NEW: Electricity prices in the UK are among the highest in the G7. Why is this? And what can the government do about it? Our new IFS Green Budget chapter explains: [THREAD] ⬇️
Max Warner
@maxwarner.bsky.social
Economist at the IFS working on healthcare, public spending and public sector productivity https://ifs.org.uk/people/max-warner
NEW: The English and Welsh justice system is under strain. But more funding alone won't alone fix the system’s problems. Our new Transforming Justice report, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org, examines the resources pressures facing the system: [THREAD]
EVENT: IFS Green Budget 2026 Wed 14 Sept | 9:30-11:15 | In-person & online Join us for insights from this year’s Green Budget, including the UK economic outlook, public finance challenges and options for the Chancellor. Funded by @NuffieldFound and @BarclaysUK. Sign up: ifs.org.uk/events/ifs-g...
We have a new report out today taking a deep dive into how migration and its fiscal impacts feed through the OBR’s public finance forecast. A short thread on why this matters [1/9]
The Institute for Fiscal Studies@theifs.bsky.social · 2w agoNEW: Migration and the public finance forecast In our first IFS Green Budget 2026 chapter, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org and Barclays, we look at the ways migration feeds into the public finances, and how it's accounted for in the OBR public finance forecast.
Migration could be quite important at this year’s budget, as falling migration feeds through into the OBR’s forecast and the government’s “headroom” against its fiscal rules. Given this, a thread on how migration affects the public finances:
The Institute for Fiscal Studies@theifs.bsky.social · 2w agoNEW: Migration and the public finance forecast In our first IFS Green Budget 2026 chapter, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org and Barclays, we look at the ways migration feeds into the public finances, and how it's accounted for in the OBR public finance forecast.
Early last year, Wes Streeting and NHS England declared a ‘fundamental reset’ of the NHS financial regime. In a new @theifs.bsky.social comment, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org, we show that a big NHS budget top-up was avoided in 25-26. So how was this achieved and what does it mean going forward?
The Institute for Fiscal Studies@theifs.bsky.social · 4w agoNEW: The NHS almost always has its budget topped up. But 2025–26 was different, with a much smaller top-up and no claim on the Treasury Reserve or capital budgets for frontline pressures. @maxwarner.bsky.social & Olly Harvey-Rich’s Green Budget comment on what changed last year [1/4]
Early last year, Wes Streeting and NHS England declared a ‘fundamental reset’ of the NHS financial regime. In a new @theifs.bsky.social comment, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org, we show that a big NHS budget top-up was avoided in 25-26. So how was this achieved and what does it mean going forward?
The Institute for Fiscal Studies@theifs.bsky.social · 4w agoNEW: The NHS almost always has its budget topped up. But 2025–26 was different, with a much smaller top-up and no claim on the Treasury Reserve or capital budgets for frontline pressures. @maxwarner.bsky.social & Olly Harvey-Rich’s Green Budget comment on what changed last year [1/4]
NEW: What are rent controls? How do they impact renters, landlords and rental properties? And are they the answer the UK’s historically high housing costs? 📗 @matthewoulton.bsky.social and Tom Wernham review the evidence in our new explainer on the effects of rent controls ⬇️
This is the most important chart for understanding how working-age benefit spending has changed over last two decades. In overall levels spending as % of GDP is lower now that it was in 2012, but the composition of that spending is very different.
Eduin Latimer@eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 3mo ago3. Rising spending on disability benefits and other health-related benefit spending have pushed up overall spending on benefits for working-age adults and children since the pandemic but as a share of GDP total benefit spending is still lower than it was in 2012.
We have a comment in the Times today on how yesterday's VAT cut will be paid for. The money has to come from somewhere within departmental budgets, but we don't know what will be squeezed. That's different to the bus fares policy, where more specific cuts have been set out
Andy Burnham will shortly be the next PM. In the latest episode of the IFS podcast, @ckfarquharson.bsky.social, Tom Waters and I discuss the main challenges and policy decisions he will soon face. Including defence, welfare, tax, NEETs, social care and the next Spending Review.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies@theifs.bsky.social · 2mo agoNEW PODCAST: The tax and spending choices facing Andy Burnham 🎙️ This week, @ckfarquharson.bsky.social is joined by @maxwarner.bsky.social and Tom Waters to discuss to examine the economic choices facing the incoming Prime Minister.
NEW PODCAST: The tax and spending choices facing Andy Burnham 🎙️ This week, @ckfarquharson.bsky.social is joined by @maxwarner.bsky.social and Tom Waters to discuss to examine the economic choices facing the incoming Prime Minister.
Two key things about yesterday's defence announcement: the scale of the top ups was relatively small, increasing defence spending by about 0.1% of GDP each year; the challenge ahead remains large if defence spending is to hit 3.5% of GDP by 2035.
A few key points from our @theifs.bsky.social response to today's Defence Investment Plan 1. The extra funding is quite small, raising defence spending by 0.1% of GDP in each of the next 3 yrs, reaching 2.7% of GDP from 27-28. We also got plans for 29-30 for the first time, also 2.7% of GDP
The Institute for Fiscal Studies@theifs.bsky.social · 3mo agoNEW: The government's Defence Investment Plan adds £3.8 billion a year over the next four years. How part of it will be funded, and the path to 3.5% by 2035, remain key challenges. 📗 Read @maxwarner.bsky.social & @beeboileau.bsky.social’s response to the announcements: ifs.org.uk/articles/ini...
