The Anthropic & OpenAI IPOs could mint thousands of new millionaires, & a lot of them plan to give. But how much will actually reach the philanthropic ecosystem? We used Radiant to arrive at a forecast of: $100B+ in pledges, but only ~$26B of it to reach charities by 2031. More below.

Mapping the AI IPO Windfall

Forecasters expect the money to reach charities much slower than the headlines suggest. Here's the map behind the number, and how you can build your own on Radiant, Metaculus’ visual mapping tool.

metaculus.substack.com

For the first time, an AI forecaster has won the seasonal Metaculus Cup. The Economist has covered the story; link in replies. Congratulations to Jeffrey Liang for building laertes, the winner in question. And congratulations to the top-performing human forecaster, @benshindel.bsky.social!

Artificial intelligence now beats some of the best human forecasters

Crystal balls give way to LLMs

economist.com

Announcing: the Metaculus Cup Fall 2026 with guest forecaster @kikollan.llaneras.es, data journalist at @elpais.com! Go head-to-head to compete for up to $7,500 in prizes. The first batch of questions includes: Start forecasting: www.metaculus.com/tournament/m... Questions include...

AI is replacing the job of getting yelled at by a landlord. x.com/dollarnuftyn...

Metaculus Pro forecasters vs. AI bot teams, head-to-head in seasonal FutureEval Bot Tournaments: Q3 2024: -11.3 Q4 2024: -8.9 Q1 2025: -17.7 Q2 2025: -20.0 Spring 2026: -1.25 Humans still won, but the gap is nearly gone. Full analysis from AI Research Engineer Ben Wilson:

Spring 2026 FutureEval Analysis

Main Takeaways

metaculus.com

Games without files are the next big thing. Play anywhere, anytime, without any equipment or gameplay getting in the way of the fun.

Sos "Buy Lazy Kickers" Sosowski@sosowski.bsky.social · 2mo ago

If you ever feel bad about botching your indie game release, remember that you'll never be as bad as Ubisoft. They literally forgot to upload the actual game.

When will California's High-Speed Rail be open for service between San Francisco and Anaheim? The current forecast is February 2049 -- though admittedly this relies on renaming Oakland to Anaheim. www.metaculus.com/questions/11...

High-Speed Rail from Anaheim to SF

Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance.

metaculus.com

The Labor Automation Tournament Comment Prize closes Sept. 1! - $5k prize pool distributed among best 8 comments - Can rank by posting many strong comments or smaller number of exceptional comments - Arguments are evaluated on strength of reasoning vs. being right - Pro Forecasters aren't eligible

Labor Automation Tournament

Forecasting the future of the US workforce as AI advances

metaculus.com

New question: How many confirmed cases will the Salmonella outbreak reach in the UK? Forecast here:

How many confirmed cases will the Salmonella outbreak reach in the UK?

Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance.

metaculus.com

A recent episode of Hard Fork (@nytimes.com) takes on the much-debated subject of AI forecasting: "I think it’s actually quite interesting and profound that we now have, in some cases, AI systems that are better than humans at making predictions about the future." — @kevinroose.com (1/2)

One way that forecasts provide value beyond when they resolve is the discussion that emerges around how they resolve. In a recent thread on the platform, we see a great example of this kind of discussion, sparked by a comment left by user A6N23 regarding the question (1/2)

The Labor Automation Tournament Comment Prize deadline is September 1. Carries pool of $5k, distributed among the best 8 comments. Clear reasoning is what counts for the comment prize -- not whether the forecast is correct. Commenters are ranked on both quality & quantity of their contributions.

Labor Automation Tournament Comment Prize

The Labor Automation Tournament has a Comment Prize pool of $5,000, distributed among the best 8 comments on its forecasting questions. The deadline is September 1.

metaculus.com

On Monsanto v. Durnell, our community called Monsanto the favorite (~70-80%); FantasyScotus's crowd leaned 5-4 the other way. We don't often get to compare our forecasts directly against subject matter experts or other crowd aggregation sites, so it's exciting when the opportunity arises.

If SCOTUS hears Monsanto v. Durnell, will it rule for Monsanto?

Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance.

metaculus.com

1/ When we launched the Labor Automation Forecasting Hub in April, the prevailing assumption was that no government could slow a frontier AI lab once it decided to ship. Then, on June 12...

