Niclas Poitiers

@niclaspoitiers.bsky.social

Research Fellow at Bruegel, working on European Trade and Industrial Policy

❗ LAST CALL FOR APPLICATIONS! Bruegel is looking for: 1️⃣ Research Assistants on all areas of economic research. 2️⃣ a Research Assistant on Energy and Climate. Deadline for applications: Sunday 29th March 2026, 23:59 CET Expected starting date: 01 September 2026 🔗 Apply here: buff.ly/4hEcomK

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❗CALL FOR RESEARCH ASSISTANTS❗ Bruegel is looking for: 1️⃣ Research Assistants on all areas of economic research. 2️⃣ a Research Assistant on Energy and Climate. 📑 Deadline for applications: Sunday 29th March 2026, 23:59 CET 🔗 Interested? Apply here: buff.ly/4hEcomK

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🆕@bruegel.org analysis "Dependence on fossil fuels, not on the United States, is Europe’s worry” US leverage over the EU is far smaller than Russia’s in 2021, but persists indirectly via EU’s fossil-fuel dependence 1/5 www.bruegel.org/analysis/dep... @bmcwilliams.bsky.social @gzachmann.bsky.social

Dependence on fossil fuels, not on the United States, is Europe’s worry

The US has replaced Russia to a great extent as an energy supplier to the European Union, but this has not so far created a new vulnerability

bruegel.org

The inability of Germany to create a decent private pension product for the masses is mind-blowing. In the 2000s, *maybe* we didn't know how, not enough precedents. But now? Literally next door. 🇳🇱🇸🇪

💪 One million Europeans work in clean tech jobs. That is 2 jobs per 1,000 people and twice the level of 2010. But clean tech employment varies across countries - Lithuania leads with 5.4 jobs per 1,000 people. Find out more in our European Clean Tech Tracker (link in the comments).

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Today's Eurobarometer survey is a touch gloomy, but the kids are alright 72% are worried about wars, 69% disinformation, 68% hate speech While 52% are pessimistic about the world's future, 80% of 15-30 yr olds are optimistic about their future, 65% about the EU, 50% the world

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This time, Europe’s leaders played the EU-US trade game well. From the Franco-German tough line to Meloni’s off-ramps, backed by a credible €93bn retaliation threat, they made escalation for Trump costly, and de-escalation easy. Markets and US politics did the rest — Rutte scoring on the assist.

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Sander Tordoir@sandertordoir.bsky.social · 7mo ago

The only way to stop the spiral is to hit the US hard with escalating economic weapons from Europes side. The goal is to raise political costs for Trumps imperial project. Europe can win this game of chicken as there’s real opposition in the US to this Trump hobby.

I think deterrence... worked. Europe's response was actually strong. They sent forces to Denmark, they threatened to retaliate with tariffs, they talked about selling US debt, they made markets nervous and it looked like Trump TACO'd... for now.

You can discuss many aspects of this data, you may find a different measure that leads to a (slightly) different conclusion. But German negativity is extremely excessive. So the next time when you are confronted with typical German pessimism, use these facts to counter the narrative.

A few quick thoughts about this morning's decision. Don't believe the spin from various Russians & others: it's a big deal. The EU has now unambiguously demonstrated that it is able and willing to provide the external financial support Ukraine needs, for as long and as much as it takes. (1/N)

There’s gonna be a lot of hyperbolic talk about EU failing to meet the moment, yada, yada. But a 90 BILLION EU loan is a huge step for the EU and Ukraine! Europe just borrowed for war! EU crossed the joint borrowing rubicon. And they can still do the reparations loan in 2026.

António Costa@eucopresident.consilium.europa.eu · 8mo ago

We have a deal. Decision to provide 90 billion euros of support to Ukraine for 2026-27 approved. We committed, we delivered.

Here's a quick reminder of the composition of the economy of countries that are all too often perceived as agricultural: Italy: 65.6% services, 21.7% industry - 2% agriculture France: 70.4% services, 17.5% industry - 1.4% agriculture Austria: 65.3% services, 23.1% industry - 1.2% agriculture

GDP per capita has doubled in all three Baltic states since 2000— Since 2000, GDP per capita has doubled in all three Baltic states: Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania (where it has nearly tripled).

The Baltic states all doubled their GDP per capita since 2000. Slope chart showing GDP per capita for Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia with data points at 2000 and 2024. In 2000: Estonia $21k, Lithuania $16k, Latvia $15k. In 2024: Lithuania $47k, Estonia $42k, Latvia $39k. Each country’s two points are connected by a line showing roughly a doubling from 2000 to 2024. Data source: Eurostat, OECD, IMF, and World Bank (2025). Note: this data is expressed in international dollars at 2021 prices. License: CC BY to Our World in Data

Is Germany again dragging its feet and undermining a "simple" solution to the Ukraine financing problem, instead pushing the ubercomplex reparations loan? It's a tempting eurocrisis reflex that if only there were a will in Berlin, there would be a better way. But there isn't. Here is why:

One big topic this week: the #Mercosur agreement. It would be absolutely appaling if the #EU again delayed. France should drop its absurd call for yet another delay. We have been debating this agreement for 25 years and yes, there are lot's of safeguards for special interests already.

It has become received wisdom in Brussels and Washington that there is a new “euro-sclerosis”: that the EU economy is lagging the US This view is wrong A little primer on the measurement of productivity – and why reports of the economic death of Europe are greatly exaggerated🧵

Germany's unlikely new China hawk - president of central bank, has found his wings. Nagel says EU should be ready to retaliate against Beijing If retaliation is a last resort, “I would say, okay, we have to be strong and have to take a bold decision"

Bundesbank Head Says EU Must Be Ready to Retaliate Against China

Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said he hopes that Europe can overcome trade difficulties with China, but should be ready to take firm action if necessary.

bloomberg.com

European Council summits are often treated by outside observers as foreign policy-style summits, especially when issues like frozen Russian assets are discussed. But really this is like domestic legislating. There's always haggling. This is how the EU sausage gets made.

High time to get rid of the 'bazooka' framing. The ACI is not a magic weapon. It's a new procedural way of threatening retaliation and then imposing it. The effect really depends on the threats the EU is willing to make. Currently we're mainly deterring ourselves with the military analogies.

Finbarr Bermingham@fbermingham.bsky.social · 10mo ago

At the moment it is seen as the nuclear option, but officials want to get rid of that reputation. It's just one tool in the armoury - I know they don't like the references to "trade bazooka" because it makes member states nervous about using ACI.