Ryan Larson
@ryanplarson.bsky.social
sociologist/criminologist AP @HamlineU. PhD @UMNsociology. Crime, punishment, inequality, quant.
Great to participate in yesterday's "Documenting the Impact of US DHS Activity in MN" event convened by @aaronsojourner.org, @aaronrosenthal.bsky.social, @spelika.bsky.social & co Got to share results from @lumaris.com's statewide survey of Minnesotans: www.lumaris.com/blog/2026/07...
State‘s working on Operation Metro Surge report. Draft due by October; final report in December. Today is all-day panels, breakout sessions. Superintendent of Fridley Public Schools says 2/3rds of students stopped coming to class so they went full virtual. Over 100 students remained unaccounted for
Tight match pre-Surge Estimates suggest surge caused crime to rise (p=0.063)
UMN Criminologist & Soc Prof @chrisuggen.bsky.social : did crime drop, rise, or stay the same? For research, critical to ask compared to what... What would have happened otherwise? In the midst of national down trend, seasonal effects... What could drive effects? Deterrence, incapacitation...
Highlights the importance of independent data gathering in an era, especially when feds not releasing data on operations.
Not more in neighborhoods with more foreign born or more non-citizens. Instead, more where more Hispanics and people of color.
Follow here for a live thread on new research and advocacy related to Operation Metro Surge in MN.
Aaron Sojourner@aaronsojourner.org · 3w agoRegistration is open, free, limited, & required. Great set of research presentations lined up on education, health, economy, mutual aid & more. Learn about the frontier evidence and connect with those working to generate it. docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...
Sociology Asst Prof @ryanplarson.bsky.social lays out predictions of where & when DHS activity would concentrate under different theories of what's driving it. Takes it to the data.
Program's up! 30+ teams share evidence abt impacts on health, educ, & econ + community response. Great folks @ziibiing.com @ottergoose.net @aaronrosenthal.bsky.social @chrisuggen.bsky.social @casemcnich.bsky.social @ngraetz.bsky.social @craigstetter.bsky.social docs.google.com/document/u/1...
New in Criminology! Punishment as a racialized package of confinement, cash, and surveillance. By @ryanplarson.bsky.social , @robertstewart.io , @veronicalhorowitz.bsky.social, and some old guy. This detailed thread by Ryan show ‘n tells the story.
Ryan Larson@ryanplarson.bsky.social · 5mo agoNew paper out in Criminology w/ @robertstewart.io, @veronicalhorowitz.bsky.social, & @chrisuggen.bsky.social We model punishment more closely as it is experienced by defendants - a constitutive package of incarceration, probation, and monetary sanctions. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
New paper out in Criminology w/ @robertstewart.io, @veronicalhorowitz.bsky.social, & @chrisuggen.bsky.social We model punishment more closely as it is experienced by defendants - a constitutive package of incarceration, probation, and monetary sanctions. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
The racialized packaging of punishment: An instrumental variables approach to incarceration, probation, and monetary sanctions
Research on racial disparities in the criminal legal system generally examines isolated sentencing decisions, rather than the “package” of punishment that defendants experience. Using Minnesota court....
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
When officers' identities are hidden, they commit more crime and so do others. #EconSky thomas-simon.org/publications...
NEW (and open access!) in @pnas.org: We find that Secure Communities triggered “preemptive” immigration enforcement, increasing detentions, transfers, & removals even before formal county activation. Joint with @cvargas100.bsky.social and @immigrationlab.bsky.social www.pnas.org/doi/epdf/10....
New! How homicide changed in Minnesota’s Twin Cities after the police murder of George Floyd. Check out @ryanplarson.bsky.com’s thread (and data viz) and/or our team’s new article in J of Quant Crim.
Ryan Larson@ryanplarson.bsky.social · 7mo agoFresh in JQC w/@jillkpeterson.bsky.social , @chrisuggen.bsky.social, and others! We use an ITS design to examine the changes in the Twin Cities in relation to the pandemic and the police murder of George Floyd. Finding summaries below! Link here: link.springer.com/article/10.1... 1/n
Fresh in JQC w/@jillkpeterson.bsky.social , @chrisuggen.bsky.social, and others! We use an ITS design to examine the changes in the Twin Cities in relation to the pandemic and the police murder of George Floyd. Finding summaries below! Link here: link.springer.com/article/10.1... 1/n
Many workers have missed shifts without jobs being destroyed making it challenging to measure labor impacts with conventional sources. We use real-time daily data from Homebase to measure impacts. Thanks to UChicago and Homebase for making the data available. #EconSky #NumbersDay
Aaron Rosenthal@aaronrosenthal.bsky.social · 7mo agoNew research with @aaronsojourner.org of the @upjohninstitute.bsky.social posted on @northstarpolicy.org's blog. We find that Operation Metro Surge caused declines in employees working, hours worked, and businesses open, leading to an estimated $106 million wage loss for Twin Cities workers.
We're mourning yet again in Minnesota — and struggling to square the gut-churning video of Alex Pretti's final moments with official accounts. I'm teaching techniques of neutralization this term, so I made this quick slide on the DHS statement. Share if it's useful. www.nytimes.com/live/2026/us...
Man, Du Bois had some bangers, but for me, it doesn't get much better than his scathing indictment of the "Christianity" of the United States. Certainly this was all true of the nation in his lifetime. But in my lifetime, his criticisms have never felt so true of the nation right now.
There are many signs of the fear and distress people are feeling in my home town of Minneapolis. One signal of elevated strain is the rise in 911 calls for help — up about 9% daily in the new year relative to previous daily averages across 2020-2024.