Labor Automation Forecasting Hub | Metaculus

Real-time forecasts from our global forecasting community on the future of the US workforce as AI advances.

metaculus.com

Starts Friday: the Animal Futures Tournament on Metaculus. Forecast 16 decision-relevant questions on farmed animal welfare, alternative proteins, wild animal welfare, AI, and animal futures. The Unjournal is partnering with Metaculus and Sentient Futures through our Pivotal… http://dlvr.it/TSzF8b

The 2026 US Midterms Tracker is officially live! You’ll find continuously updated forecasts from the Metaculus community on every race that matters: Senate, House, governors -- plus key drivers, electoral consequences, & other factors associated with the elections. 🧵

2026 US Midterm Elections | Metaculus

Real-time forecasts from the Metaculus community on the 2026 US midterm elections.

metaculus.com

Will a case of Bundibugyo Ebola disease be first confirmed in the US before 2027? Current community forecast: 12% chance. See the full forecast and add yours here:

Ebola bundibugyo case first confirmed on US soil before 2027?

Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance.

metaculus.com

"Metaculus actually gave estimates of if Trump or Harris won, what would the consequences be for the nation? Things like immigration, Supreme Court justices, wars. That's advice to voters about who to vote for.” —@robinhanson.bsky.social, WaPo's Reasonably Optimistic Podcast w/ @mcmegan.bsky.social

While headlines about hantavirus have sparked understandable fears of another pandemic, Metaculus forecasters bring a measured, probabilistic perspective to the situation. Our latest update, shared with the CDC as part of our Respiratory Disease Outlook series, examines current forecasts. Quick 🧵

Interesting difference between Metaculus (a forecast aggregator) and Kalshi (a prediction market) regarding hantavirus… Prediction markets seem to struggle with getting low probabilities right probably because lure of a large return lures in gamblers. There may be other reasons as well.

1/ We’re not playing favorites, but the data doesn’t lie; @ufl.edu cleaned up in the Bridgewater x Metaculus Tournament, logging not the highest overall score on the School Leaderboard, and doing so with only 14 forecasters. We found an article explaining how they pulled it off—read on!

Forecast here: www.metaculus.com/tournament/l...

Metaculus@metaculus.com · 7mo ago

How will AI reshape the labor market? We just launched the Labor Automation Tournament to forecast how automation will affect jobs, wages, and the workforce through 2035, with $35,000 in prizes for predictions and analysis. More info below!

The winners from our first forecasting tournament! You can make predictions now for the U.S. Democracy Threat Index on @metaculus.bsky.social, which has a $10,000 prize pool www.metaculus.com/index/us-dem...

Metaculus@metaculus.com · 7mo ago

1/ The Bright Line Watch Tournament has concluded! It included a mix of existing Metaculus questions & ones created by BLW, a nonpartisan watchdog group that has monitored the status of American democracy since 2017 (👀 @brendannyhan.bsky.social) Congratulations to all the medalists & prize winners!

How will AI reshape the labor market? We just launched the Labor Automation Tournament to forecast how automation will affect jobs, wages, and the workforce through 2035, with $35,000 in prizes for predictions and analysis. More info below!

1/ The Bright Line Watch Tournament has concluded! It included a mix of existing Metaculus questions & ones created by BLW, a nonpartisan watchdog group that has monitored the status of American democracy since 2017 (👀 @brendannyhan.bsky.social) Congratulations to all the medalists & prize winners!

Charlie Fink's latest piece in @forbes.com features FutureEval, our benchmark testing how accurately AI can predict real-world events. forbes.com/sites/charli... (paywalled)

AI Turns Polls And Prediction Markets Into A New Battleground

Prediction markets and AI forecasting collide as platforms like Metaculus and ForeNex challenge gambling-driven models with data, transparency and human-machine intelligence.

forbes.com

There are 2 vaccines on the horizon for tuberculosis, the M72 & MTBVAC. In our “Frontiers in Disease Prevention” series with Coefficient Giving, we’re hosting forecasts about when they will be approved & what the uptake will look like. #worldtbday

We love to see it: check out the heatmap for our newly launched FutureEval page. The red hot section? Our methodology tab. We love that our community cares so much about the how’s and why’s. It’s this energy that makes the forecasts as strong as they are.

Q for scientists & researchers: what percentage of the most consequential research in your field is actually getting funded? Are funders identifying the areas where their support might do the most good? (Quick 🧵)

ANNOUNCING: Frontiers in Disease Prevention, a new Coefficient Giving x Metaculus initiative exploring how forecasting can help identify and prioritize the most impactful ways to prevent disease. It features questions on tuberculosis vaccines, GeneDrive tech, & micro needle patch vaccines. Link ↓