📖 Published📖 Inference on state occupancy in covariate-driven hidden Markov models🐢 🌏️ 🧪 Find out more:
Inference on state occupancy in covariate-driven hidden Markov models
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Jan-Ole Fischer
@olemole.bsky.social
PhD student in Statistics at Bielefeld University interested in doubly stochastic processes and their application to ecology 🦈, sports 🏈 and finance 📈 Website: https://janolefi.github.io GitHub: https://github.com/janolefi
3 Millionen Datenpunkte untersucht. 2.500 Belege gefunden. 13 Monate geprüft. 1 Ergebnis. Die AfD ist verfassungswidrig. Ein zulässiger Verbotsantrag beim Bundesverfassungsgericht hätte wahrscheinlich Erfolg. Das ist das Ergebnis unseres heute veröffentlichten Gutachtens. 🧵
New package on CRAN! {skymodelr} allows you to generate glorious high dynamic range skydomes in #RStats at any place and date/time! Realistic radiance, 0-15000m altitude, stars, planets, and of course, the moon: modeled with the correct phase and brightness! #rayverse GH: github.com/tylermorganw...
I coauthored a preprint on fitting the #Langevin diffusion model to error-prone tracking data 📄😊
arxiv.stat.ME@arxiv-stat-me.bsky.social · 3mo agoFanny Dupont, Brett T. McClintock, Jan-Ole Fischer, Marianne Marcoux, Nigel E. Hussey, Marie Auger-M\'eth\'e Inferring resource selection and utilization distributions from irregular and error-prone animal tracking data https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.12566
new diamond open-access Journal of Statistical Ecology launched 🎉🎉🎉 jse.centre-mersenne.org @fredbarraquand.bsky.social @oaggimenez.bsky.social @marieaugermethe.bsky.social @vianeylb.bsky.social (apologies to any Bsky editors I missed)
Journal of Statistical Ecology Journal of Statistical Ecology
jse.centre-mersenne.org
New preprint 📑 Fast inference in HMMs with latent Gaussian fields (via SPDE approach + RTMB) ⚡️ 🔗 arxiv.org/abs/2603.17469 We modify the forward algorithm to recover a sparse Hessian ➡️ Fast automatic Laplace approximation Case studies: 1) Detecting stellar flares 2) Lion movement w spatial field
webRios is live. #rstats on your iPhone and iPad. I showed native R compilation on #iOS last week. Shipping it is another story (thanks, GPL). This version uses #webR 's #WebAssembly build instead. Different tradeoffs, but this one clears App Review. apps.apple.com/us/app/webri...
We have a new preprint on covariate-driven #HMMs! doi.org/10.48550/arX... @olemole.bsky.social, @rolandlangrock.bsky.social • commonly used hypothetical stationary distribution can be biased⚠️ • we propose 2 approaches allowing unbiased inference • simulations and case study on Galápagos tortoises🐢🗺️
⬛🟦⚪ Two years in the making! In a fantastic collaboration with Miguel from the International Labour Organisation! 🖤💙 The 'bpvars' package for Forecasting with Bayesian Panel Vector Autoregressions is out on CRAN! And it's spectacular! cran.r-project.org/package=bpvars #bpvars #bsvars.org #rstats
Our paper on #HMMs with periodically ⏰ varying transition probabilities is published! 🎉 @carlinafeldmann.bsky.social, Sina Mews, @rmichels.bsky.social @rolandlangrock.bsky.social doi.org/10.1214/25-AOAS2107 We derive the periodically #stationary distribution and the implied dwell-time distribution
%notin% is coming to Base R! Heck to the yes. We are truly blessed on this day, thank you R Core. 🤩 #rstats
Day 2: devtools - Essential Development Workflow 🔧 The devtools package streamlines your package development workflow with key functions! ⚡ 💡 Pro Tip: Use Ctrl/Cmd + Shift + L in RStudio to quickly run load_all(). 📚 Resources: devtools.r-lib.org #RPackageDev #RStats #devtools #RPackageAdvent2025
Tools to Make Developing R Packages Easier
Collection of package development tools.
devtools.r-lib.org
We have a preprint about modelling three-dimensional movement tracks, led by @njklappstein.bsky.social. The model takes the form of a step selection function and, just like in 2D, it can include directional persistence, attraction to targets, and habitat selection. doi.org/10.1101/2025...
moveHMM version 1.0 turns 10 today 🎉 Such a fun 10 years; exchanging with folks who use the package (and its extensions) has been one of the best parts of my job!
