Relative Nino3 El Nino index over +4C (four degrees). Never seen that in my professional lifetime. Unbelievable... but also not. Latest BoM data: www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso...

Really happy to see our paper published! Many thanks to Mat and all my co-authors for their support throughout this work!

Mat Collins@matcollins.bsky.social · 5d ago

New paper - Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Atmospheric Adjustments Drive Long‐Term Weakening of the Zonal Sea Surface Temperature Gradient in the Tropical Atlantic. By Hairong Liu et al. agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epub/10....

New paper - Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Atmospheric Adjustments Drive Long‐Term Weakening of the Zonal Sea Surface Temperature Gradient in the Tropical Atlantic. By Hairong Liu et al. agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epub/10....

Indonesia fire emissions up to 15 October shows 2026 staying close to previous El Niño years of 2019 & 2006 but a little behind 2015. #CopernicusAtmosphere GFASv1.2 data available via Fire Emissions Watch apps.atmosphere.copernicus.eu/fire-emissio... @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social @ecmwf.int

Deeply, deeply horrifying to research the last super El Nino, but has underscored how grateful we should all be for how much better prepared we are today www.newscientist.com/article/2592...

Why the worst El Niño killed millions – and how we can avoid a repeat | New Scientist

The world hasn't experienced an El Niño this strong since the 1870s, when it sparked a terrible global famine. Are we better prepared this time?

newscientist.com

The central Pacific Ocean just broke a temperature record. Experts say it might signal a new kind of El Niño. www.livescience.com/planet-earth...

The central Pacific Ocean just broke a temperature record. Experts say it might signal a new kind of El Niño.

The sea surface temperature in a key El Niño region has exceeded 86 degrees F for the first time on record, hinting that the strength and location of some El Niño events are transforming.

livescience.com

More on this developing super El Niño www.livescience.com/planet-earth...

The central Pacific Ocean just broke a temperature record. Experts say it might signal a new kind of El Niño.

The sea surface temperature in a key El Niño region has exceeded 86 degrees F for the first time on record, hinting that the strength and location of some El Niño events are transforming.

livescience.com

Well, actual sea surface temperatures have now passed 30°C (86°F) in the key Niño 3.4 monitoring region for the first time in this data record... 😱 Sign up for next week's state of the climate briefing: climatecentral-org.zoom.us/webinar/regi.... Bring your questions, like on this historic El Niño!

Our new paper is out! We’re trying to answer the question: what do complex computer models of the climate tell us about the real world? www.frontiersin.org/journals/cli...

Frontiers | Using climate models in climate assessments: a Bayesian perspective

Outputs from complex Earth system models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) are a major source of information for polic...

frontiersin.org

Europe didnt just experience an exceptionally hot summer in 2026. It experienced a summer where multiple climate extremes reinforced each other. First - temperature records were broken at daily, monthly and seasonal scales across Europe Read more: climate.copernicus.eu/summer-revie...

🌍 The CLIVAR Confronting Earth System Model Trends and Multidecadal Variability with Observations Research Focus (CEMT-MV) is pleased to announce the CMIP7 Hackathon 2027! 📅 6–8 January 2027 📍 Boulder, Taipei and Tokyo 📝 Application deadline: 24 October 2026 🔗 ncar.github.io/CMIP7_hackat...

A colleague made this AI graphic to go along with my interview on El Nino and Climate Change - www.theguardian.com/environment/...

Long-form interview with Jon Watts in the Guardian about El Niño and climate change. Including the new concept of the ocean ‘vomiting’ heat into the atmosphere. What is El Niño, what causes it and can we reduce the risks? www.theguardian.com/environment/...

What is El Niño, what causes it and can we reduce the risks?

This year’s ‘godzilla’ climate phenomenon has already broken temperature records. We ask a climate scientist what is happening

theguardian.com

New version of the HadCRUT global temperature dataset released @colinmorice.bsky.social HadCRUT5.2 uses HadSST4.2 (with improved adjustments for SST biases during 1933-1961) and CRUTEM5.2 (with updates to stations in China, USA and Canada). Here is the difference from the previous version 5.1

August 2026 was the warmest August ever recorded globally and the warmest month on record El Niño is pushing temperatures higher, but these records are occurring in a climate that has already been fundamentally altered by decades of burning fossil fuels heating our planet #Climate 🧪⚒️🌊

📢 Our #CLIVAR August Bulletin is Out Now! 🌍✨Stay updated with the latest news, open calls, webinar series and exciting opportunities for early-career researchers! Don’t miss out-subscribe to receive our monthly updates! mailchi.mp/clivar.org/c...

