Hungary's Paks nuclear plant is close to complete shutdown due to low water levels on the Danube The river just hit the lowest level in more than a century, amid an ongoing European drought and heatwave
Andrew B. Watkins
@windjunky.bsky.social
Australian climate scientist rambling about climate drivers, variability, risks, trends & impacts. Once played goalie for Antarctica. Born @ 325ppm. https://www.linkedin.com/in/drandrewwatkins/
Excellent and confronting story on the Euro/US fires and climate change, including interview with the @climatecouncil.org.au Greg Mullins, shown last night on @news.abc.net.au 7:30 Report. www.abc.net.au/news/2026-08...
Europe is burning – could Australia be next?
Sarah Ferguson presents Australia's premier daily current affairs program, delivering agenda-setting public affairs journalism and interviews that hold the powerful to account. Plus political analysis...
abc.net.au
Well there goes the +2C El Nino barrier... We are into 'strong' territory www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso...
Fantastic article by the drought crew at UNSW @ccrc.bsky.social. Flash droughts pull huge amounts of moisture from the landscape, intensifying bushfires. Will keep me awake at night thinking about the 'flash droughty' looking Australian spring and summer ahead. theconversation.com/flash-drough...
Flash droughts pull ‘alarming’ amounts of moisture from the landscape and intensify wildfires: new research
We have to stop thinking of droughts simply as a static state of low moisture. Rapid drought changes can send fire risk soaring.
theconversation.com
If not for the first week of July, this would be a very red map... Some ominous signs emerging. www.bom.gov.au/climate/maps...
The supposed cool day this week and it still climbed to 26.8C at Heathrow over 2C warmer than average. Remarkable month the average July high in London has been 29.3C an astonishing +5.4C above 1991-2020 climo and +6.8C on 1961-1990 climate period. Staggering. (1/2)
Loading the dice. The weather conditions driving the devastating fires in Spain were ~20× more likely because of human-caused climate change, and ~2× more likely in France. Of course, the spark matters...but the conditions decide the scale. www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-chan...
Climate change increases likelihood of compounding drivers of severe wildfire conditions in France and Spain – World Weather Attribution
worldweatherattribution.org
Geez, July rainfall in Southern/SE Australia just can’t recover from the millennium drought… July 2026 yet again drier than average…
The first fire-related finding of the parliamentary inquiry into the 2026 Victorian bushfires. [However the National Climate Risk Assessment was not mentioned.] www.parliament.vic.gov.au/4a24fb/conte...
We have to stop thinking of droughts simply as a static state of low moisture. Rapid drought changes can send fire risk soaring.
Flash droughts pull ‘alarming’ amounts of moisture from the landscape and intensify wildfires: new research
theconversation.com
The UK Environment Agency declares ‘Flash Drought’ in the UK - a very rapid drying of the landscape due to low rainfall and high temperatures & evaporation. Flash drought is an emerging problem in Australia and the US, incredible to hear it mentioned in the UK. #newclimate
Ian Hall@ianhall.bsky.social · last wk.More than half of England officially in drought, the Environment Agency says England received just 7% of expected rainfall in July and only 1% in the south. Notably, the news report makes no explicit mention of climate change. Come on, @bbcnewsunofficial.bsky.social www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Temperatures reached 35.2°C today, marking the 7th day of 2026 where the UK has recorded 35°C or higher 👇 Prior to this year, the record was 5 days of ≥35°C, set in 1976 and 2020 🌡️
Me talking about Antarctic sea ice and climate change way back in 1995! On ABC-TV, Tim Bowden 'Breaking the Ice" documentary. www.youtube.com/watch?v=oD5D...
Breaking The Ice with Tim Bowden - Episode 2 - 1996 Australian TV Program
YouTube video by mubd1234's Aussie Media Archive
youtube.com
France is looking very bad in terms of cumulative burnt area - way above both average and past maximum area burned for this time according to the Copernicus Euro Forest Fire Information System forest-fire.emergency.copernicus.eu Country stats: forest-fire.emergency.copernicus.eu/apps/effis.s...
Zeke Hausfather@zekehausfather.com · last wk.Fires in France have now burned over 91,000 acres, by far the most of any year since the satellite record started in 2006. Current area burned is about 34x larger than this date in a typical (median) year:
"Canada’s 2023 wildfire smoke caused a 2.8 percent drop in solar power generation, costing two billion dollars" A new reason to have a state/community/home battery system to adapt to climate risk. www.nature.com/articles/s43...