Our review paper on latent Markov models is now published in Statistical Modelling! 🎉 @rolandlangrock.bsky.social @SinaMews. We discuss choosing the right time and space formulation and provide the R package 📦 LaMa for fast ⚡and flexible estimation. 📄 Paper: journals.sagepub.com/eprint/UETXX...
sagepub.com
My paper is out! 🎉 I explore hidden semi-Markov models with covariate-dependent state dwell-time distributions — because sometimes Markov just isn’t enough. Case study: Arctic muskox movement! 🦬📊 🔗 www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti... #stats #TimeSeries #HSMM #StatisticalEcology #rstats
Hidden semi-Markov models with inhomogeneous state dwell-time distributions
The well-established methodology for the estimation of hidden semi-Markov models (HSMMs) as hidden Markov models (HMMs) with extended state spaces is …
sciencedirect.com
Rdatasets is a collection of 2300 free and documented datasets in CSV format. It's a great resource for teaching and exploration! The new `get_dataset()` function from the {marginaleffects} 📦 allows you to search and load them directly in #Rstats. vincentarelbundock.github.io/Rdatasets/ar...
happy first birthday to Bluesky, and what a year it's been! with every day, the need for an open network that puts people first becomes increasingly clear. we're glad to be building this with you. after all, the heart of a social network is the people.
The world is on 🔥 -- and here's my first publication in an astronomy journal: iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3... We combine Gaussian processes + hidden Markov models to efficiently detect stellar flares in one modelling step. 🧪
Could watch this animation all day 😍 Did you know that you can create GIFs with gganimate()? They can even be embedded in a latex PDF file and played via Adobe Acorbat Reader 💥 #ggplot #gganimate #datavisualisation #statisticalmodelling #finance #economics #quants
2024 @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social #climate data out today: 📈 2024 - first year more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial; for ERA5 it was 1.6ºC 🌡️ the past 10 years were the 10 warmest years on record 📈 2024 was warmest year for all continental regions, except Antarctica and Australasia 🌍🌡️🧪⚒️🌊
In this year‘s NFL Big Data Bowl 🏈 submission, @rmichels.bsky.social, Robert Bajons, and I employ hidden Markov models to uncover 🔎guarding assignments and use this additional information to improve the prediction of defensive strategies. 📊 #bigdatabowl #rstats
Big Data Bowl submissions are due tomorrow 🚨🚨 The deadline is 11:59 PM UTC, which is 6:59 PM EST 🚨🚨 #BigDataBowl
The {matrixStats} #RStats 📦 “provides highly optimized functions for computing common summaries over rows and columns of matrices, e.g. rowQuantiles(). There are also functions that operate on vectors.” By @henrikbengtsson.bsky.social github.com/HenrikBengts...
![Example
With a matrix
> x <- matrix(rnorm(20 * 500), nrow = 20, ncol = 500)
it is many times faster to calculate medians column by column using
> mu <- matrixStats::colMedians(x)
than using
> mu <- apply(x, MARGIN = 2, FUN = median)
Moreover, if performing calculations on a subset of rows and/or columns, using
> mu <- colMedians(x, rows = 33:158, cols = 1001:3000)
is much faster and more memory efficient than
> mu <- apply(x[33:158, 1001:3000], MARGIN = 2, FUN = median)](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z4cp3uwgxiioi7uaxn2boq47/bafkreia5r4zydpx435mcoo4gbd2halv3uhaqw4pywcpwkwtrjla4tyjvoq)
I crunch a lot of numbers to ultimately tell people „yeah this thing may or may not happen idk“.
Thomas Lumley@tslumley.bsky.social · 2y agoPeople tell me they know which number is bigger and I explain why they're wrong