Who donates their data to research? We don’t know much yet about this across platforms, or about non-donors, or what this means for our subsequent analyses. @ernesto-deleon.com gives the answers, based on @algosoc.org data #ica26 With @lindabomm.bsky.social @theoaraujo.bsky.social @favstats.eu &🙋

This paper by @ernesto-deleon.com @lindabomm.bsky.social @favstats.eu @theoaraujo.bsky.social @claesdevreese.bsky.social is a brilliant analysis of sample bias in data donation studies, with practical advice for controlling and accounting for bias. Preprint available here: osf.io/bynfg/files/...

Nieuwe blog: Jesse Frederik gaat te kort door de bocht: Waarom complexe maatschappelijke onvrede niet in één verklaring past https://stukroodvlees.nl/?p=19162

Stevige reactie van @catherinedevries.bsky.social op het artikel in @decorrespondent.nl. stukroodvlees.nl/jesse-freder... Over methodologie, het gebruik van AI, een merkwaardig journalistiek proces, en de totaal losgezongen stropop die Frederik neerzet van politicologisch onderzoek.

Jesse Frederik gaat te kort door de bocht: Waarom complexe maatschappelijke onvrede niet in één verklaring past - StukRoodVlees

Vorige week verscheen op De Correspondent een stuk waarin Jesse Frederik mijn boek De Symfonie van Onvrede aangreep voor een polemiek over de oorzaken van het succes van radicaal-rechts en de manier w...

stukroodvlees.nl

Politics Doesn’t Define How Most People See Themselves I’ve written a blog post just published by The Inquisitive Mind. Link: www.in-mind.org/blog/post/po... Very brief summary in the thread.

Excitement, tension, bingo and great insights from my fellow PolComm colleagues - think that describes our election event in CREA quite well. Great way to count down to the exitpolls! @markboukes.bsky.social @favstats.eu @ulrikeklinger.bsky.social @lindabomm.bsky.social @corinnaoschatz.bsky.social

New modeling paper that examines the effect of mandating preregistration, finds that "universally mandatory preregistration, compared to mere incentivization, promotes a more balanced coexistence of research methodologies" contingent upon thhe incentive system. link.springer.com/article/10.1...

Preregistration is not a ceiling: but it can become one - Synthese

Preregistration is designed as a solution to questionable research practices, safeguarding the epistemic integrity of scientific work. Despite its benefits, concerns remain that it might inadvertently...

link.springer.com

Just so we're clear was it not a crisis when it was the other way around?

The Times and Sunday Times@thetimes.com · last yr.

Young women are now consistently earning more than their male counterparts for the first time, according to a report that warns of a social “crisis” gripping young men

Und als wäre es nicht schlimm genug, dass eine rechtsextreme Partei 20,8 % der Zweitstimmen und 15 % der Wahlkreise gewinnt, verzerrt diese Karte den Anteil der von der AfD gewonnenen Wahlkreise deutlich. 15 % der Wahlkreise stehen 30 % der Fläche gegenüber - also das Doppelte.

Land does not vote. Eine Karte wie zu Beginn der Animation ist seit der Bundestagswahl oft zu sehen gewesen. Sie zeigt die Parteizugehörigkeit der Wahlkreissieger nach Erststimmen. Wir sehen: ziemlich viel AfD-Blau. 🧵 #Bundestagswahl 📊

With many lazy takes on the Linke around, this is a very good comparison. The new Linke is much more like a progressive left party than traditional populist left. I would add to the list an emphasis on keeping movement ties rather than relying primarily on professionalized party infrastructure.

Reto Mitteregger@indubioproreto.bsky.social · last yr.

The parallels to the Swiss social democrats in 2023 are evident: 1) Appeals to young (female) voters with a credible progressive agenda and heavy emphasis on housing 2) Strong results in urban centers 3) Rather young co-leadership 4) Targeted campaigning with clear appeals

The 'feeling' that X under Musk is a different place than before is quantified in this new study titled 'Substantial Hate' 1️⃣ hate speech up to 50% higher; 2️⃣ hate speech increase persistent; 3️⃣ no reduction in inauthentic accounts #commsky @polcomm.bsky.social journals.plos.org/plosone/arti...

