TiminMN

@timwegenermn.bsky.social

My grandfather killed Nazis "Everything that is done in the world is done by hope" - Martin Luther Mainly Democratic politics and fighting the fascist president WI born, MN transplant. Vote Blue. Speaking only for myself.

🚨🚨🚨Trump just made another comment about how his “two big monsters” will make history next week. “So, I wonder if I should say this. I’d like a little advice from my two people, my two big monsters. My two monsters are going to be the biggest stars in the country in a week.”

New: Low-info voters, who put Trump in the White House, now look even more anti-Trump than high-info voters, and give Dems bigger margins on the generic ballot. 1 out of 3 Trump voters who can't name the party in charge of Congress now back Dems for 2026. www.gelliottmorris.com/p/poll-low-i...

Poll: Low-information voters have turned hardest against Trump and the GOP

Trump voters who can't answer two basic questions about politics are three times as likely as other Trump voters to back Democrats for the House. This is a big change since 2024.

gelliottmorris.com

Two initial takeaways from updated TargetEarly early vote data: - Overall vote is now running meaningful ahead of 2022 - Young people, Blacks, and Hispanics are turning out in much larger numbers than at this point in 2022 Dems may be getting the turnout and electorate we wanted this year.....

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Trump held a rally in Gaston County, NC a few weeks ago. And now, that county has the largest increase in Black vote share of the early vote in the country. Not saying the two are connected, but I have to admit it made me laugh.

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One of the big trends in the early vote is that we are seeing a surge of Hispanic voters voting early. The following chart shows how much bigger the Hispanic share of the early vote is nationally and in selected states compared to this day in 2022. All data via TargetEarly.

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Does it make sense to deport a man who overstayed a visa but otherwise has no criminal record when his deportation means shutting down a food pantry that serves meals to 7,000-8,000 needy people a month? Does choosing not to exercise discretion in his case make America greater?

Aleksander Nijal is the founder and president of the Open Hand Association Food Pantry on Lydig Avenue in the Bronx. He was detained by ICE on Monday when he attended a court hearing.
"It was the saddest thing ever. What he did for this community for the past 14 years. He made sure that people in need had food on their tables for their families. Every day, every afternoon, regardless of what time it was,'
" said Saimir
Burgaj, Chairman of the Open Hand pantry.
The pantry serves anywhere between 7,000 and 8,000 people each month.
Citizen.Coping@propcazhpm.bsky.social · last wk.

"It was the saddest thing ever. What he did for this community for the past 14 years. He made sure that people in need had food on their tables for their families." The pantry serves between 7,000 and 8,000 people each month... They said if he does not return, the pantry will close indefinitely.

Finally, while we can't say how the independent vote will break in any state it is running very Dem in generic ballots tests. What this means is that using D and R as the baseline is likely undercounting the Dem vote. Here is Economist/YouGov this week. Independent vote is 2:1 Dem.

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We are starting to get a decent amount of early vote in across the country, and while it is still very early there are a few states where Dems are performing really well. All data that follows comes from the TargetEarly site, modeled party, Dem and GOP share of the early vote (updated) 1/

It is no accident that this raid comes three weeks before an election where Rep. Omar is on the ballot. This is part of the fascist playbook to rile up his supporters in advance of the midterms.

This is an escalation of a decade-long campaign of attacks. Donald Trump has repeatedly targeted Congresswoman Ilhan Omar with inflammatory rhetoric, contributing to death threats and violence.