This is the most important chart for understanding how working-age benefit spending has changed over last two decades. In overall levels spending as % of GDP is lower now that it was in 2012, but the composition of that spending is very different.

Eduin Latimer@eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 4w ago

3. Rising spending on disability benefits and other health-related benefit spending have pushed up overall spending on benefits for working-age adults and children since the pandemic but as a share of GDP total benefit spending is still lower than it was in 2012.

We have a comment in the Times today on how yesterday's VAT cut will be paid for. The money has to come from somewhere within departmental budgets, but we don't know what will be squeezed. That's different to the bus fares policy, where more specific cuts have been set out

Andy Burnham will shortly be the next PM. In the latest episode of the IFS podcast, @ckfarquharson.bsky.social, Tom Waters and I discuss the main challenges and policy decisions he will soon face. Including defence, welfare, tax, NEETs, social care and the next Spending Review.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies@theifs.bsky.social · 3w ago

NEW PODCAST: The tax and spending choices facing Andy Burnham 🎙️ This week, @ckfarquharson.bsky.social is joined by @maxwarner.bsky.social and Tom Waters to discuss to examine the economic choices facing the incoming Prime Minister.

NEW PODCAST: The tax and spending choices facing Andy Burnham 🎙️ This week, @ckfarquharson.bsky.social is joined by @maxwarner.bsky.social and Tom Waters to discuss to examine the economic choices facing the incoming Prime Minister.

Two key things about yesterday's defence announcement: the scale of the top ups was relatively small, increasing defence spending by about 0.1% of GDP each year; the challenge ahead remains large if defence spending is to hit 3.5% of GDP by 2035.

A few key points from our @theifs.bsky.social response to today's Defence Investment Plan 1. The extra funding is quite small, raising defence spending by 0.1% of GDP in each of the next 3 yrs, reaching 2.7% of GDP from 27-28. We also got plans for 29-30 for the first time, also 2.7% of GDP

The Institute for Fiscal Studies@theifs.bsky.social · last mo.

NEW: The government's Defence Investment Plan adds £3.8 billion a year over the next four years. How part of it will be funded, and the path to 3.5% by 2035, remain key challenges. 📗 Read @maxwarner.bsky.social & @beeboileau.bsky.social’s response to the announcements: ifs.org.uk/articles/ini...

Could the government borrow more to fund investment in infrastructure? There's a case for borrowing for productive investment, but there isn't one simple trick to substantially increase borrowing within the current fiscal rules. A short thread:

New NHS waiting times data out today. The share of patients waiting ≤18 weeks for elective care dropped a little in Apr, but is still (with rounding!) 65%. List size has gone up a bit. See my thread from last month on how the NHS pushed hard to reach the 65% intermediate target

Max Warner@maxwarner.bsky.social · 3mo ago

It wasn’t the biggest story yesterday, but the NHS in England hit its intermediate target that 65% of patients should be waiting 18 weeks or less for elective care by Mar26. That’s after big recent improvements from 61.5% in Jan to 65.3% in March. So how was this achieved?🧵

The constant rumours around marginally different top ups to defence spending alongside the Defence Investment Plan over the last few months have been frustrating. As Max sets out, the DIP is just one part of the govt's overall plan to increase defence spending and capabilities

Max Warner@maxwarner.bsky.social · 2mo ago

I don’t think we should over-focus on the DIP. It’s a good example of the challenges of increasing defence spending given the UK’s fiscal situation. But the govt’s broader commitments for defence spending are much larger and go beyond the next four years

Lots of discussion in recent weeks about how to fund the (much-delayed!) Defence Investment Plan. While this is important, it is only the first step in the longer-term and much larger defence spending increase this government has committed to. A short thread:

Reaching the NATO defence spending commitment and increasing UK defence spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2035 would reshape the British state. Last week @maxwarner.bsky.social set out the big societal questions this raises at Treasury Select Committee @hoccommittees.parliament.uk.

It's really striking some of the changes in the NHS workforce in recent years. Overall staffing growth has slowed down a lot. Doctor and nurse numbers still rising, but other groups are seeing slow downs or even falls

Max Warner@maxwarner.bsky.social · 2mo ago

This trend is in line with the last few years: there are now 20% more doctors in NHS trusts than in 2022, but just 4% more support staff and 9% more estates, admin and management staff. Is this a deliberate policy choice? Or cash-strapped trusts cutting back on recruitment? (5/7)

My colleagues have a report out today on civil legal aid, an important part of the justice system. Restrictions to eligibility in 2013 brought down spending/caseloads. The # of legal aid providers has continued to fall over time, and more and more areas have no provider at all

The Institute for Fiscal Studies@theifs.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Civil legal aid has fallen sharply since the LASPO act intentionally restricting eligibility came into force in 2013. By 2024, case volumes were around 57% below pre-reform levels, while spending had fallen by nearly 15% after adjusting for inflation.

We now have data for NHS staffing and hospital activity in England for all of 2025–26. There’s a lot of interesting things going on, so here’s a short thread on some of the key patterns. As the chart below shows, most staff groups and most types of activity are up year-on-year

IFS economists are giving evidence to the Treasury Select Committee twice this week: 🟢Tues at 9:45am: Kate Ogden on student loans 🟢Wed at 2:15pm: @maxwarner.bsky.social on defence spending Find out more about the sessions and how to watch here: committees.parliament.uk/committee/15...