Canada’s 2023 wildfire smoke caused a 2.8 percent drop in solar power generation, costing two billion dollars - Communications Earth & Environment
Wildfire smoke caused a 6.38 ± 8.86 terawatt hour solar power loss (2.8 percent) and about 1.88-billion-dollar cost, according to an Earth system model comparing simulations with and without wildfire ...
nature.com
Crikey! rNino34 almost 2° already, just shy of ‘strong’ criteria. Typically Nino indices peak in Nov/Dec - more warming to come. www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso...
Was curious how ENSO forecasts did during the 2023-2024 El Nino event. The model plume bracketed the eventual NINO3.4 trajectory fairly well, with some outliers in both directions (e.g. AUS-ACCESS, MetFrance, BCC, CPC Markov) - data from IRI: iri.columbia.edu/our-expertis...
🚨 The AusAlert that will sound on your phone shortly is a test for a future warning system to prepare Australians for fires, floods and other emergencies. But we can’t rely on emergency alerts alone; we need to cut the climate pollution from coal, oil and gas that’s driving these worsening events.
The UK has just recorded its first three week long heatwave on record, based on recent Met Office observations - 21 days at Exeter Airport and Usk beats the record of 17 days at Cambridge in 1976 by 4 days. It has been a notable summer so far, with records continuing to tumble.
IMHO: Sport, recreation and the arts should be included in any systems based approach to climate risk assessment. “This is the third stage of the Tour [de France] to be subjected to prefecture intervention, due to wildfires or a heatwave, in this year’s race." www.theguardian.com/sport/2026/j...
Holiday in the climate emergency. No that’s not AI or edited, just a snapshot I just took with my phone on Lacanau beach in France. What future will this boy grow up in? It is in our hands, but time is running out.
2026 is on track to be the warmest (~35% chance) or second warmest (~63%) year on record, while 2027 is very likely (92% chance) to be the warmest on record on the back of a growing super El Niño event. For more, check out my new Carbon Brief State of the Climate Q2 update: www.carbonbrief.org/...
Time to update the sea surface temperature anomaly maps for the strong El Nino events 1982, 1997, 2015 and 2026. Over 90% of the excess heat from global warming goes into the ocean, making each El Nino world hotter than the last. climatereanalyzer.org/clim/daily_m...
Andrew B. Watkins@windjunky.bsky.social · 2mo agoNotice anything different between the 1 June sea surface temperature maps for the strong El Nino's in 1982, 1997, 2015 and 2026? climatereanalyzer.org/clim/daily_m...
Me talking again about Australian snow and climate change www.sbs.com.au/news/article...
Australia’s winter wonderland is becoming increasingly reliant on a backup plan
An unpredictable season is testing the measures resorts rely on when the snow does not arrive as hoped.
sbs.com.au
Meanwhile... One of Australia’s large air tankers has been on the US west coast fighting their wildfires and we've now sent almost 70 fire fighting personnel.
Guardian Australia@australia.theguardian.com · 2w agoDonald Trump hits Australian exports to US with new higher trade tariff over claims of ‘forced labour’
Aviation contrails with a strong global warming impact mostly form in thin 'cold & humid' parts of the atmosphere. If planes take a short detour to avoid them = much less global warming from aviation. Fantastic article by @hannahritchie.bsky.social hannahritchie.substack.com/p/eliminatin...
"Many climate models predict that human-caused global warming is likely to drive ENSO to a new average state this century, with El Niños becoming larger & occuring more often. But researchers ...debate whether they’ve seen that pattern begin to emerge in the climate data yet" doi.org/10.1038/d415...
This El Niño is set to be the largest on record by a ‘mind-blowing margin’
Forecasters predict that the monster climate pattern will combine with global warming to push global temperatures in 2027 to new heights.
nature.com
Global temperature is now 2nd hottest on record 0.06C below the warmest year (2024). The last week of July is the globes hottest week of the year, hence 2026 could set the world's hottest day on record. (Worlds hottest day 17.16 degC on 22 July 2024; current value 17.03C) pulse.climate.copernicus.eu
