Rachel Leah Childers
@donskerclass.bsky.social
Econometrics, Statistics, Computational Economics, etc http://donskerclass.github.io 🇺🇲 in 🇨🇭. 🏳️⚧️
"The Abyss" by the way, née The Abyssinian, is the name of the combination queer bar/performance venue/Ethiopian restaurant Mel took me out to in West Philadelphia. Recommended. Get the sambusas.
Mel Andrews@bayesianboy.bsky.social · 24h agoAmong the better words I have read in recent times.
Due to a travel mishap, I have one night in Philadelphia starting now. What should I do in (almost) paradise?
"How many selves are there? At least three. What are they? Don’t play games with me kid." -Rafe on a game-theoretic model of the closet (among other things) by Benabou and Tirole.
Rafe Meager (they/them)@economeager.bsky.social · 6d agoHappy friday! open.substack.com/pub/rottenan...
OK, it's time to fortify our set of baselines for an MCMC paper. What's the latest in fast/reliable samplers for nonlinear state space models? We have NUTS/HMC/SMC^2/a few variants of Particle Metropolis. There have to be some new update schemes or maybe GPU options worth trying.
Yuri forums even made it to his dissertation acknowledgement #girlslove #yuri #anime
Rachel Leah Childers@donskerclass.bsky.social · 2w agoInspirational: one of the new Fields Medalists is a himedanshi.
Inspirational: one of the new Fields Medalists is a himedanshi.
Quanta Magazine@quantamagazine.org · 2w agoYu Deng, who, with his collaborators, solved David Hilbert’s 125-year-old “sixth problem,” has just won the Fields Medal. Read our profile exploring his work bringing together the worlds of probability and wave equations: www.quantamagazine.org/yu-deng-wins...
Biddery-Askery Myerson-Satterthwaite Proved that two bargainers, Values concealed, Can't trade both truthfully, Solvent and rational, Ex-post-efficiently Deals stay unsealed.
Flash back to one time about 15 or 20 years ago when we happened to be in SF in June so my dad took me to Pride and at the festival he walked up to a booth and said "Oh, leather? Do you sell, like, a wallet or maybe a belt?" while I quietly died of embarrassment.
Max Dubler 🏳️🌈@maxdubler.com · last mo.Happy pride specifically to the supportive straight parents who bring their embarrassed teenage queer children to the San Francisco pride parade.
New answer to "Which moments to match?" just dropped, by Andrews and Sanders economics.mit.edu/sites/defaul... Pick parameter value \bar{theta} to fit your ideological goal, and then match moments in the following set, and you are guaranteed to get the result you want. 😬
BK: Taylor circularity ⇒ eigenvalues on edge of stability, π indeterminate along the stable manifold FTPL: transversality in the bond market restores uniqueness via repricing to restore gov't solvency Non-Ricardian: π pinned down by contemporary fiscal, Taylor coef doesn't determine stability
Mike Konczal@mtkonczal.bsky.social · last mo.Regular-brain: Kevin Warsh's first press conference was confusing. Galaxy-brain: That press conference was circular. Universe-brain: That was indeterminate, it failed Blanchard-Kahn conditions. The confusion financial markets felt coming out of that press conference derives from economic logic.
I went to this show last night entirely based on Maia's reputation as a hacker and was somehow unsurprised to find she's an amazing DJ as well. A+ 💯💯
maia arson crimew 🏴@crimew.gay · 2mo agocraxziest mix of my life so far, holy shit. getting called back on stage for an encore as a dj is insane, thanks 4 the energy zürich <3
A helpful clarifying note from Greg Kaplan on uniqueness in the New Keynesian model under different fiscal and monetary rules, and comparison with the non-Ricardian case. Continuous time gives closed forms that simplify the analysis a lot. static1.squarespace.com/static/5d694...
I had a lovely first day at the ETH conference on Scalable MCMC Sampling! I'm looking forward to the next 2 days of digging deep into sampling methods.
Schedule
All lectures take place in room HG F 3.
math.ethz.ch
Causal graphs may look complicated, but they simplify checking the bestiary of failure modes in DiD with time-varying covariates. Worry when you have feedback from outcomes to covariates, treatment, or outcome, and worry about long term effects with treatment->covariate feedback. Essential reading!
Michael Knaus@mcknaus.bsky.social · 4mo agoWe illustrate why outcome dynamics rule out PT, unless more restrictions are imposed. Y0 becomes a dilemma node that can only block one of two open paths between D and ΔYt
Well-deserved recognition for @ludwigstraub.bsky.social! His work w/ coauthors on "sequence-space" methods has transformed computation, empirics, and policy analysis in macro, offering a model representation which is general, intuitive, computationally tractable, and amenable to empirical testing.
AEA Information@aeainformation.bsky.social · 4mo agoCongratulations to Ludwig Straub @ludwigstraub.bsky.social of @harvard.edu, winner of the 2026 John Bates Clark Medal! www.aeaweb.org/about-aea/ho...
