Mike Byrne

@drmichaelbyrne.bsky.social

climate scientist | extreme temperatures, atmospheric dynamics, water cycle | Reader @ U. St Andrews, PhD from MIT | he/him | 🇮🇪 in 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 https://sites.google.com/view/climate-dynamics-lab

Another "need to extend the y-axis" moment... Average temperature in Central England for Jan-Sep for each year since 1772. It is 0.8°C higher in 2026 than any other previous year.

Timeseries of average Jan-Sep temperature for Central England with huge jump up in 2026

"Pricing El Niño is not the same as preventing its loss of life. Yet, many of those acting on its forecasts are using them to move money, not people, out of harm’s way." My editorial for Science on why hedging El Niño is not the same as adapting to it: www.science.org/eprint/DU6FR...

Hedging El Niño isn’t the same as adapting to it

Record-setting warm waters slosh eastward across the tropical Pacific, forming El Niño. This recurrent climate pattern reconfigures severe weather worldwide, and with it, the global economy. Scientist...

science.org

🧵CO₂ removal (CDR) is back in the news, but just because the UNEP report says we need CDR, it doesn't mean we'll have CDR. Many challenges will take decades of research and negotiation to solve. Here are some examples: Technological: We currently don't have any durable CDR method that scales.

Projection has become reality 22 years ago, Christoph Schär et al. published a landmark paper in Nature explaining that the 2003 heatwave was a harbinger of things to come. The study featured an iconic figure - shown in countless lectures - illustrating how outlandish the event was at the time

Bild

With the looming El Nino, what does this mean for UK weather? Likely wet? The major El Nino events of the last 50 years have all been coincident with a wet UK in late autumn into winter. The wetter winter part did not occur during the 1877-78 El Nino, which we think was the largest event on record.

Rainfall in the UK during autumn and winter in past El Nino events

With record-breaking heatwaves, France just had both its warmest June and July on record. Systematic collection of weather data basically began in Western Europe, giving Europe the longest thermometer-based histories in the world. After more than 250 years, we have changed the climate. 🧪

Time series graph of June-July average temperature in France relative to the 1850-1900 baseline.  Data from Berkeley Earth.

Warming temperatures + decreasing relative humidity = more water being sucked from soil / reservoirs = DROUGHT. Simple physics. Europe + UK are on the frontline because they are warming so rapidly – it will get worse until 'net zero' is reached. That's my TED talk 🌍 www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cw...

UK weather: More than two-thirds of England now in drought with conditions set to worsen

The National Drought Agency adds the East Midlands, Kent, East Sussex, and other parts of England to the areas officially in drought conditions.

bbc.co.uk

Scientists warned you about: ♨️ more/longer/hotter heatwaves (hot planet=hot weather) 🌀 stronger storms (warm water=hurricane food) 🌧️ downpours (warm air holds more water vapor) 🌵 droughts (warm air is thirstier) 🔥 fire weather (hotter, drier) 🌊 sea level rise (land ice melts, warm water expands)