Any PM and Chancellor will be constrained by the same set of fiscal challenges. In this episode @helenmiller.bsky.social @chrisgiles.ft.com and I explain the public finance backdrop - debt, borrowing, tax and spending plans - that will shape political choices over the coming years

The Institute for Fiscal Studies@theifs.bsky.social · 2mo ago

NEW PODCAST: The tough fiscal reality facing the UK government @helenmiller.bsky.social, @chrisgiles.ft.com & @maxwarner.bsky.social discuss the state of the public finances, why borrowing costs matter, and how much room there is to do things differently. 🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/tou...

If you like your economics to be reality-based, impartial and not always doom laden, listen to this @theifs.bsky.social podcast on the public finances with me @helenmiller.bsky.social and @maxwarner.bsky.social ifs.org.uk/articles/tou...

The tough fiscal reality facing the UK government | Institute for Fiscal Studies

Britain faces high debt, high borrowing costs, rising taxes and stretched public services. We explain the fiscal reality facing any government.

ifs.org.uk

This is most striking figure from Millburn Review. They estimate that around half of the 18-24 population who are not in education, employment or training (NEET) are not claiming any benefits. This limits how effective any reforms to the benefit system can be in reducing the NEET rate.

It's still unclear what the shift to community will do in the NHS. But in a middle-income context, @bancalaria.bsky.social et al find that El Salvador's multidisciplinary community health teams increased preventative appts, shifted the mix of care and reduced preventable hospitalisations.

It wasn’t the biggest story yesterday, but the NHS in England hit its intermediate target that 65% of patients should be waiting 18 weeks or less for elective care by Mar26. That’s after big recent improvements from 61.5% in Jan to 65.3% in March. So how was this achieved?🧵

It wasn’t the biggest story yesterday, but the NHS in England hit its intermediate target that 65% of patients should be waiting 18 weeks or less for elective care by Mar26. That’s after big recent improvements from 61.5% in Jan to 65.3% in March. So how was this achieved?🧵

Here is our summary of the parties' plans for the Scottish NHS. A lot of consensus on e.g. more primary care and prevention. Some parties have set out plans for total health spending, but they imply quite slow growth - reflecting the tough fiscal reality faced by the next govt

The Institute for Fiscal Studies@theifs.bsky.social · 3mo ago

WATCH LIVE: Scottish Elections 2026: What are the parties’ plans on tax, spending and the economy? 🖥️ Watch our joint event with Centre for Public Policy live here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=-TbN...

One thing I find really striking on defence spending: the Strategic Defence Review was meant to be deliverable with *slower* defence spending than currently planned. The govt accepted all its recommendations. But it's long looked very ambitious to deliver within spending plans

Financial Times@financialtimes.com · 4mo ago

Starmer accused of ‘corrosive complacency’ on UK defence by former Nato chief ft.trib.al/zagwzgh

Important work from my colleagues. If you care about wealth inequality, you need to be able to measure wealth well. That's hard. With an improved methodology, it looks like wealth gaps by age were smaller than official statistics would suggest

The Institute for Fiscal Studies@theifs.bsky.social · 4mo ago

NEW: The gap in wealth between old and young over the 2010s has been overstated by official statistics. Isaac Delestre and @laurenceobrien.bsky.social's new report shows how wealth is distributed in the UK using a new and consistent methodology for calculating pension wealth:

Do listen to our latest podcast on the challenges facing the next Scottish government. One is that public services, inc. the NHS, are still struggling to recover from the pandemic. Hospital activity, for example, is still below pre-pandemic levels, unlike in England or Wales

The Institute for Fiscal Studies@theifs.bsky.social · 4mo ago

NEW PODCAST: What does this election mean for Scotland’s future? @helenmiller.bsky.social, Mairi Spowage and David Phillips unpack the big economic and fiscal questions hanging over the Scottish Parliament election. 🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/wha...

I'm looking forward to taking part in this event on NHS productivity on the 30th April - do sign up to come along

The Productivity Institute@productivity.bsky.social · 4mo ago

#NationalProductivityWeek event, 30 April | London What does it take to improve NHS productivity? Experts from @alliancembs.bsky.social, @theifs.bsky.social, ONS & NHS England discuss variation, innovation and reform needed for a more resilient health service: www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/what-does-...

We have just updated our @theifs.bsky.social public spending tool. It allows you to explore how and where the government spends its money in the UK, now up to 2024-25. You can check it out here: ifs.org.uk/calculators/...

A year ago we published @theifs.bsky.social analysis of whether and how the govt could hit their 18 week waiting time target. Performance has improved over the last year, and lies between our scenarios. Things could change, but it still doesn't look like we are on track for 92% by 2029

NEW: How is the Welsh NHS performing, and how does it compare to England and Scotland? We have a new @theifs.bsky.social report out today looking at public service spending and performance in Wales, in advance of the Senedd elections. 🧵on the key Welsh NHS takeaways [1/10]

How is the Scottish NHS performing, and how does it compare to England and Wales? On Saturday we published a new @theifs.bsky.social report looking at public service spending and performance in Scotland, in advance of the devolved elections. 🧵on the key Scottish NHS takeaways [1/10]