Could the government borrow more to fund investment in infrastructure? There's a case for borrowing for productive investment, but there isn't one simple trick to substantially increase borrowing within the current fiscal rules. A short thread:
New NHS waiting times data out today. The share of patients waiting ≤18 weeks for elective care dropped a little in Apr, but is still (with rounding!) 65%. List size has gone up a bit. See my thread from last month on how the NHS pushed hard to reach the 65% intermediate target
Max Warner@maxwarner.bsky.social · 4mo agoIt wasn’t the biggest story yesterday, but the NHS in England hit its intermediate target that 65% of patients should be waiting 18 weeks or less for elective care by Mar26. That’s after big recent improvements from 61.5% in Jan to 65.3% in March. So how was this achieved?🧵
The constant rumours around marginally different top ups to defence spending alongside the Defence Investment Plan over the last few months have been frustrating. As Max sets out, the DIP is just one part of the govt's overall plan to increase defence spending and capabilities
Max Warner@maxwarner.bsky.social · 3mo agoI don’t think we should over-focus on the DIP. It’s a good example of the challenges of increasing defence spending given the UK’s fiscal situation. But the govt’s broader commitments for defence spending are much larger and go beyond the next four years
Lots of discussion in recent weeks about how to fund the (much-delayed!) Defence Investment Plan. While this is important, it is only the first step in the longer-term and much larger defence spending increase this government has committed to. A short thread:
Reaching the NATO defence spending commitment and increasing UK defence spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2035 would reshape the British state. Last week @maxwarner.bsky.social set out the big societal questions this raises at Treasury Select Committee @hoccommittees.parliament.uk.
It's really striking some of the changes in the NHS workforce in recent years. Overall staffing growth has slowed down a lot. Doctor and nurse numbers still rising, but other groups are seeing slow downs or even falls
Max Warner@maxwarner.bsky.social · 4mo agoThis trend is in line with the last few years: there are now 20% more doctors in NHS trusts than in 2022, but just 4% more support staff and 9% more estates, admin and management staff. Is this a deliberate policy choice? Or cash-strapped trusts cutting back on recruitment? (5/7)
My colleagues have a report out today on civil legal aid, an important part of the justice system. Restrictions to eligibility in 2013 brought down spending/caseloads. The # of legal aid providers has continued to fall over time, and more and more areas have no provider at all
The Institute for Fiscal Studies@theifs.bsky.social · 4mo agoCivil legal aid has fallen sharply since the LASPO act intentionally restricting eligibility came into force in 2013. By 2024, case volumes were around 57% below pre-reform levels, while spending had fallen by nearly 15% after adjusting for inflation.
We now have data for NHS staffing and hospital activity in England for all of 2025–26. There’s a lot of interesting things going on, so here’s a short thread on some of the key patterns. As the chart below shows, most staff groups and most types of activity are up year-on-year
IFS economists are giving evidence to the Treasury Select Committee twice this week: 🟢Tues at 9:45am: Kate Ogden on student loans 🟢Wed at 2:15pm: @maxwarner.bsky.social on defence spending Find out more about the sessions and how to watch here: committees.parliament.uk/committee/15...
Any PM and Chancellor will be constrained by the same set of fiscal challenges. In this episode @helenmiller.bsky.social @chrisgiles.ft.com and I explain the public finance backdrop - debt, borrowing, tax and spending plans - that will shape political choices over the coming years
The Institute for Fiscal Studies@theifs.bsky.social · 4mo agoNEW PODCAST: The tough fiscal reality facing the UK government @helenmiller.bsky.social, @chrisgiles.ft.com & @maxwarner.bsky.social discuss the state of the public finances, why borrowing costs matter, and how much room there is to do things differently. 🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/tou...
If you like your economics to be reality-based, impartial and not always doom laden, listen to this @theifs.bsky.social podcast on the public finances with me @helenmiller.bsky.social and @maxwarner.bsky.social ifs.org.uk/articles/tou...
The tough fiscal reality facing the UK government | Institute for Fiscal Studies
Britain faces high debt, high borrowing costs, rising taxes and stretched public services. We explain the fiscal reality facing any government.
ifs.org.uk
This is most striking figure from Millburn Review. They estimate that around half of the 18-24 population who are not in education, employment or training (NEET) are not claiming any benefits. This limits how effective any reforms to the benefit system can be in reducing the NEET rate.
It's still unclear what the shift to community will do in the NHS. But in a middle-income context, @bancalaria.bsky.social et al find that El Salvador's multidisciplinary community health teams increased preventative appts, shifted the mix of care and reduced preventable hospitalisations.
It wasn’t the biggest story yesterday, but the NHS in England hit its intermediate target that 65% of patients should be waiting 18 weeks or less for elective care by Mar26. That’s after big recent improvements from 61.5% in Jan to 65.3% in March. So how was this achieved?🧵
It wasn’t the biggest story yesterday, but the NHS in England hit its intermediate target that 65% of patients should be waiting 18 weeks or less for elective care by Mar26. That’s after big recent improvements from 61.5% in Jan to 65.3% in March. So how was this achieved?🧵
Here is our summary of the parties' plans for the Scottish NHS. A lot of consensus on e.g. more primary care and prevention. Some parties have set out plans for total health spending, but they imply quite slow growth - reflecting the tough fiscal reality faced by the next govt
The Institute for Fiscal Studies@theifs.bsky.social · 5mo agoWATCH LIVE: Scottish Elections 2026: What are the parties’ plans on tax, spending and the economy? 🖥️ Watch our joint event with Centre for Public Policy live here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=-TbN...