New paper out now 🥳 When psychologists discuss generalisability, they often refer to vague notions of representativeness. We provide an accessible intro to the total survey error framework as a tool to reason about this more rigorously. w @taymalsalti.bsky.social @ruben.the100.ci >
Jakob Kasper
@jakobkas.bsky.social
PhD candidate @ippad_eu, @UvA_Amsterdam | Formerly MSc Psychology @Uniheidelberg | jakobkasper.com
One week left to apply for this PhD position in my project on citizens’ role in democracy ⬇️⬇️
🚨🚨 Job: Please share 🙌 - what? PhD position in my DFG-funded project on how citizens understand their role in democracy. - when? Application deadline Jul 1, job start Sept 1 or soon thereafter - how? www.uni-hamburg.de/en/stellenan...
Very belatedly sharing this because the last months were busy: The limits of appraisal theory for political emotions is out in Political Psychology! @gijsschumacher.bsky.social, @mrooduijn.bsky.social and I ask whether appraisal theories of emotion work the same way in politics as in everyday life.
The limits of appraisal theory for political emotions: Evidence from two U.S. surveys
Emotions, such as anger and anxiety, play a central role in political behavior and are extensively studied by political scientists. However, political science has largely adopted psychological theori...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
‘Polarization’ has become the master concept for diagnosing our current democratic crisis. But this is not polarization. It is the radicalization of the political right. By misdiagnosing it, we risk becoming complicit in the crisis. 🧵 Just out in Perspectives on Politics doi.org/10.1017/S153...
Representativeness and response validity across nine opt-in online samples
Representativeness and response validity across nine opt-in online samples
Nature Human Behaviour, Published online: 22 June 2026; doi:10.1038/s41562-026-02438-zStagnaro et al. compare nine opt-in participant samples on measures of response validity, representativeness and professionalism. They find substantial variation across samples and offer guidance for choosing samples based on the research question.
dlvr.it
New publication out and open access at @poqjournal.bsky.social with the legendary @jaclarner.bsky.social! How does support for the UK monarchy change over the lifespan or differ between cohorts? 🧵 (1/x) doi.org/10.1093/poq/...
Long May They Reign? Age and Cohort Effects on Monarchism in the UK
Abstract. The monarchy is a long-standing British institution that enjoys high visibility across the world. However, there is concern that younger generati
doi.org
Today we launch the new version of The PopuList! The PopuList provides an overview of far-left, far-right and populist parties in 31 European countries from 1989 until 1 May 2026. Explore the new website here: popu-list.org
Home - The PopuList
The PopuList Interactive Version 4.0 Static Version 4.0 CSV Version 4.0 What is the PopuList? The PopuList offers researchers, journalists, […]
popu-list.org
🎓 This Friday (June 26), we will wrap up the academic year! We're delighted to welcome Ili Ma in the #HotPoliticsLab, who will give a talk on social media and social connectedness among adolescents. 📍 Location: Common Room (REC-B9.22) 💻 Or join us online 👉 teams.microsoft.com/dl/launcher/...
📢 I’m hiring 2 three-year postdocs at Dept of Political Science, @au.dk! Come work with me on The Politics of Shaming and Shamelessness — a new project on elite rhetoric, emotions, norms, hostility and political violence. Deadline: 31 August 2026 Start: Dec 2026–Feb 2027 Please share widely! 🙏
2 three-year postdocs in political communication and political psychology at Aarhus University - Vacancy at Aarhus University
Vacancy at Department of Political Science, Aarhus University
international.au.dk
What can surveys miss when respondents choose the same answer option? In this pre-print, we argue that public opinion research needs not only to know where respondents stand, but how they think. AI Conversational Interviewing is one way to make that observable at scale
A lot of people are rightfully dunking on Rainn Wilson for being miscalibrated about political correctness HOWEVER, his impulses are quite common. Most people overestimate what is likely to get them canceled. Check out this new paper with @jakobkas.bsky.social : bsky.app/profile/jako...
Rainn Wilson is calling out a 'bias in the media' toward 'liberal policies' for his belief that 'The Office' could not be made today, saying it would be 'too hard to be as politically incorrect as the show was.'
Cancel culture has taken over social media... or has it? In a new paper, Randy T. Lee, Jabin Binnendyk, @gordpennycook.bsky.social, Ovul Sezer, and I found that people overestimate support for "cancellation": doi.org/10.31234/osf...
All I will say is that today's results are the very predictable outcome of Labour's strategic decisions. Most of them without any pressure to do so. This is true for both the big losses to the Greens and the normalization and legitimation of Reform.