New paper "Hemispheric divergent trends in winter temperature drop days" by Hao Wang et al. Looking at changes in cold days when you have to go back in the house to get a bigger coat. rdcu.be/fAlwC

Hemispheric divergent trends in winter temperature drop days

Communications Earth & Environment - Occurrence of winter temperature drop days increased in North America but declined in Europe over the past four decades due to changes in tropospheric polar...

rdcu.be

New study showing hot days over tropical land are projected to warm faster than the average day (bad news for climate impacts) 🌡️🔥🥵 Amplified warming of hot days is explained by the drier-get-drier theory (see: www.nature.com/articles/s41...) agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

Projections of Earth's Hottest Surface Temperatures in CMIP6

CMIP6 captures the broad spatial pattern of p99(Tmax) versus Berkeley Earth, supporting projections of record-like heat Tropical extremes amplify: TDM and TDX warm ∼30%–40% faster than TTL in SSP...

agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com

We are hiring! Join our dynamic team in Qingdao, China, and support international science for ocean and climate. More information: www.clivar.org/news/positio...

Starting soon! Join the Pacific Region Panel to learn about large ensembles used to gain insights into the ENSO! Join here: meet.goto.com/Internationa...

Just published, our paper for the 75th anniversary issue of #Tellus. It offers an improved way to quantify carbon cycle feedbacks on climate change, recognising sink saturation at high CO2. doi.org/10.16993/tel...

A New Method for Characterising Carbon Cycle Sensitivities in Earth System Models | Tellus

doi.org

Blog post by my @exeter.ac.uk colleague Tim Taylor on how drought affects health in the UK netpositivecentre.com/news/what-im...

What impact does drought have on health in the United Kingdom?   - Net Positive Centre

Half of England is currently experiencing drought according to the Environment Agency. In this blog, Professor Tim Taylor reflects on the health consequences of drought in the UK context.   There are ...

netpositivecentre.com

Left: "traditional" Niño 3.4 SST anomalies since 1 January - much larger than in any other year. Right: "relative Niño index", made by subtracting the mean tropical SST anomaly shows that 2026 is similar to 1997. The coming record temperatures are thus due to global warming. Source: cyclonicwx.com.

The International CLIVAR Project Office is hiring a Staff Scientist. Apply by 17 Aug 2026 Join the international CLIVAR community and support global ocean and climate research coordination. Applications should be sent to icpo@clivar.org. More information: https://loom.ly/rwFriq8

Wednesday El Niño update - Some notable warming across a large part of the eastern half of the tropical Pacific Ocean during the last 7 days. And an ongoing strong westerly wind burst will continue to strengthen El Niño even further toward record territory. Data from NOAA OISSTv2.1. 🌊

The call for nominations to the CLIVAR Panels and Scientific Steering Group (SSG) is now open! Nomination deadline: 16 August 2026, 23:59 UTC Submit a nomination here: https://loom.ly/YZQ8DOs More information here: https://loom.ly/5uKtXJU #ClimateScience #CLIVAR #WCRP

A week late but excited to share @nationalacademies.org report on Attribution of Extreme Events and their Impacts. Had the opportunity to work with amazing colleagues to reflect on the incredible progress in EEA and review the breadth of applications @climate-done.bsky.social @jmarlon.bsky.social

Attribution of Extreme Weather and Climate Events and Their Impacts

Decades of data and research indicate that human-caused climate change is altering the frequency and intensity of several types of extreme events, such as heat waves and extreme rainfall events. Even...

nationalacademies.org

We are currently advertising for a two-year postdoc post as part of our @leverhulme.ac.uk-funded Seeing the Unseen project. Deadline is the 11th of August, and ideally we're aiming for a start date in late September. Please contact me if you'd like further details. www.bath.ac.uk/jobs/Vacancy...

New paper alert ‼️ Changes in atmospheric circulation patterns are - to a large part - responsible for the observed summer drought trend in Europe since 1980. The exact cause for these shifts remains uncertain. www.nature.com/articles/s41... Uni press release: www.uni-leipzig.de/en/newsdetai...