Israeli election exit poll out 🧨no block has a majority: Eizenkot (opposition) with 52 seats, Netanyahu block with 50 but Netanyahu with the most votes. Three potential scenarios; 1) a national unity govt between Netanyahu/Eizenkot, 2) oppositon gets Arab parties, 3) new elections.

We're at historic levels thus far in voter turnout in Israel's election (at 56% as of 4pm local time, compared to 47% in the 2022 election). Netanyahu's attempting to mobilize voters based on similar tactics to 2015 warning about Arabs "voting in droves." www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-oct...

Voter turnout at 55.7% as of 4 p.m., highest in recorded history for this hour

Amid record voting levels, election committee says polling stations will stay open after 10 p.m. if people are waiting in line * Netanyahu warns once again of Arab voters ‘racing to the ballots,’ accu...

timesofisrael.com

In a few hours, Israelis head to the polls in the most consequential election. We have witnessed many events, including an attempt to start a new round of war by Bibi with Iran & now an effort to solicit a second endorsement from Trump. Stay tuned for more. www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-oct...

‘Never spoke to him about it’: Trump denies 2nd endorsement of Netanyahu followed pressure from PM

Syria raises death toll to 8 after Jordan launches strikes in response to terror attack at church, closes main border crossing between the countries

timesofisrael.com

Yes, Tisza had a prominent leader. But it wouldn't have succeeded without the on-the-ground mobilisation by over 2,000 semi-autonomous local groups (Tisza Islands). In the end, it was (also) civil society mobilisation that defeated Orbán.

Oliver Grimm@grimmse.bsky.social · yesterday

Isn't it interesting that in Hungary and Serbia, two completely opposite models of organising a political movement managed to beat autocratic leaders? In Hungary, the Tisza Party was entirely designed around a prominent leader. In Serbia, the Student Movement (for good reasons) refused to have one.

Love any work that ends with dropping brand new data

Ben Yoel@benyoel.bsky.social · 2w ago

After three years of work, I am honored to share that my dataset of US Secretary of State speeches (1997-2026) is now public! Jay Revolinsky and I introduce a novel corpus of all remarks delivered by US SoS's throughout the post-Cold War (~17,700 speeches) including Rubio. github.com/revolins/sos...

Thrilled to be presenting on 11/5 virtually as part of the Israeli Political Behavior Workshop my book project with @hmridge.bsky.social on ascriptive identities and support for backsliding using surveys from 5 countries. TLDR: what matters is not only who proposes backsliding but also the target.

After three years of work, I am honored to share that my dataset of US Secretary of State speeches (1997-2026) is now public! Jay Revolinsky and I introduce a novel corpus of all remarks delivered by US SoS's throughout the post-Cold War (~17,700 speeches) including Rubio. github.com/revolins/sos...

GitHub - revolins/sos-corpus: US Secretary of State -- Live Corpus

US Secretary of State -- Live Corpus. Contribute to revolins/sos-corpus development by creating an account on GitHub.

github.com

R&R for my job market paper!!!

Article accepted!!

Our paper introducing the US Secretary of State Speech (USSOS) Dataset (1997-2026) is now live on ArXiv! This was a labor of love, so we hope folks in IR/CP/AP/non-poli sci folks find it useful. A Shiny app will be out in a few weeks. All comments/suggestions most welcome. arxiv.org/abs/2610.19529

Introducing the United States Secretary of State (USSOS) Speech Dataset

A large number of theories in international relations attribute importance to the rhetoric of leading foreign policy actors. Moreover, in recent years, there has been a significant growth in interest ...

arxiv.org

Ben Yoel@benyoel.bsky.social · 2w ago

After three years of work, I am honored to share that my dataset of US Secretary of State speeches (1997-2026) is now public! Jay Revolinsky and I introduce a novel corpus of all remarks delivered by US SoS's throughout the post-Cold War (~17,700 speeches) including Rubio. github.com/revolins/sos...

A very impressive collection of data here. And Ben's on the #polisky job market this year! Check out his work!

