Joyland was great. Somehow one of the best trans movies of the past few years was produced by Malala.

Angel "Anal Elf" Perez@angelperez.eurosky.social · 2w ago

here's why I don't really fuck with most of the transploitation wave movies: joyland. best movie I saw that year. if you watch this and go back through the others you will put your fist through a fucking wall, for the most part

A nice tutorial on modern gradient-based MCMC samplers highlighting the link between continuous time theoretical analysis and issues that matter to practitioners. This would have been ideal background for understanding modern developments in MCMC I saw at math.ethz.ch/fim/activiti...

From Continuous Dynamics to Practical Gradient-Based Samplers

Gradient-based Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are often introduced as a catalog of algorithms: Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC), the Metropolis-adjusted Langevin algorithm (MALA), the No-U-Turn Sampler...

arxiv.org

"The Abyss" by the way, née The Abyssinian, is the name of the combination queer bar/performance venue/Ethiopian restaurant Mel took me out to in West Philadelphia. Recommended. Get the sambusas.

Mel Andrews@bayesianboy.bsky.social · last mo.

Among the better words I have read in recent times.

Due to a travel mishap, I have one night in Philadelphia starting now. What should I do in (almost) paradise?

"How many selves are there? At least three. What are they? Don’t play games with me kid." -Rafe on a game-theoretic model of the closet (among other things) by Benabou and Tirole.

Rafe Meager (they/them)@economeager.bsky.social · last mo.

Happy friday! open.substack.com/pub/rottenan...

OK, it's time to fortify our set of baselines for an MCMC paper. What's the latest in fast/reliable samplers for nonlinear state space models? We have NUTS/HMC/SMC^2/a few variants of Particle Metropolis. There have to be some new update schemes or maybe GPU options worth trying.

☹️

The Loch Ness Monster@nessiopeia.space · last mo.

Economists are fundamentally excluded from the LGBTQ+ umbrella

Yuri forums even made it to his dissertation acknowledgement #girlslove #yuri #anime

Rachel Leah Childers@donskerclass.bsky.social · last mo.

Inspirational: one of the new Fields Medalists is a himedanshi.

Inspirational: one of the new Fields Medalists is a himedanshi.

Quanta Magazine@quantamagazine.org · last mo.

Yu Deng, who, with his collaborators, solved David Hilbert’s 125-year-old “sixth problem,” has just won the Fields Medal. Read our profile exploring his work bringing together the worlds of probability and wave equations: www.quantamagazine.org/yu-deng-wins...

Flash back to one time about 15 or 20 years ago when we happened to be in SF in June so my dad took me to Pride and at the festival he walked up to a booth and said "Oh, leather? Do you sell, like, a wallet or maybe a belt?" while I quietly died of embarrassment.

Max Dubler 🏳️‍🌈@maxdubler.com · 2mo ago

Happy pride specifically to the supportive straight parents who bring their embarrassed teenage queer children to the San Francisco pride parade.

New answer to "Which moments to match?" just dropped, by Andrews and Sanders economics.mit.edu/sites/defaul... Pick parameter value \bar{theta} to fit your ideological goal, and then match moments in the following set, and you are guaranteed to get the result you want. 😬

BK: Taylor circularity ⇒ eigenvalues on edge of stability, π indeterminate along the stable manifold FTPL: transversality in the bond market restores uniqueness via repricing to restore gov't solvency Non-Ricardian: π pinned down by contemporary fiscal, Taylor coef doesn't determine stability

Mike Konczal@mtkonczal.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Regular-brain: Kevin Warsh's first press conference was confusing. Galaxy-brain: That press conference was circular. Universe-brain: That was indeterminate, it failed Blanchard-Kahn conditions. The confusion financial markets felt coming out of that press conference derives from economic logic.

I went to this show last night entirely based on Maia's reputation as a hacker and was somehow unsurprised to find she's an amazing DJ as well. A+ 💯💯

maia arson crimew 🏴@crimew.gay · 3mo ago

craxziest mix of my life so far, holy shit. getting called back on stage for an encore as a dj is insane, thanks 4 the energy zürich <3

A helpful clarifying note from Greg Kaplan on uniqueness in the New Keynesian model under different fiscal and monetary rules, and comparison with the non-Ricardian case. Continuous time gives closed forms that simplify the analysis a lot. static1.squarespace.com/static/5d694...

I had a lovely first day at the ETH conference on Scalable MCMC Sampling! I'm looking forward to the next 2 days of digging deep into sampling methods.

Schedule

All lectures take place in room HG F 3.

math.ethz.ch

Causal graphs may look complicated, but they simplify checking the bestiary of failure modes in DiD with time-varying covariates. Worry when you have feedback from outcomes to covariates, treatment, or outcome, and worry about long term effects with treatment->covariate feedback. Essential reading!

