One way that forecasts provide value beyond when they resolve is the discussion that emerges around how they resolve. In a recent thread on the platform, we see a great example of this kind of discussion, sparked by a comment left by user A6N23 regarding the question (1/2)

The Labor Automation Tournament Comment Prize deadline is September 1. Carries pool of $5k, distributed among the best 8 comments. Clear reasoning is what counts for the comment prize -- not whether the forecast is correct. Commenters are ranked on both quality & quantity of their contributions.

Labor Automation Tournament Comment Prize

The Labor Automation Tournament has a Comment Prize pool of $5,000, distributed among the best 8 comments on its forecasting questions. The deadline is September 1.

metaculus.com

On Monsanto v. Durnell, our community called Monsanto the favorite (~70-80%); FantasyScotus's crowd leaned 5-4 the other way. We don't often get to compare our forecasts directly against subject matter experts or other crowd aggregation sites, so it's exciting when the opportunity arises.

If SCOTUS hears Monsanto v. Durnell, will it rule for Monsanto?

Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance.

metaculus.com

1/ When we launched the Labor Automation Forecasting Hub in April, the prevailing assumption was that no government could slow a frontier AI lab once it decided to ship. Then, on June 12...

Labor Automation Forecasting Hub | Metaculus

Real-time forecasts from our global forecasting community on the future of the US workforce as AI advances.

metaculus.com

Starts Friday: the Animal Futures Tournament on Metaculus. Forecast 16 decision-relevant questions on farmed animal welfare, alternative proteins, wild animal welfare, AI, and animal futures. The Unjournal is partnering with Metaculus and Sentient Futures through our Pivotal… http://dlvr.it/TSzF8b

The 2026 US Midterms Tracker is officially live! You’ll find continuously updated forecasts from the Metaculus community on every race that matters: Senate, House, governors -- plus key drivers, electoral consequences, & other factors associated with the elections. 🧵

2026 US Midterm Elections | Metaculus

Real-time forecasts from the Metaculus community on the 2026 US midterm elections.

metaculus.com

Will a case of Bundibugyo Ebola disease be first confirmed in the US before 2027? Current community forecast: 12% chance. See the full forecast and add yours here:

Ebola bundibugyo case first confirmed on US soil before 2027?

Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance.

metaculus.com

"Metaculus actually gave estimates of if Trump or Harris won, what would the consequences be for the nation? Things like immigration, Supreme Court justices, wars. That's advice to voters about who to vote for.” —@robinhanson.bsky.social, WaPo's Reasonably Optimistic Podcast w/ @mcmegan.bsky.social

While headlines about hantavirus have sparked understandable fears of another pandemic, Metaculus forecasters bring a measured, probabilistic perspective to the situation. Our latest update, shared with the CDC as part of our Respiratory Disease Outlook series, examines current forecasts. Quick 🧵

Interesting difference between Metaculus (a forecast aggregator) and Kalshi (a prediction market) regarding hantavirus… Prediction markets seem to struggle with getting low probabilities right probably because lure of a large return lures in gamblers. There may be other reasons as well.

1/ We’re not playing favorites, but the data doesn’t lie; @ufl.edu cleaned up in the Bridgewater x Metaculus Tournament, logging not the highest overall score on the School Leaderboard, and doing so with only 14 forecasters. We found an article explaining how they pulled it off—read on!

Forecast here: www.metaculus.com/tournament/l...

Metaculus@metaculus.com · 4mo ago

How will AI reshape the labor market? We just launched the Labor Automation Tournament to forecast how automation will affect jobs, wages, and the workforce through 2035, with $35,000 in prizes for predictions and analysis. More info below!

The winners from our first forecasting tournament! You can make predictions now for the U.S. Democracy Threat Index on @metaculus.bsky.social, which has a $10,000 prize pool www.metaculus.com/index/us-dem...

Metaculus@metaculus.com · 4mo ago

1/ The Bright Line Watch Tournament has concluded! It included a mix of existing Metaculus questions & ones created by BLW, a nonpartisan watchdog group that has monitored the status of American democracy since 2017 (👀 @brendannyhan.bsky.social) Congratulations to all the medalists & prize winners!

How will AI reshape the labor market? We just launched the Labor Automation Tournament to forecast how automation will affect jobs, wages, and the workforce through 2035, with $35,000 in prizes for predictions and analysis. More info below!