Ben Yoel@benyoel.bsky.social · 2w ago

Our paper introducing the US Secretary of State Speech (USSOS) Dataset (1997-2026) is now live on ArXiv! This was a labor of love, so we hope folks in IR/CP/AP/non-poli sci folks find it useful. A Shiny app will be out in a few weeks. All comments/suggestions most welcome. arxiv.org/abs/2610.19529

Our paper introducing the US Secretary of State Speech (USSOS) Dataset (1997-2026) is now live on ArXiv! This was a labor of love, so we hope folks in IR/CP/AP/non-poli sci folks find it useful. A Shiny app will be out in a few weeks. All comments/suggestions most welcome. arxiv.org/abs/2610.19529

Introducing the United States Secretary of State (USSOS) Speech Dataset

A large number of theories in international relations attribute importance to the rhetoric of leading foreign policy actors. Moreover, in recent years, there has been a significant growth in interest ...

arxiv.org

Ben Yoel@benyoel.bsky.social · 2w ago

After three years of work, I am honored to share that my dataset of US Secretary of State speeches (1997-2026) is now public! Jay Revolinsky and I introduce a novel corpus of all remarks delivered by US SoS's throughout the post-Cold War (~17,700 speeches) including Rubio. github.com/revolins/sos...

I’m absolutely delighted to have been selected as an Early Career Fellow in the @epovb.bsky.social section! I’m very privileged and honored to be working with @laurenrprather.bsky.social during the academic year as I develop my book on foreign pressure and opposition to democratic backsliding.

@epovb.bsky.social · 2w ago

Meet 2026–27 EPOVB Early Career Fellow Benjamin Yoel (Stanford)! Benjamin studies democratic backsliding, nonviolent resistance, and authoritarian politics. Mentored by Lauren Prather (UC San Diego). benjaminyoel.com

After three years of work, I am honored to share that my dataset of US Secretary of State speeches (1997-2026) is now public! Jay Revolinsky and I introduce a novel corpus of all remarks delivered by US SoS's throughout the post-Cold War (~17,700 speeches) including Rubio. github.com/revolins/sos...

GitHub - revolins/sos-corpus: US Secretary of State -- Live Corpus

US Secretary of State -- Live Corpus. Contribute to revolins/sos-corpus development by creating an account on GitHub.

github.com

Question to folks that have used CloudResearch for US surveys: do you know how to embed an attention check and use that to remove respondents + do the same with those that don't consent to take the survey? Thanks in advance for all the help!

How do elections in backsliding settings shape attitudes toward democracy? @gabrielagreilinger.com and I fielded two surveys: 1 pre/post & 1 after Hungary's election. In short, elections appear to increase satisfaction among winners, even months after. Working paper: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

Excited to share our new working paper with @benyoel.bsky.social: we analyse public opinion dynamics around the consequential election in Hungary last April and specifically look at (anti-)democratic attitudes in the aftermath of Orbán's defeat. Available here: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

Ben Yoel@benyoel.bsky.social · 4w ago

How do elections in backsliding settings shape attitudes toward democracy? @gabrielagreilinger.com and I fielded two surveys: 1 pre/post & 1 after Hungary's election. In short, elections appear to increase satisfaction among winners, even months after. Working paper: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

How do elections in backsliding settings shape attitudes toward democracy? @gabrielagreilinger.com and I fielded two surveys: 1 pre/post & 1 after Hungary's election. In short, elections appear to increase satisfaction among winners, even months after. Working paper: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

Tomorrow at 9am PT/12pm EST/6pm CET, I'll be giving a talk at @snfagora.bsky.social (virtually) on my job market paper and book project on foreign pressure and opposition to democratic backsliding. All are welcome! Zoom link on website: snfagora.jhu.edu/event/academ...

Ben Yoel@benyoel.bsky.social · last mo.

I'm thrilled to be giving a talk at next week at the @snfagora.bsky.social Academy Workshop on my job market paper, where I examine the causes and consequences of foreign pressure on democracy and democratic backsliding. The talk is fully online, link to join here! snfagora.jhu.edu/event/academ...

Tomorrow at 9am PT/12pm EST/6pm CET, I'll be giving a talk at @snfagora.bsky.social (virtually) on my job market paper and book project on foreign pressure and opposition to democratic backsliding. All are welcome! Zoom link on website: snfagora.jhu.edu/event/academ...

Ben Yoel@benyoel.bsky.social · last mo.

I'm thrilled to be giving a talk at next week at the @snfagora.bsky.social Academy Workshop on my job market paper, where I examine the causes and consequences of foreign pressure on democracy and democratic backsliding. The talk is fully online, link to join here! snfagora.jhu.edu/event/academ...