X under Musk’s leadership: Substantial hate and no reduction in inauthentic activity

Numerous studies have reported an increase in hate speech on X (formerly Twitter) in the months immediately following Elon Musk’s acquisition of the platform on October 27th, 2022; relatedly, despite ...

journals.plos.org

What drives candidates' use of negative campaigning? We suggest and empirically test a comprehensive theoretical model in 12 German state elections. Now out in EPSR 👇

Jürgen Maier@maierjuergen.bsky.social · last yr.

New publication with @corinnaoschatz.bsky.social , @sebstier.bsky.social, Mona Dian and @msaeltzer.bsky.social. We explain why our understanding of negative campaigning as rational behavior is too narrow. We show that other mechanisms also influence attack behavior. doi.org/10.1017/S175...

Now available Open Access: 📰 Does (immigration) framing influence public opinion? 🧵 www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

The Impact of Media Framing in Complex Information Environments

To what extent do news frames influence public opinion? While a large body of experimental research suggests sizable effects, it is unclear how these findings translate to authentically complex inf...

tandfonline.com

I am very late to this thread, but want to note this old paper from Andrew Gelman in which he explains a good reason to use LaTeX (like to PDF www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/rese...)

In Germany 62% of voters named the protection of democracy and the fight against right wing extremism as the most important problem. There is hope people!

abgeordnetenwatch@abgeordnetenwatch.de · last yr.

Forsa hat nach den wichtigsten Wahlkampfthemen gefragt. Ergebnis: 1. Schutz der Demokratie/ Bekämpfung des Rechtsextremismus (62 %) 2. Wirtschaftliche Entwicklung (55 %) 3. Kriminalität/innere Sicherheit (49 %) 4. Äußere Sicherheit (44 %) 5. Zuwanderung/Geflüchtete (36 %) (Forsa, 30./31.1.25)

#Etmaal25 in the books! Was very happy to present and get input on our first insights on how citizens cope with societal threats. Already looking forward to next year!

Does loneliness correlate with support for the populist radical right? In the Netherlands, yes-lonelier individuals were more likely to support the PRR across 15 years of data (2008-2023), with effect sizes comparable to health correlates of loneliness. (1/9) www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Loneliness is positively associated with populist radical right support

The mental and physical health consequences of loneliness are well documented. However, loneliness's socio-political ramifications have been largely u…

sciencedirect.com

Why do voters often not mind negative or uncivil campaigns—is it for a lack of better electoral alternatives? 🧵 In my PhD study “The Fleeting Allure of Dark Campaigns” (w/ @lindabos.bsky.social & @alessandronai.bsky.social) we test this idea: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.... #polcom #commsky

The Fleeting Allure of Dark Campaigns: Backlash from Negative and Uncivil Campaigning in the Presence of (Better) Alternatives

More aggressive campaigning styles focusing on criticizing opponents (negativity) or using inappropriate language to vilify opponents (incivility) tend to be disliked by voters, and remain thus ris...

tandfonline.com

Kiezers vinden immigratie ongeveer net zo belangrijk als energiekosten en klimaat. Ze zijn er alleen minder bezorgd over en ervaren immigratie als minder bedreigend dan energiekosten en klimaat. - @bnbakker.bsky.social, @gijsschumacher.bsky.social en ik op Stuk Rood Vlees. shorturl.at/dKRXZ

Immigratie: belangrijk, maar minder bedreigend en zorgwekkend dan andere issues - StukRoodVlees

Een van de meest polariserende en belangrijke onderwerpen in de Nederlandse politiek is immigratie. Rutte IV viel erover. Menig debat gaat erover. En veel politici praten erover. Kiezers geven ook vaa...

shorturl.at