Malte Meinshausen
@meinshausen.bsky.social
The University of Melbourne & Climate Resource
RCP8.5 was never a prophecy; it was the “burn baby burn” pathway. Renewables got cheap, so RCP8.5 is now implausible. Current policy still points near ~3°C, just a smaller disaster. Hopefully 3°C soon looks as implausible as RCP8.5. Maybe even thx to an orange in charge who drives up fossil prices.
US withdrawal from Paris takes effect today. Our new analysis shows progress, and defines the gap to 1.5°C that we can still (and must) close. The report: www.climate-resource.com/reports/ndcs... ; The summary: www.climate-resource.com/reports/ndcs...
climate-resource.com
🇨🇳 📰 NEW | Analysis: #China’s #CO2 #emissions have now been flat or falling for 18 months www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chinas-co2-emissions-have-now-been-flat-or-falling-for-18-months/ @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social w/ @carbonbrief.org
📣 We just released a new free resource at @climatecentral.org - a 72-slide deck introducing key facts about climate change, including its causes, impacts, and solutions. It also comes with speaker notes and links for local storytelling. ➡️ www.climatecentral.org/climate-matt... (English & Spanish)
We have put out some new NDC snapshots. Check them out: www.climate-resource.com/tools/ndcs?v.... The latest is the Chinese NDC that sets an emissions reduction of 7–10% below the peak by 2035, moving from a carbon intensity goal to an absolute target. This enhances transparency and accountability.
Our new brief “Pre-COP30: how are temperatures tracking on the latest targets?” is here: www.climate-resource.com/reports/ndcs... #ClimateAction #COP30 #ClimateFinance
climate-resource.com
We’ve also created NDC Snapshots: quick assessments of recent #NDCs. Explore them here: 🌍 www.climate-resource.com/tools/ndcs?v... We’re here to share how science meets action and we’re excited to connect, collaborate, and exchange ideas. #ClimateScience #GHG #ClimateRisk @ipcc.bsky.social
NDCs - Climate Resource
Nationally determined contributions - Climate Resource
climate-resource.com
We're sharing some recent work contributing to CMIP7. We delivered updated historical GHG concentrations and are now helping finalise future climate scenario concentrations. Read our publication in Geoscientific Model Development with our work for CMIP7 @egu.eu 👉 gmd.copernicus.org/articles/18/...
An evolving Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 7 (CMIP7) and Fast Track in support of future climate assessment
Abstract. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) coordinates community-based efforts to answer key and timely climate science questions, facilitate delivery of relevant multi-model simulatio...
gmd.copernicus.org
Simon Holmes à Court pays $15,000 to put climate scientist on ‘mystery flight’ with Sussan Ley
Simon Holmes à Court pays $15,000 to put climate scientist on ‘mystery flight’ with Sussan Ley
Climate 200 founder beats out at least six other bidders for meeting with opposition leader in charity auction for Parliament’s Midwinter Ball * Get our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcast Climate 200 founder Simon Holmes à Court has paid $15,000 to secure a mystery flight with Sussan Ley – and put a climate scientist and a young climate organiser on the plane – winning a charity auction at Parliament’s Midwinter Ball. The flight, and lunch with the opposition leader at a country pub, was offered in the auction organised by the Canberra press gallery for the annual event. Continue reading...
theguardian.com
A must read, devastating, Report by Francesca Albanese (UN Rapporteur on human rights in the Palestinian territories occupied since 1967) on the global economic foundations of the Palestinians' genocide: THE ECONOMY OF GENOCIDE. Please share! www.ohchr.org/en/documents...
A/HRC/59/23: From economy of occupation to economy of genocide - Report of the Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in the Palestinian territories occupied since 1967 (Advance edited ve...
This report investigates the corporate machinery sustaining Israel’s settler-colonial project of displacement and replacement of the Palestinians in the occupied territory. While political leaders and...
ohchr.org
"Before mass leaders seize the power to fit reality to their lies, their propaganda is marked by its extreme contempt for facts as such, for in their opinion fact depends entirely on the power of man who can fabricate it" - Hannah Arendt, the origin of totalitarism
This bluesky space becomes enjoyable. Just posted my probably last ever 'X'... An entry into the competition for best Tesla bumper stickers, now that he is full throttle for fossil fuels and everything else Trump stands for. LET HIM GO TO MARS.
