Kevin O’Neill
@kevingoneill.github.io
Postdoc @ UCL studying causal judgment, counterfactual thinking, and metacognition https://kevingoneill.github.io
There are 17 different methods to measure whether confidence tracks accuracy, and these do not include Bayesian or Information Theory based measurements. We present MetaSignal with @makwana.bsky.social @lazyneuron.bsky.social and @brianodegaard.bsky.social to have common platform to access them.
Join us for the Philosophy & Neuroscience Palooza at the PSA! 🧠 8:30-10:00am: DSPNW's “Neurophilosophy at 40” featuring Patricia Churchland 🧠10:15-11:45am: SPAN's meet the author session with David Sussillo 🧁 🍇🥯 Light breakfast will be served at each session!
My preprint on theory of mind in large language models is up! I argue that we cannot simply transfer a psychological measure designed to test for ToM in biological organisms to a complex artificial system and assume it measures the same thing. Comments welcome. philpapers.org/rec/VANDGH-2
heading to nyc to give a talk at the Metacognition Science Satellite at #CCN2026 this sunday🗽🤔 catch me in the metacognition in novel task domains session @ 2:30🤗 w/ @meganakpeters.bsky.social
Steve Fleming@smfleming.bsky.social · 4mo ago🚨 Announcing another edition of the Metacognitive Science satellite in NYC, August 2nd 2026 (day before CCN) 🧠 🧪 Abstract submission is now open and closes May 15th! metacognitivescience.org Co-organised with @meganakpeters.bsky.social @luciecharlesneuro.bsky.social @dobyrahnev.bsky.social
priorsense R package has now JOSS paper "priorsense: Efficient prior and likelihood sensitivity checks for Bayesian models in R" you can cite, too doi.org/10.21105/jos... with Noa Kallioinen, Topi Paananen, and @paulbuerkner.com priorsense achieved also a gold badge from @ropensci.org review!
priorsense: Efficient prior and likelihood sensitivity checks for Bayesian models in R
Kallioinen et al., (2026). priorsense: Efficient prior and likelihood sensitivity checks for Bayesian models in R. Journal of Open Source Software, 11(123), 11036, https://doi.org/10.21105/joss.11036
doi.org
I’ll give a flash talk virtually at #CogSci2026 1045-1115 tomorrow(Rio time) on the work “Bounded Adaptive Control by Modeling Linearly and Acting Locally”. We explore how people achieve adaptive multidimensional control given limited computational resources. Feel free to reach out and chat!
well on time for my bi-yearly post I'm sharing the final version of this very cool work we started with @cjungerius.bsky.social @smfleming.bsky.social @svangaal.bsky.social @fahrenfort.bsky.social in 2021, when I was young and full of hope. Now out in @natcomms.nature.com 1/11
The act of detecting a stimulus contaminates measures of conscious experience with decision biases - Nature Communications
A central challenge in consciousness research is determining whether people truly experience a stimulus. Here, the authors show that context biases traditional detection measures, whereas continuous r...
nature.com
You roll a fair die, hoping to get a 6. If you are successful, did you *intentionally* roll a 6? In a new paper, I explain why people hesitate to call lucky outcomes intentional:🧵 direct.mit.edu/opmi/article...
I'm heading to #CogSci2026 @cogscisociety.bsky.social this evening, looking forward to seeing lots of new & familiar faces! 🇧🇷 I'll be presenting this paper: A measure of metacognitive bias you can be confident in 📍: T.18.3 🗓️: July 24th, 2-3:30pm 👥: @tianqizhan.bsky.social @smfleming.bsky.social
Kevin O’Neill@kevingoneill.github.io · 3mo agoIn a new preprint w/ @tianqizhan.bsky.social & @smfleming.bsky.social, we developed a new measure of metacognitive bias (over/under confidence in individual decisions)! doi.org/10.31234/osf...
Multiverse analysis, abdication of responsibility and manufacturing of doubt: I have written on some downsides I see with multiverse analysis (which I like in principle): arxiv.org/abs/2607.14623 I was inspired/provoked to write it by @dingdingpeng.the100.ci (thanks!)
Looking to work with a postdoc. Prior experience with fMRI and computational modeling required, interest in psychiatry desired. Fellowship provides three years salary plus independent travel/equipment funds. Send CV and 2-3 manuscripts (preprints OK).
Now out in Noûs: A communication-first account of explanation, with Jacqueline Harding (jacquelineharding.github.io) and Thomas Icard (stanford.edu/~icard/). Paper: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/... Preprint: arxiv.org/abs/2505.03732
calling all researchers who collect data from humans 🧠🧪 we are running a very brief survey (<1 min) about jsPsych, the software ecosystem for browser-based data collection. if you use jsPsych, or if you collect data with any other software, please fill it out at tinyurl.com/jspsych-census!