Question to survey methods folks: is there a paper that shows/examines whether putting items in a matrix makes them more correlated as opposed to including them as separate individual items? Thanks in advance!

Sad I won't be there, but if you're in Atlanta/GA Tech this weekend, check out the excellent @gabrielagreilinger.com presenting our joint work on the effects of consequential elections in backsliding democracies on democratic attitudes and support for retaliation against former backsliding leaders.

Gabriela Greilinger@gabrielagreilinger.com · last mo.

Excited to be in Atlanta to present ongoing joint work with @benyoel.bsky.social at Georgia Tech's "Problems of Democracy and Possible Solutions (PoDS)" workshop. Looking forward to meeting new colleagues concerned with the future of democracy and to spending two days in a *real* city! 🏙️

I'm thrilled to be giving a talk at next week at the @snfagora.bsky.social Academy Workshop on my job market paper, where I examine the causes and consequences of foreign pressure on democracy and democratic backsliding. The talk is fully online, link to join here! snfagora.jhu.edu/event/academ...

International Pressure and Opposition to Democratic Backsliding

Register to attend by Zoom at https://zoom.us/meeting/register/pS1vAMA7QjGfAZ-xW3maiw. There is no in-person attendance for this event. Authoritarian and backsliding regimes actively seek to delegitimize domestic opposition movements. But it remains unclear […]

snfagora.jhu.edu

I'm very excited to have officially started as a Postdoc at @stanfordcddrl.bsky.social! I'm also grateful for their very kind write-up of my work, as well as that of my cohort members. If you're in the Bay Area this academic year, I'd love to grab coffee. cddrl.fsi.stanford.edu/news/introdu...

Introducing CDDRL's 2026-27 Pre- & Postdoctoral Fellows

Introducing CDDRL's 2026-27 Pre- & Postdoctoral Fellows

cddrl.fsi.stanford.edu

APSA 2026 done! Was a pleasure to serve as a discussant for an awesome panel on measuring democratic erosion and present my JMP on foreign pressure and public support for pro-democracy movements.

Still around at APSA? I'll be presenting my job market paper on the effects of foreign cues on public attitudes toward pro-democracy movements today at 10am at Hynes! The panel features a diverse set of papers on the domestic and international politics of opposition to democratic backsliding.

Ben Yoel@benyoel.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Heading to APSA this week? I'll be presenting my solo work on the effects of foreign pressure on attitudes toward pro-democracy movements on Sunday at 10am, alongside excellent papers by @yukosato.bsky.social, @osamet.bsky.social, @ozlemtuncel.bsky.social, and Pelin Musil on opposition politics.

Good to be in Boston for the first time. APSA Pre-Conference Job Market Workshop ✔️ now onto APSA! If you’re around tomorrow until Sunday, I’d love to grab coffee. I'll also be presenting my job market paper on Sunday at 10am.

It's hard to underscore how unprecedented this move is. We have never seen a mainstream Jewish (Zionist) politician join a predominantly Islamist party. Segalovitz served as a leading figure in the Israeli police and earned a lot of allies in the Arab sector. www.nytimes.com/2026/08/31/w...

Mansour Abbas Recruits Yoav Segalovitz to Join Raam Party in Israeli Election

Mansour Abbas has recruited a Jewish lawmaker best known for reducing the crime rate in Arab cities. Could that be enough to get Mr. Abbas a seat in the next government?

nytimes.com

It's hard to underscore how unprecedented this move is. We have never seen a mainstream Jewish (Zionist) politician join a predominantly Islamist party. Segalovitz served as a leading figure in the Israeli police and earned a lot of allies in the Arab sector. www.nytimes.com/2026/08/31/w...

Mansour Abbas Recruits Yoav Segalovitz to Join Raam Party in Israeli Election

Mansour Abbas has recruited a Jewish lawmaker best known for reducing the crime rate in Arab cities. Could that be enough to get Mr. Abbas a seat in the next government?

nytimes.com

Heading to APSA this week? I'll be presenting my solo work on the effects of foreign pressure on attitudes toward pro-democracy movements on Sunday at 10am, alongside excellent papers by @yukosato.bsky.social, @osamet.bsky.social, @ozlemtuncel.bsky.social, and Pelin Musil on opposition politics.