Former CASBS fellow @jacksonmatthewo.bsky.social is on-site today, presenting at our summer Institute on AI Methods for Social Scientists So we're plugging Matt's recent appearance on the CASBS podcast in conversation w/2025-26 CASBS fellow @rajivsethi.bsky.social Awesome episode - check it out ⬇️

Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences, Stanford@casbsstanford.bsky.social · 3mo ago

🎙️ NEW CASBS PODCAST EPISODE "Network Science's Chief Economist" Former CASBS fellow @jacksonmatthewo.bsky.social chats w/current fellow @rajivsethi.bsky.social on Matt's foundational work & empirical applications of the economics of networks & new work w/LLMs 🎧 casbs.stanford.edu/podcast#matt...

Just signed a contract with @princetonupress.bsky.social for a trade book -- Engines of Prophecy: The Power and Perils of Prediction Markets (details to come on my substack)

Universities must find ways to prevent the atrophy of traditional skills while helping students acquire new competences that leverage the enormous power of artificial intelligence, writes @rajivsethi.bsky.social in his Substack. Otherwise, students will have been let down by those universities.

Rajiv Sethi@rajivsethi.bsky.social · 2mo ago

New post on the pressures squeezing American higher education open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...

New post on the pressures squeezing American higher education open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...

A Pincer Grip

The following remarks were prepared for delivery to the board of the Teagle Foundation a couple of weeks ago.

open.substack.com

New post on a recent conversation with Matt Jackson open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...

A Conversation with Matt Jackson

Back in February of this year I had the opportunity to speak with Matt Jackson for the Human Centered podcast. This is the official podcast of the Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences ...

open.substack.com

Fantastic conference later this week in honor of Andrew Gelman @columbiauniversity.bsky.social @statmodeling.bsky.social gelman60.com/schedule

🎙️ NEW CASBS PODCAST EPISODE "Network Science's Chief Economist" Former CASBS fellow @jacksonmatthewo.bsky.social chats w/current fellow @rajivsethi.bsky.social on Matt's foundational work & empirical applications of the economics of networks & new work w/LLMs 🎧 casbs.stanford.edu/podcast#matt...

Trust-building in prediction markets Polymarket's main prediction market seeks re-entry into the U.S. Approval must be conditioned on some form of identity verification, writes CASBS fellow @rajivsethi.bsky.social in @financialtimes.com . Rajiv outlines three approaches www.ft.com/content/c461...

Polymarket anonymity must end

Without identity checks, prediction market regulation will be toothless

ft.com

“A more sophisticated trader would have been harder to catch, given the absence of identity verification on Polymarket,” says CASBS fellow @rajivsethi.bsky.social , consulted in this @wsj.com piece on recent prediction market controversies www.wsj.com/finance/curr...

Arrest of U.S. Soldier Signals Polymarket’s Wild-West Days Are Ending

The case against Gannon Ken Van Dyke marks the first U.S. prosecution for insider trading in prediction markets.

wsj.com

Really insightful, original, and well-written piece on prediction markets... I've been speaking with a lot of journalists recently about these issues and the conversation with @miasato.bsky.social was among the most engaging:

Mia Sato@miasato.bsky.social · 4mo ago

New: You’ve seen the X posts claiming to find “insiders” on Polymarket. Some may be legit, but many more are potentially bogus, often marked as ads. False flag insider trading has become lucrative — for traders and prediction market exchanges. Gift link: www.theverge.com/business/905...

Information bleeds across venues, with insider trading on one exchange (Polymarket, where trader identities are not known even to the platform) leading to insider-like trading elsewhere, as CASBS fellow @rajivsethi.bsky.social elucidates in his latest - and always insightful - Substack post

Rajiv Sethi@rajivsethi.bsky.social · 4mo ago

New post on information contagion across venues: open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...

An interesting possibility I had not considered, re: the apparent insider trading around the Iran war and other Trump admin actions.

Rajiv Sethi@rajivsethi.bsky.social · 4mo ago

New post on information contagion across venues: open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...

New post on information contagion across venues: open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...

Information Contagion

At around 6:50am ET on March 24, there was an unusually large spike in trading volume in oil and stock futures markets.

open.substack.com

I'm grateful to the @umich.edu PPE program for their invitation to deliver the 2026 PPE lecture. I spoke about The Interpretation of Signals, based on a book I'm working on while in residence at @casbsstanford.bsky.social Link to video: youtu.be/Mb0mOMsIkdU?...