After net zero CO2 emissions do you want to halt or continue global warming? If you want to halt global warming, the point of getting to net zero emissions, then we better define it correctly! The key is how “removals” are defined & the role humans play. doi.org/10.1038/s415... 1/
A new paper led by Sebastian Sippel just appeared in Nature arguing that ocean temperature measurements in the early 20th century have a cold bias. It's a fun story illustrating the process of scientific discovery, so let me talk about it a bit. 🧵 www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Early-twentieth-century cold bias in ocean surface temperature observations - Nature
Independent statistical reconstructions of the global mean surface temperature from either ocean or land data show that existing estimates of early-twentieth-century ocean surface temperatures are too...
nature.com
Understanding the consequences of potential overshoot above the 1.5°C warming level has been the focus of the PROVIDE project and the work by a great group of interdisciplinary authors has just been published in @natureportfolio.bsky.social www.nature.com/articles/s41... Here’s what we found: 1/
Overconfidence in climate overshoot - Nature
Aiming for declining global temperatures can limit long-term climate risks compared with a mere stabilization of global warming, including sea-level rise and cryosphere changes.
nature.com
Wow, didn't realise Germany's coal power output was down by two-thirds in a decade It's currently on track for a virtual phaseout by 2030!
Explain it to me like I am a fifth grader... That was the goal in this article with @meinshausen.bsky.social: "We Are Not on Track: Greenhouse Gas Emissions Are Higher Than Ever!" Did we succeed? kids.frontiersin.org/articles/10....
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). They are just one element of a bigger puzzle. Should scenarios start at concentration, or emissions, or socioeconomics? Should they start at temperature and go backwards? All have advantages... gmd.copernicus.org/articles/17/... 1/
All this, and more, is discussed in a new review & perspective piece in Geoscientific Model Development (GMD), led by @meinshausen.bsky.social Please read and continue the discussion: geoscientific-model-development.net 4/4
The effective amount of Petroleum Resource Rent Tax collected by the Australian government as a share of oil & gas revenues has collapsed, as we point out in our submission to the Treasury. #Auspol #Auspol2024 climateanalytics.org/publications...
Coal is the first one to exit, if we want to put ourselves on track to meet the long-term Paris agreement goals. By 2030 or 2035 at the latest. Other fossil fuels to follow swift. Let's hope that COP28 will have clear wording in the end. Full briefing here: www.climate-resource.com/tools/ndcs
The latest temperature assessments of the NDCs and LT-LEDS pledges by countries - and how they fair against the Paris Agreement temperature goals? Surprise: We are still quite far off 1.5C. Here an overview of all the main studies. See more at: climate-resource.com/tools/ndcs
Entering the 1.5C world, it's time for a fossil fuel exit. Phase-in of renewables is key, but only replaces fossil fuel (emissions), if married with strong energy efficiency and dedicated coal, oil and gas phase-out policies. Full briefing: climate-resource.com/tools/ndcs
1/ Halbzeit für die Ampel! Also, falls sie bis zum Ende durchhält. Wie steht es nach zwei Jahren 🚦 um die Energiewende? @aroth.bsky.social, @adelinegueret.bsky.social, @fsschmidt.bsky.social & ich haben aus diesem Anlass ein kleines Special zum Ampel-Monitor Energiewende des @diw.de veröffentlicht.
'Great success' of small modular reactors: Magnox produces weapons grade plutonium in North Korea. Other plans burn through cash. Relaxing that one doesn't have to argue any more on grounds of risks, waste, nuclear proliferation, etc. Economis sort it out. reneweconomy.com.au/small-modula...
Small modular nuclear reactors: a history of failure
Dozens of ‘small modular reactor’ designs are being promoted, but precious few will reach construction stage and likelihood of SMRs being built in large numbers is negligible.
reneweconomy.com.au
“The situation is nothing short of horrific – where is humanity? Millions of civilians are being collectively punished in full view of the world, there can be no justification for using starvation as a weapon of war" www.theguardian.com/world/live/2...
Israel-Hamas war live: Israel vows to ‘teach the UN a lesson’ as row over secretary general’s ...
Israel calls on António Guterres to resign after his speech and says it has denied a visa to a UN official
theguardian.com
How can people, who suffered so much, create so much suffering?
