NEW: How does being a 25-year-old today compare to previous generations? 📊 Here’s what our new explainer, with analysis produced exclusively for the BBC, finds about earnings, employment and housing for young adults [THREAD 🧵 ]:
Eduin Latimer
@eduinlatimer.bsky.social
Economist at Institute for Fiscal Studies, interested in low-paying labour market and the tax and benefit system.
This is the most important chart for understanding how working-age benefit spending has changed over last two decades. In overall levels spending as % of GDP is lower now that it was in 2012, but the composition of that spending is very different.
Eduin Latimer@eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 4w ago3. Rising spending on disability benefits and other health-related benefit spending have pushed up overall spending on benefits for working-age adults and children since the pandemic but as a share of GDP total benefit spending is still lower than it was in 2012.
3. Rising spending on disability benefits and other health-related benefit spending have pushed up overall spending on benefits for working-age adults and children since the pandemic but as a share of GDP total benefit spending is still lower than it was in 2012.
This is an amazing chart - but it shows *relative* inequality. Because wealth has grown from 3.5 to 7 times annual GDP since 1991, the *absolute* wealth gaps are wider, and stagnant wages mean it's harder to earn your way up the ladder. So beneath the surface, still cause for concern.
Jemima Kelly@jemima.bsky.social · 2w agoAn amazing chart showing how much wealth inequality in Britain has *fallen* over the past century - taken from this Quillette piece on Channel 4's failure to fact-check the whole premise of its Gary Stevenson documentary. quillette.com/2026/07/14/g...
The Timms Review Interim Report came out today. They say that Personal Independence Payment (PIP, the UK's working age disability benefit) is 'not fit for purpose.' Brief thread based on @theifs.bsky.social research with 5 key stats you need to know about the issue:
Great thread by Nick on the options for increasing public investment within the government's fiscal rules
Nick Ridpath@nickridpath.bsky.social · last mo.Could the government borrow more to fund investment in infrastructure? There's a case for borrowing for productive investment, but there isn't one simple trick to substantially increase borrowing within the current fiscal rules. A short thread:
The OBR have released a new insightful report overpayments on fraud and overpayments in the benefit system. A brief🧵 explaining the key points:
Really enjoyed talking to the More or Less team about work incentives within the benefit system. You can hear the episode here: www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...
More or Less - Benefits v minimum wage: Which pays more? - BBC Sounds
Tim Harford examines benefits v work, dangerous temperatures and the World Cup draw.
bbc.co.uk
Heard from a reliable source that Mythos, a system capable of cracking any software system, stealing the nuclear codes and watching Putin while he takes a shower, is still reduced to a blubbering, incontinent wreck by the website of our Office for National Statistics, and this makes me damned proud
Some new evidence from Millburn review: Young people are staying on both incapacity benefits (UC health) and disability benefits (PIP) longer than they use to. There has been a lot of focus on the big increase in new claimants for both benefits, but slowing outflows are also part of the story.
If you like your economics to be reality-based, impartial and not always doom laden, listen to this @theifs.bsky.social podcast on the public finances with me @helenmiller.bsky.social and @maxwarner.bsky.social ifs.org.uk/articles/tou...
The tough fiscal reality facing the UK government | Institute for Fiscal Studies
Britain faces high debt, high borrowing costs, rising taxes and stretched public services. We explain the fiscal reality facing any government.
ifs.org.uk
This is most striking figure from Millburn Review. They estimate that around half of the 18-24 population who are not in education, employment or training (NEET) are not claiming any benefits. This limits how effective any reforms to the benefit system can be in reducing the NEET rate.
Sensible to trial new ways of embedding health and employment support earlier for people with health issues that affect their work or capacity to work. Vitally important that these trials are set up so they can be rigorously evaluated and learned from. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Scheme to trial scrapping fit notes to get people back to work
The government says the system is "broken", with too many people signed off work with no help to return.
bbc.co.uk
NEW: The new tax on salary sacrifice pension contributions are set to hit higher earners in the private sector the hardest. 📗 @laurenceobrien.bsky.social & @matthewoulton.bsky.social’s new report examines who will be most affected by changes to how salary sacrifice pension contributions are taxed:
New PIP (disability benefits) data is out and it will be welcome news to the government who have expressed a desire to slow the rise in PIP claims. The number of new PIP claims each month has fallen again and is now considerably below its peak although still well above pre-pandemic levels.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies@theifs.bsky.social · 5mo agoNEW: Today’s new statistics show that the number of people starting disability benefits each month has continued to decline. Monthly awards are still above pre-pandemic levels, however. 📊 @eduinlatimer.bsky.social and Sam Ray-Chaudhuri’s new comment explains the new data:
NEW: Today’s new statistics show that the number of people starting disability benefits each month has continued to decline. Monthly awards are still above pre-pandemic levels, however. 📊 @eduinlatimer.bsky.social and Sam Ray-Chaudhuri’s new comment explains the new data:
Great analysis by my @theifs.bsky.social colleagues. The Government's jobs guarantee and youth jobs grant provide big (if temporary) incentives to hire young people who have been unemployed and on the relevant bit of universal credit for more than 6 months.