Just starting to dig into this, but, a ? for macroeconomists. Standard models of wage rigidity a la Erceg Henderson Levin imply MPL above MRS, while modern consensus in labor econ, reviewed here, shows MRS>MPL ("monopsony"). Does this make a difference for macroeconomic dynamics? Maybe maybe not
Arin Dube@arindube.bsky.social · 8mo agoWhy did that happen, what does it tell us, and what can we do next? That’s what my forthcoming book, The Wage Standard, is about: how rules, norms, and power in the labor market shape who shares in growth. Coming out March 31. Pre-order here: www.thewagestandard.com
Paul Rosenbaum's Causal Inference book is strongly recommended even if you think you don't need another intro causal inference book. It's short, it's precise, and it's thoughtful about sensitivity analysis and using all the evidence we have. www.goodreads.com/review/show/...
They've finally done it! Congrats to Britain on using fractal geometry to open the world's first infinitely long hiking path! www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
How Long Is the Coast of Britain? Statistical Self-Similarity and Fractional Dimension
Geographical curves are so involved in their detail that their lengths are often infinite or, rather, undefinable. However, many are statistically "self-similar," meaning that each portion can be cons...
science.org
James O’Brien@mrjamesob.bsky.social · 5mo agoThis is absolutely brilliant. Instigated by Gordon Brown, delivered today. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
I emailed him once a few years ago because he'd proposed (see vid) Bayesian ways of thinking about some classic microeconometric results that bring out the economic structure. I didn't get a response, but working through it changed how I do econometrics. www.chamberlainseminar.org/past-seminar...
I met Sims once at a conference, but like for many his main influence on me was through papers. His early work on VARs used a Hilbert space formalism that gets ignored in modern treatments but expressed the futility of truly agnostic structure learning and influenced his advocacy for Bayesianism.
I read and mostly liked @maxkasy.bsky.social's book on the economics of AI, "The Means of Prediction". I did think it could use a bit more Herbert Simon. Long review: 👇 www.goodreads.com/review/show/...
Belatedly following up on the discourse on transfem depictions in art, the Rijksmuseum's new Ovid exhibition showcases Bernini's 'Sleeping Hermaphroditus' (1620) which has the integrity to show us as we truly are: sooooo sleepy. 🥱💤 God I love naps, and that mattress looks so comfy...
Odes to Ovid: 2,000 years of art inspired by Metamorphoses at the Rijksmuseum
With works from Caravaggio to Louise Bourgeois, this spectacular Amsterdam show reminds us of art’s eternal pleasures
ft.com
Congratulations to Charles Manski on winning the BBVA Frontiers Award for his foundational contributions to partial identification, semiparametric methods, subjective expectations, social interactions and policy decision-making under uncertainty www.premiosfronterasdelconocimiento.es/noticias/xvi...
XVIII Premio Fronteras del Conocimiento en Economía a Charles Manski
por incorporar la incertidumbre en la investigación económica y su aplicación al análisis de las políticas públicas
premiosfronterasdelconocimiento.es
This contained a nice reminder that Ben has a book coming out about computational frameworks for decision making and how he doesn't like any of them. Preordered!
The Irrational Decision
How the computer revolution shaped our conception of rationality—and why human problems require solutions rooted in human intuition, morality, and judgment
press.princeton.edu
Ben Recht@beenwrekt.bsky.social · 5mo agoPart one of a new blog series: using the discovery of vitamins as a parable for why replication crises in science are actually good.
A new blog post motivated from this amazing discussion with @akhilrao.bsky.social and @donskerclass.bsky.social #EconSky #RStats #Stan jamesblandecon.github.io/posts/2026-0...
JamesBlandEcon: Should I pay for more information?
Answering this question in Stan
jamesblandecon.github.io
To give you a sense of how it feels, if I were trapped in a room and forced to take in messages written in Chinese and send out responses from a codebook all day everyday, I would not appreciate if every discussion of my situation were about consciousness and none at all were about how to get out.
This week's reading: Shon Faye's "The Transgender Issue" If I could recommend cisgender people to read one single book about us, it would probably be this one. It's not personal, it's not prurient, there's no philosophy or metaphysics; it's just facts and policy. www.goodreads.com/review/show/...
Hehehe "Proper understanding of the answers of the above questions should in most cases make you at best ambivalent about DiD. If you still think you have a DiD problem, expect me to try to help you figure out what else you should do"
Rachel Leah Childers@donskerclass.bsky.social · 6mo agoFor Spring semester, I'm bringing back free weekly open office hours for anyone in the world with Econometrics questions. Tuesdays 4-6 PM Central European Time (US EST 10AM-12PM) or by appointment; sign up and drop by! Details and signup at: donskerclass.github.io/OfficeHours....