Like many other European social democratic parties, Labour is moving right on immigration, certainly driven by the recent success of Reform. We have researched this question for years now. There is an abundance of evidence of why this isn't a good strategy. A thread summarizing some of our research
Like many other European social democratic parties, Labour is moving right on immigration, certainly driven by the recent success of Reform. We have researched this question for years now. There is an abundance of evidence of why this isn't a good strategy. A thread summarizing some of our research
The dilemma of balancing freedom of expression against limiting the spread of misinformation defines speech governance in today's information ecosystems. In our new preprint, we argue that speech governance may be a new cleavage of ideological polarization osf.io/preprints/ps... 1/
OSF
osf.io
ICE is everywhere. In 2022, ICE made arrests in 30% of counties. In 2025, ICE made arrests in 62% of counties. We ask: Do ICE arrests spark political action? Theory and prior evidence suggest it should. We find that ICE activity mostly does not mobilize citizens.
🚨 Western democracies are often described as polarized. @katharinalawall.bsky.social, @mtsakiris.bsky.social + I study how polarization actually feels. Now published in @ejprjournal.bsky.social, we asked citizens in 5 European countries to report their emotions ⬇️ www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Does far-right legislative representation change the descriptive make-up of candidate lists among mainstream parties? Using a RDD with registry data from Sweden, this paper led by @grahn.bsky.social provides an answer doi.org/10.1017/psrm...
Does far-right legislative entry affect minority candidate diversity? | Political Science Research and Methods | Cambridge Core
Does far-right legislative entry affect minority candidate diversity?
doi.org
1/7 When does our disagreement with politicians start? 🤨 In our new preprint with @bnbakker.bsky.social, @gijsschumacher.bsky.social & Joe Bathelt, we find that incongruence may be rooted in preconscious perception, emerging at 150ms, well before conscious evaluation: osf.io/preprints/ps...
OSF
osf.io
Can reasoned arguments shift moral behavior? In a new preprint, @eschwitz.bsky.social, Jason Nemirow, @fierycushman.bsky.social and I explore this question in the context of charitable donation. (1/10)
This Friday (10.04), there's another Graduate Friday at the #HotPoliticsLab! @jakobkas.bsky.social will give a talk on attitudes towards voting age, and Gustavo Couto de Jesus on brain responses to political messaging. 📍 Location: REC-B9.22 💻 Or online 👉 teams.microsoft.com/dl/launcher/...
🔔 𝗡𝗲𝘄 𝗯𝗹𝗼𝗴 𝗽𝗼𝘀𝘁: 𝗣𝗼𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗼𝗹𝗼𝗴𝘆 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝘁𝘆 🔔 How important is our political view for how we define ourselves? In his blog post, @jakobkas.bsky.social presents that politics is a minor factor in shaping our identity, and demonstrates how this knowledge could help bridge political divides.
Conditionally accepted at the APSR (w/ @scottclifford.bsky.social & @patrickpliu.bsky.social): Why does political information so often change beliefs but NOT attitudes? We highlight the role of belief relevance, or the extent to which beliefs bear on attitudes.
Check out this research lead by Olivia Fischer and @renatofrey.mstdn.science.ap.brid.gy with cool insights into risky choices people face in real life!
Which risky choices should (and do) we study as behavioral scientists? In two related articles, we recently examined the current "ecology of risk" (i.e., laypersons' reports on what risky choices they face in real life) and how these choices differ from those […] [Original post on mstdn.science]
“Not all polarization is equivalent nor undesirable” New preprint by Felipe Vilanova and @flavioazevedo.bsky.social: osf.io/preprints/ps...
🚨New WP: Can an AI voter guide (grounded in information from a nonpartisan, fact-checked source) help voters’ decision making? 🚨 We built and evaluated an LLM-based chatbot that provided voting info in CA & TX (N=2,474) right before the 2024 election. 🧵👇
🚀 dashboardr is out! An #rstats package for building interactive dashboards with tidyverse-style syntax. Launched with a fun hackathon at @ascor.bsky.social (🍕 included). 📦: favstats.github.io/dashboardr/ Big thanks to the dashboardr team, Digicomlab, and @vivifabrien.bsky.social for the logo 🎨
Politics Doesn’t Define How Most People See Themselves I’ve written a blog post just published by The Inquisitive Mind. Link: www.in-mind.org/blog/post/po... Very brief summary in the thread.
Do negative encounters with immigrants activate personality effects in PRR support? @cvalebeek.bsky.social, Daniel Komáromy, @delaneypeterson.bsky.social & @mrooduijn.bsky.social find it's not generally the case but initial exposure & out-group framing may matter: buff.ly/D5C50zO (OPEN ACCESS)
🌍 New megastudy on what motivates people to engage in climate advocacy 🥳 We tested 17 theory-driven behavior change interventions to increase public, political, and financial #climate advocacy in the United States (N = 31,324). academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/ar...
A megastudy of behavioral interventions to catalyze public, political, and financial climate advocacy
Abstract. Addressing climate change depends on large-scale system changes, which require public advocacy. Here, we identified and tested 17 expert-crowdsou
academic.oup.com