Xiaowei Xu@xiaoweixu.bsky.social · 5mo agoYesterday’s announcement hugely reduces the short-term cost of hiring 18-24 year olds on UC, even compared to FY2024 before the rise in youth min wage rates and employer NICs. More (bonus) charts and reflections below 🧵👇
Today we updated our @theifs.bsky.social spending tool with 2024-25 data! Do have a play around with it if you're having a quiet Friday afternoon - it lets you produce some nice breakdowns of different types of spending, across different areas and over time: ifs.org.uk/calculators/...
This is a great briefing by my @theifs.bsky.social colleagues. With energy prices rising, now is the time to think about how best to design any potential support package. Government can use linked data on energy usage and income to deliver well-targeted interventions without distorting energy prices
The Institute for Fiscal Studies@theifs.bsky.social · 5mo agoNew: War in the Middle East has pushed up energy prices, which if sustained, could put pressure on households and the public finances. How might the government choose to respond? 📈 @peterlevell.bsky.social, @nickridpath.bsky.social and Bobbie Upton’s new briefing explores the options:
The Spring Forecast confirmed that the Spending Review next year looks tough. Plans are currently for departmental spending to grow by just 0.9% per year on average in real terms in the next Spending Review period, much slower than planned for the first part of the parliament.
Here it is, my magnum opus: an analysis of what’s wrong with the UK’s approach to fiscal policy (under this and previous governments), and a proposal for what an alternative to pass-fail fiscal rules could look like. I’ll follow up with a longer thread later.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies@theifs.bsky.social · 6mo agoNEW: The UK’s approach to fiscal policy needs a rethink. 📗 Instead of pass–fail fiscal rules and the consequent fixation on ‘fiscal headroom’, @benzaranko.bsky.social’s new report argues that the UK would be better served by a new framework, based around a set of ‘fiscal traffic lights’:
Scotland benefits from free university tuition, free personal care services, and smaller class sizes than England. Why? Because the Scottish Government receives 26% more funding per resident than is spent in England on comparable services. This funding advantage is now being (very) gradually eroded.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies@theifs.bsky.social · 6mo agoNEW: The next Scottish Government will face tough choices as their funding advantage relative to England falls, making it harder to continue providing more generous services and benefits than England. 🧵 THREAD on David Phillips and Martin Brogaard’s new Scottish election report:
An excellent and much-needed explainer of our complicated and controversial student loans system
The Institute for Fiscal Studies@theifs.bsky.social · 6mo agoNEW: How do Plan 2 student loans (for those who started university courses between 2012 and 2022) work? And how have recent changes to the repayment terms changed how much graduates can expect to repay? 🧵 IFS Senior Research Economist Kate Ogden explains:
The @lowpaycommission.bsky.social annual report is out. As always contains lots of insights. This is key chart for me: 20% of jobs are now paid within £1 of the minimum wage, up from 14% in 2015. Whatever you think of the minimum wage, its increasingly important!
Great to make first appearance on IFS Zooms In Pod. @helenmiller.bsky.social and I were joined by the excellent @alanmanning4.bsky.social to talk about what's happened to to the UK minimum wage, and what impact its having on the UK labour market. Give it a listen.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies@theifs.bsky.social · 6mo agoNEW PODCAST: Is the minimum wage costing jobs? @helenmiller.bsky.social, @eduinlatimer.bsky.social and @alanmanning4.bsky.social discuss what we know and what we don't know about the UK minimum wage in our new podcast. 🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/min...
Here's a starter pack of IFS economists posting on BlueSky. Make sure you're following them all for the top-quality economic analysis on labour markets, inequality, public finances, healthcare, education and more! go.bsky.app/NYPwMB
New ONS public finance data today shows central government revenues are still lagging significantly below March expectations. Given inflation has been higher than forecast, this is surprising - even VAT receipts, which one might expect to rise with inflation, are below forecast
Great to get this new research out. We find that following cuts to non-health benefit income cause more people to claim disability benefits.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies@theifs.bsky.social · 8mo ago"The big-picture lesson for policymakers is that changes to one part of the benefit system can shift pressures elsewhere, rather than remove them entirely." 📗 Read our report, funded by @jrf-uk.bsky.social and @healthfoundation.bsky.social, here: ifs.org.uk/publications...
NEW: Cuts to non-health-related benefits caused increases in disability benefit claims, our new report finds. 📗 Jonathan Cribb, @heidikarj.bsky.social, @eduinlatimer.bsky.social, Sam Ray-Chaudhuri and Tom Waters examine the impact of four cuts to benefits in the 2010s [THREAD:🧵]:
The government has announced it intends to abolish the two-child limit, at a cost of £3bn according to @OBR_UK. This is one of the most cost-effective levers the government has to achieve a quick reduction in child poverty, given the high poverty rates among larger families. #Budget2025
