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The 2026 US Midterms Tracker is officially live! You’ll find continuously updated forecasts from the Metaculus community on every race that matters: Senate, House, governors -- plus key drivers, electoral consequences, & other factors associated with the elections. 🧵

2026 US Midterm Elections | Metaculus

Real-time forecasts from the Metaculus community on the 2026 US midterm elections.

metaculus.com

Will a case of Bundibugyo Ebola disease be first confirmed in the US before 2027? Current community forecast: 12% chance. See the full forecast and add yours here:

Ebola bundibugyo case first confirmed on US soil before 2027?

Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance.

metaculus.com

"Metaculus actually gave estimates of if Trump or Harris won, what would the consequences be for the nation? Things like immigration, Supreme Court justices, wars. That's advice to voters about who to vote for.” —@robinhanson.bsky.social, WaPo's Reasonably Optimistic Podcast w/ @mcmegan.bsky.social

Dan Elton @delton.bsky.social · 4mo ago

While headlines about hantavirus have sparked understandable fears of another pandemic, Metaculus forecasters bring a measured, probabilistic perspective to the situation. Our latest update, shared with the CDC as part of our Respiratory Disease Outlook series, examines current forecasts. Quick 🧵

Interesting difference between Metaculus (a forecast aggregator) and Kalshi (a prediction market) regarding hantavirus… Prediction markets seem to struggle with getting low probabilities right probably because lure of a large return lures in gamblers. There may be other reasons as well.

Metaculus @metaculus.com · 4mo ago

1/ We’re not playing favorites, but the data doesn’t lie; @ufl.edu cleaned up in the Bridgewater x Metaculus Tournament, logging not the highest overall score on the School Leaderboard, and doing so with only 14 forecasters. We found an article explaining how they pulled it off—read on!

Metaculus@metaculus.com · 5mo ago

Forecast here: www.metaculus.com/tournament/l...

How will AI reshape the labor market? We just launched the Labor Automation Tournament to forecast how automation will affect jobs, wages, and the workforce through 2035, with $35,000 in prizes for predictions and analysis. More info below!

Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 5mo ago

The winners from our first forecasting tournament! You can make predictions now for the U.S. Democracy Threat Index on @metaculus.bsky.social, which has a $10,000 prize pool www.metaculus.com/index/us-dem...

Metaculus@metaculus.com · 5mo ago

1/ The Bright Line Watch Tournament has concluded! It included a mix of existing Metaculus questions & ones created by BLW, a nonpartisan watchdog group that has monitored the status of American democracy since 2017 (👀 @brendannyhan.bsky.social) Congratulations to all the medalists & prize winners!

Charlie Fink's latest piece in @forbes.com features FutureEval, our benchmark testing how accurately AI can predict real-world events. forbes.com/sites/charli... (paywalled)

AI Turns Polls And Prediction Markets Into A New Battleground

Prediction markets and AI forecasting collide as platforms like Metaculus and ForeNex challenge gambling-driven models with data, transparency and human-machine intelligence.

forbes.com

There are 2 vaccines on the horizon for tuberculosis, the M72 & MTBVAC. In our “Frontiers in Disease Prevention” series with Coefficient Giving, we’re hosting forecasts about when they will be approved & what the uptake will look like. #worldtbday

We love to see it: check out the heatmap for our newly launched FutureEval page. The red hot section? Our methodology tab. We love that our community cares so much about the how’s and why’s. It’s this energy that makes the forecasts as strong as they are.

Q for scientists & researchers: what percentage of the most consequential research in your field is actually getting funded? Are funders identifying the areas where their support might do the most good? (Quick 🧵)

ANNOUNCING: Frontiers in Disease Prevention, a new Coefficient Giving x Metaculus initiative exploring how forecasting can help identify and prioritize the most impactful ways to prevent disease. It features questions on tuberculosis vaccines, GeneDrive tech, & micro needle patch vaccines. Link ↓

Whatever you think about the particulars of this story, it demonstrates how prediction markets create perverse incentives far beyond what you initially expect. It’s not hard to imagine the types of pressuring journalists will experience as more people recklessly gamble on real-world events.

Gamblers trying to win a bet on Polymarket are vowing to kill me if I don’t rewrite an Iran missile story

Bettors are using death threats to try to get The Times of Israel's military correspondent to change his report on a missile impact in central Israel. This is his alarming account

timesofisrael.com

Metaculus v Polymarket predicting the Iran attack -- @kikollan.llaneras.es in @elpais.com: elpais.com/actualidad/n...

Alejandra Caraballo@esqueer.net · 6mo ago

Polymarket pulled nuclear detonation markets after public backlash. There's a right way to forecast existential risks and a wrong way. The right way: aggregate judgment for reliable foresight. The wrong way: let anonymous wallets profit from mass death--or worse, corrupt the decisions themselves.

Polymarket has created a betting market on the use of nuclear weapons. Everyone involved in this should be put in prison for life.

A screenshot of the Polymarket website showing a prediction market titled "Nuclear weapon detonation by...?" under the Geopolitics and Ukraine categories. The market displays three betting options with their current probabilities and "Buy Yes" or "Buy No" prices: "March 31" at 5%, "June 30" at 12%, and "Before 2027" at 22%. The total trading volume shown is over $843,000.

Should we be gambling on war? For so many reasons, no.

Should we be gambling on war? For so many reasons, no.