1/ The Bright Line Watch Tournament has concluded! It included a mix of existing Metaculus questions & ones created by BLW, a nonpartisan watchdog group that has monitored the status of American democracy since 2017 (👀 @brendannyhan.bsky.social) Congratulations to all the medalists & prize winners!

Charlie Fink's latest piece in @forbes.com features FutureEval, our benchmark testing how accurately AI can predict real-world events. forbes.com/sites/charli... (paywalled)

AI Turns Polls And Prediction Markets Into A New Battleground

Prediction markets and AI forecasting collide as platforms like Metaculus and ForeNex challenge gambling-driven models with data, transparency and human-machine intelligence.

forbes.com

There are 2 vaccines on the horizon for tuberculosis, the M72 & MTBVAC. In our “Frontiers in Disease Prevention” series with Coefficient Giving, we’re hosting forecasts about when they will be approved & what the uptake will look like. #worldtbday

We love to see it: check out the heatmap for our newly launched FutureEval page. The red hot section? Our methodology tab. We love that our community cares so much about the how’s and why’s. It’s this energy that makes the forecasts as strong as they are.

Q for scientists & researchers: what percentage of the most consequential research in your field is actually getting funded? Are funders identifying the areas where their support might do the most good? (Quick 🧵)

ANNOUNCING: Frontiers in Disease Prevention, a new Coefficient Giving x Metaculus initiative exploring how forecasting can help identify and prioritize the most impactful ways to prevent disease. It features questions on tuberculosis vaccines, GeneDrive tech, & micro needle patch vaccines. Link ↓

Whatever you think about the particulars of this story, it demonstrates how prediction markets create perverse incentives far beyond what you initially expect. It’s not hard to imagine the types of pressuring journalists will experience as more people recklessly gamble on real-world events.

Gamblers trying to win a bet on Polymarket are vowing to kill me if I don’t rewrite an Iran missile story

Bettors are using death threats to try to get The Times of Israel's military correspondent to change his report on a missile impact in central Israel. This is his alarming account

timesofisrael.com

Metaculus v Polymarket predicting the Iran attack -- @kikollan.llaneras.es in @elpais.com: elpais.com/actualidad/n...

Polymarket pulled nuclear detonation markets after public backlash. There's a right way to forecast existential risks and a wrong way. The right way: aggregate judgment for reliable foresight. The wrong way: let anonymous wallets profit from mass death--or worse, corrupt the decisions themselves.

Alejandra Caraballo@esqueer.net · 5mo ago

Polymarket has created a betting market on the use of nuclear weapons. Everyone involved in this should be put in prison for life.

Should we be gambling on war? For so many reasons, no.

Should we be gambling on war? For so many reasons, no.

AI forecasting is in the spotlight. We just released FutureEval, a benchmark to measure forecasting capabilities of the various bots participating on our platform. Some info might surprise you. Read more here: www.metaculus.com/futureeval/

FutureEval | Metaculus

Metaculus FutureEval measures AI's ability to predict future outcomes. Compare AI models against human pro forecasters on real-world forecasting questions.

metaculus.com

praying mantis@gentlem.bsky.social · 6mo ago

www.theatlantic.com/technology/2... @metaculus.bsky.social #AI-predictive-models #AGI #forecasting #laws-of-probability-theorem

In April, a federal judge found probable cause the Trump admin willfully defied a court order on deportation flights. The contempt probe intensified this week. We've added a $10,000 prize pool to our US Democracy Threat Index. Scenarios like this are exactly what it tracks. 1/4

How might the world look after the development of AGI, and what should we do about it now? Help us think about this at our workshop on Post-AGI Economics, Culture and Governance! We’ll host speakers from political theory, economics, mechanism design, history, and hierarchical agency. post-agi.org

U.S. DEMOCRACY THREAT INDEX -- on Metaculus (www.metaculus.com/index/us-dem...) "This index was created by the nonpartisan group Bright Line Watch (BLW), which monitors the state of American democracy. The index consists of 39 questions based on the democratic principles BLW monitors."

U.S. Democracy Threat Index

Political scientists warn that US democracy is under threat. Do forecasters expect US democracy to erode?

metaculus.com