Interested in memory updating, exploration, structure learning, & reward? @hannahtarder-stoll.bsky.social & I are looking for candidates to apply for a Connected Minds Postdoctoral Fellowship at York University, with the opportunity to work at Rice too. Contact Hannah or me for details! #PsychJobs
Interested in memory updating, exploration, structure learning, & reward? @asinclair.bsky.social & I are looking for candidates to apply for a Connected Minds Postdoctoral Fellowship at York University, with the opportunity to work at Rice too. Contact Allie or me for details! #PsychJobs
The hippocampus sits at the interface of perception & memory, allowing us to link past, present, & future through its role in generating predictions. Excited to share this theme issue in @royalsociety.org's Philosophical Transactions B, co-edited with @barense.bsky.social & @mariamaly.bsky.social
Volume 381 Issue 1954 | Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B | The Royal Society
Influential themed journal issues across the life sciences.
royalsocietypublishing.org
Why do events run out of #plantBased food and have leftover #meat? Cuz #vegan meals are often more appetizing! I don't blame omnivores who leave the meat and grab the lentils, quinoia, peppers, olives, greens, etc. It's time catering defaulted to vegan: https://qr.ae/pF4hae
Finally out in Psychological Review (psycnet.apa.org/doi/10.1037/...), our update to Signal Detection Theory. We show that contrary to the prevailing Gaussian assumption, evidence distributions in recognition memory are likely minimum extreme Gumbel!
Henrik Singmann@singmann.bsky.social · last yr.Honey, we fixed Signal Detection Theory (SDT)! In this preprint, Constantin Meyer-Grant, David Kellen, Sam Harding, and I critically evaluate the (unequal-variance) Gaussian SDT model in recognition memory and pursue the Gumbel-min model as a principled alternative: doi.org/10.31234/osf... 🧵
Congrats to all LSP speakers & poster presenters at BEYSE 🎉 @mamassian.bsky.social @tarrynbalsdon.bsky.social @lotfiahmad.bsky.social @ljubicajovanovic.bsky.social @eecasey.bsky.social @alelorcavyhmeister.bsky.social @Yves Boubenec @Mathilde Martin @Hugo Tissot
I dunno if this is offensive to say because I seem to upset people when I say this, but humanities people should consider joining us, or at least join us in decoupling from Word and other MS products where we can... and @acollierastro.bsky.social says it more convincingly than I can!
I am giving away a free copy of the #BayesianWorkflow book by @statmodeling.bsky.social, @avehtari.bsky.social, @rmcelreath.bsky.social et al!! Please like, repost, and follow to enter. I will randomly draw the winner next Weds July 8. 😀 routledge.com/9780367490140 #RStats #DataScience #Bayesian
You press ‘send’ on a high-stakes email but hesitate when lifting your finger. You make a chess move but linger on the piece before letting go. Familiar? In @pnas.org, Hanbei Zhou @ruizhegoh.bsky.social @ianbphillips.bsky.social & I show that response *duration* tracks confidence! shorturl.at/A9NVe
As philosophy rushes to claim expertise on AI, AI companies rush to control the philosophical narrative. Unlike other disciplines, philosophy has no standards for reporting conflicts of interest. This petition endeavors to change that: docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...
Open Letter about Industry Funding and Disclosure in Philosophy
*For full list of signatories, updated every few hours, please click here.* In recent years, philosophical writing on areas such as climate change, technology, misinformation, and artificial intellige...
docs.google.com
for undergrads getting their degrees this Fall: if u're computationally savvy & wants to get into cog neuro -- instead of taking up lab manager / RA positions, why not come to Korea & get a master's degree instead? it will be all paid for w/ stipend, of coz. why would u pay for a master's degree??
I am recruiting a postdoctoral researcher and a PhD student, funded by a new ERC grant. The grant focuses on the role of the hippocampus in visual perception, using 7T fMRI (hippocampal subfields, cortical layers) and MEG+iEEG. The intended start dates for both positions are in early 2027. 🧠🟦 1/3
Have you used Bayes factor to test point-null hypotheses in Hierarchical models and wondered: 1. Bridge sampling (BS) or Savage-Dickey density ratio (SDDR)? 2. If SDDR, which density estimation method? 3. How many MCMC samples? 4. What's the cost-benefit trade-off? This may be of interest to you.
Zurich Cognition Lab@cognition-zurich.bsky.social · last mo.How to best estimate Bayes factors for standard hypothesis tests? We compared bridge sampling and the Savage-Dickey density ratio. The latter does a good job in most constellations typical for experiments in cognitive psychology.
New paper "To select or not to select: predictively consistent priors instead of model selection" with Anna Elisabeth Riha, Leevi Lindgren, @davidkohns.bsky.social, @paulbuerkner.com arxiv.org/abs/2606.22850 Model selection is not a substitute for building good models in the first place 1/
