find “insiders” on Polymarket. Some may be legit, but many more are potentially bogus, often marked as ads. False flag insider trading has become lucrative — for traders and prediction market exchanges. Gift link: www.theverge.com/business/905...
Information bleeds across venues, with insider trading on one exchange (Polymarket, where trader identities are not known even to the platform) leading to insider-like trading elsewhere, as CASBS fellow @rajivsethi.bsky.social elucidates in his latest - and always insightful - Substack post
Rajiv Sethi@rajivsethi.bsky.social · 6mo agoNew post on information contagion across venues: open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
An interesting possibility I had not considered, re: the apparent insider trading around the Iran war and other Trump admin actions.
Rajiv Sethi@rajivsethi.bsky.social · 6mo agoNew post on information contagion across venues: open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
I'm grateful to the @umich.edu PPE program for their invitation to deliver the 2026 PPE lecture. I spoke about The Interpretation of Signals, based on a book I'm working on while in residence at @casbsstanford.bsky.social Link to video: youtu.be/Mb0mOMsIkdU?...
2026 PPE Lecture - The Interpretation of Signals
YouTube video by University of Michigan
youtu.be
On prediction markets, do follow @rajivsethi.bsky.social , see this , substack.com/@rajivsethi/...
Rajiv Sethi (@rajivsethi)
New post: Trading on Violence
substack.com
On Polymarket, transactions are visible but identities are not. This invites not only insider trading but also, as recent events suggest, potential betting directly on & profiting from geopolitical violence, as CASBS fellow @rajivsethi.bsky.social explains ➡️ rajivsethi.substack.com/p/trading-on...
Trading on Violence
Insider trading on prediction markets is turning into a dog-bites-man type of story.
rajivsethi.substack.com
I'll be giving the annual PPE lecture at @umich.edu next week in case you're in the area and would like to attend, details here: share.google/NOT06HLeEuUo...
All Events | U-M LSA Philosophy
share.google
There often are hidden/unclear meanings conveyed by myriad forms of expression. In an info-rich environment, how to interpret that info in a world of diverse perspectives? @rajivsethi.bsky.social is delving into these thorny issues in a book, parts of which he discussed in his CASBS fellows seminar
CASBS fellow @rajivsethi.bsky.social emitted exceedingly strong expert vibe (CASBS branding, no doubt) in his Thursday appearance on the PBS Newshour @pbsnews.org discussing prediction markets - a hot topic now but something Rajiv has studied for two decades WATCH: www.youtube.com/live/2iBPeOZ...
Joined @pbsnews.org with Paul Solman @justinwolfers.bsky.social and Yesha Yadav to discuss prediction markets: www.youtube.com/live/2iBPeOZ...
PBS News Hour live episode, Feb. 19, 2026
YouTube video by PBS NewsHour
youtube.com
Last week we hosted a terrific, wide-ranging conversation between 2005-06 CASBS fellow @jacksonmatthewo.bsky.social & current fellow @rajivsethi.bsky.social for our podcast, Human Centered. We'll release the episode in the spring. Until then, follow Human Centered on your favorite podcast app 🎙️🎧
A very educational reminder from @rajivsethi.bsky.social that (and why, and how) markets --including prediction markets-- are rarely purely about information integration, and you read them as such at your own peril.
The Second Coming
The price of a contract that pays a dollar if Jesus Christ returns this year is currently trading at about four cents on Polymarket, up from about two cents in early January:
rajivsethi.substack.com