Michael Knaus@mcknaus.bsky.social · 5mo ago

We illustrate why outcome dynamics rule out PT, unless more restrictions are imposed. Y0 becomes a dilemma node that can only block one of two open paths between D and ΔYt

Springtime Saturday skateboarding. 🛹

Well-deserved recognition for @ludwigstraub.bsky.social! His work w/ coauthors on "sequence-space" methods has transformed computation, empirics, and policy analysis in macro, offering a model representation which is general, intuitive, computationally tractable, and amenable to empirical testing.

AEA Information@aeainformation.bsky.social · 5mo ago

Congratulations to Ludwig Straub @ludwigstraub.bsky.social of @harvard.edu, winner of the 2026 John Bates Clark Medal! www.aeaweb.org/about-aea/ho...

Just starting to dig into this, but, a ? for macroeconomists. Standard models of wage rigidity a la Erceg Henderson Levin imply MPL above MRS, while modern consensus in labor econ, reviewed here, shows MRS>MPL ("monopsony"). Does this make a difference for macroeconomic dynamics? Maybe maybe not

Arin Dube@arindube.bsky.social · 9mo ago

Why did that happen, what does it tell us, and what can we do next? That’s what my forthcoming book, The Wage Standard, is about: how rules, norms, and power in the labor market shape who shares in growth. Coming out March 31. Pre-order here: www.thewagestandard.com

Paul Rosenbaum's Causal Inference book is strongly recommended even if you think you don't need another intro causal inference book. It's short, it's precise, and it's thoughtful about sensitivity analysis and using all the evidence we have. www.goodreads.com/review/show/...

They've finally done it! Congrats to Britain on using fractal geometry to open the world's first infinitely long hiking path! www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

How Long Is the Coast of Britain? Statistical Self-Similarity and Fractional Dimension

Geographical curves are so involved in their detail that their lengths are often infinite or, rather, undefinable. However, many are statistically "self-similar," meaning that each portion can be cons...

science.org

James O’Brien@mrjamesob.bsky.social · 6mo ago

This is absolutely brilliant. Instigated by Gordon Brown, delivered today. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

I emailed him once a few years ago because he'd proposed (see vid) Bayesian ways of thinking about some classic microeconometric results that bring out the economic structure. I didn't get a response, but working through it changed how I do econometrics. www.chamberlainseminar.org/past-seminar...

I met Sims once at a conference, but like for many his main influence on me was through papers. His early work on VARs used a Hilbert space formalism that gets ignored in modern treatments but expressed the futility of truly agnostic structure learning and influenced his advocacy for Bayesianism.

I read and mostly liked @maxkasy.bsky.social's book on the economics of AI, "The Means of Prediction". I did think it could use a bit more Herbert Simon. Long review: 👇 www.goodreads.com/review/show/...

Belatedly following up on the discourse on transfem depictions in art, the Rijksmuseum's new Ovid exhibition showcases Bernini's 'Sleeping Hermaphroditus' (1620) which has the integrity to show us as we truly are: sooooo sleepy. 🥱💤 God I love naps, and that mattress looks so comfy...

Odes to Ovid: 2,000 years of art inspired by Metamorphoses at the Rijksmuseum

With works from Caravaggio to Louise Bourgeois, this spectacular Amsterdam show reminds us of art’s eternal pleasures

ft.com

Congratulations to Charles Manski on winning the BBVA Frontiers Award for his foundational contributions to partial identification, semiparametric methods, subjective expectations, social interactions and policy decision-making under uncertainty www.premiosfronterasdelconocimiento.es/noticias/xvi...

XVIII Premio Fronteras del Conocimiento en Economía a Charles Manski

por incorporar la incertidumbre en la investigación económica y su aplicación al análisis de las políticas públicas

premiosfronterasdelconocimiento.es

This contained a nice reminder that Ben has a book coming out about computational frameworks for decision making and how he doesn't like any of them. Preordered!

The Irrational Decision

How the computer revolution shaped our conception of rationality—and why human problems require solutions rooted in human intuition, morality, and judgment

press.princeton.edu

Ben Recht@beenwrekt.bsky.social · 6mo ago

Part one of a new blog series: using the discovery of vitamins as a parable for why replication crises in science are actually good.

A new blog post motivated from this amazing discussion with @akhilrao.bsky.social and @donskerclass.bsky.social #EconSky #RStats #Stan jamesblandecon.github.io/posts/2026-0...

To give you a sense of how it feels, if I were trapped in a room and forced to take in messages written in Chinese and send out responses from a codebook all day everyday, I would not appreciate if every discussion of my situation were about consciousness and none at all were about how to get out.