2026 PPE Lecture - The Interpretation of Signals

YouTube video by University of Michigan

youtu.be

On prediction markets, do follow @rajivsethi.bsky.social , see this , substack.com/@rajivsethi/...

Rajiv Sethi (@rajivsethi)

New post: Trading on Violence

substack.com

On Polymarket, transactions are visible but identities are not. This invites not only insider trading but also, as recent events suggest, potential betting directly on & profiting from geopolitical violence, as CASBS fellow @rajivsethi.bsky.social explains ➡️ rajivsethi.substack.com/p/trading-on...

Trading on Violence

Insider trading on prediction markets is turning into a dog-bites-man type of story.

rajivsethi.substack.com

New post: Trading on Violence open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...

Trading on Violence

Insider trading on prediction markets is turning into a dog-bites-man type of story.

open.substack.com

I'll be giving the annual PPE lecture at @umich.edu next week in case you're in the area and would like to attend, details here: share.google/NOT06HLeEuUo...

There often are hidden/unclear meanings conveyed by myriad forms of expression. In an info-rich environment, how to interpret that info in a world of diverse perspectives? @rajivsethi.bsky.social is delving into these thorny issues in a book, parts of which he discussed in his CASBS fellows seminar

Informative @pbsnews.org segment on prediction markets youtu.be/F80iYxdYxnw?...

Why prediction markets are thriving – and facing scrutiny

YouTube video by PBS NewsHour

youtu.be

On AI and the tariff case open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...

Claude (Anthropic) on the Tariff Case

There’s so much information now available at our fingertips, and we face increasingly frequent and challenging decisions regarding the allocation of time and attention.

open.substack.com

CASBS fellow @rajivsethi.bsky.social emitted exceedingly strong expert vibe (CASBS branding, no doubt) in his Thursday appearance on the PBS Newshour @pbsnews.org discussing prediction markets - a hot topic now but something Rajiv has studied for two decades WATCH: www.youtube.com/live/2iBPeOZ...

Joined @pbsnews.org with Paul Solman @justinwolfers.bsky.social and Yesha Yadav to discuss prediction markets: www.youtube.com/live/2iBPeOZ...

PBS News Hour live episode, Feb. 19, 2026

YouTube video by PBS NewsHour

youtube.com

Last week we hosted a terrific, wide-ranging conversation between 2005-06 CASBS fellow @jacksonmatthewo.bsky.social & current fellow @rajivsethi.bsky.social for our podcast, Human Centered. We'll release the episode in the spring. Until then, follow Human Centered on your favorite podcast app 🎙️🎧

A very educational reminder from @rajivsethi.bsky.social that (and why, and how) markets --including prediction markets-- are rarely purely about information integration, and you read them as such at your own peril.

The Second Coming

The price of a contract that pays a dollar if Jesus Christ returns this year is currently trading at about four cents on Polymarket, up from about two cents in early January:

rajivsethi.substack.com

The price in a market referencing a miraculous or impossible event cannot possibly influence the objective probability of the event. But that's not the case for markets referencing, for example, elections, writes CASBS fellow @rajivsethi.bsky.social in this crisp Substack post

Rajiv Sethi@rajivsethi.bsky.social · 6mo ago

New post on markets that reference other markets open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...

New post on markets that reference other markets open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...

The Second Coming

The price of a contract that pays a dollar if Jesus Christ returns this year is currently trading at about four cents on Polymarket, up from about two cents in early January:

open.substack.com

Nice to see CASBS fellow @rajivsethi.bsky.social represented in this list of notable research

SSRN@ssrn.bsky.social · 6mo ago

Check out the latest from the SSRN #blog which includes a selection of the latest research on #cryptocurreny submitted to SSRN in 2025. Read more: spkl.io/63324ASWYe #AcademicChatter #crypto

Check out the latest from the SSRN #blog which includes a selection of the latest research on #cryptocurreny submitted to SSRN in 2025. Read more: spkl.io/63324ASWYe #AcademicChatter #crypto

The Latest Research on Cryptocurrency

This list includes a selection of the latest research on cryptocurrency posted to SSRN in 2025. On the Impossibility of Transparent and Decentralized DeFi Trading by Hanna Halaburda (New York Unive…

spkl.io

PPE Lecture Series: Rajiv Sethi (Columbia) | U-M LSA Philosophy, Politics and Economics share.google/MonOg0POYBSd...