When I was a kid, I thought mac'n'cheese was Scottish. An honest mistake. My version: Béchamel base, lots of grated cheese, some pasta with a hole, a splash of paprika to make it dandy.
Richard McElreath 🐈⬛
@rmcelreath.bsky.social
Anthropologist - Bayesian modeling - science reform - cat and cooking content too - Director @ MPI for evolutionary anthropology https://www.eva.mpg.de/ecology/staff/richard-mcelreath/
Sentimental tribute to the many authors who helped me write my new book and also build my new side table. Also a great reading list for those curious about how cultural beliefs about people (gender, race, orientation, fat, parenting neurodiversity) influence science open.substack.com/pub/cailinoc...
Resting my teacup on the shoulders of giants
A tribute to the works in my book stack cum side table, and a great reading list for those interested in background beliefs about gender, race, fat, parenting, sexual orientation, and so on in science
open.substack.com
I had this idea to do a series of short lessons on learning probabilistic programming (with Stan etc), based on the Zen "Ten Bulls": 1 search 2 discovery 3 perception 4 capture 5 taming 6 riding 7 goal forgotten 8 self forgotten 9 back to the start 10 teaching. Would take some work to develop though
Robin Blythe@rbly.bsky.social · 4d agoMe, once a month #statsky #rstats
imma take this rare Patti Smith in the news to promote her 2010 memoire "Just Kids" about her life with Robert Mapplethorpe. It's in turns incredibly romantic, tragic, and fulfilling. Read it!
Christopher Hale@christopherjhale.bsky.social · 5d agoThe godmother of punk Patti Smith met Pope Leo XIV this morning.
mütend = müde & wütend. Und nein, ich hab keine Lust zu konkretisieren. Grund genug ist da, sucht Euch was aus.
I don't care what the haters say, tikz is nice, can have a tiny fish for a treat
![code to generate the tikz plot:
\begin{tikzpicture}
\begin{axis}[axis lines = left, xlabel = $T$, ylabel = $f$,
width=7cm, height=4cm,
tick label style={font=\tiny},
label style={font=\small} ]
\addplot[domain=-3:27.5, red, thick, samples=70]
{exp( (x-25)/(0.5*(30-25)) )*( 1 - (x-25)/(0.5*(30-25)) )};
\node at (100,500) {\includegraphics[width=1.25cm]{fish.jpg}};
\end{axis}
\end{tikzpicture}](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:ta2whs6wjtpljvpqgs5leu36/bafkreigw4x5f2cfs5lm2g5koapngbpo7dphniz5bpyzbwzbymyn7b5ndmq)
For examples of the priorsense package in use, see e.g. chapter 17 case study ("sleep study") from the Bayesian Workflow website: avehtari.github.io/Bayesian-Wor...
Aki Vehtari@avehtari.bsky.social · last wk.priorsense R package has now JOSS paper "priorsense: Efficient prior and likelihood sensitivity checks for Bayesian models in R" you can cite, too doi.org/10.21105/jos... with Noa Kallioinen, Topi Paananen, and @paulbuerkner.com priorsense achieved also a gold badge from @ropensci.org review!
priorsense R package has now JOSS paper "priorsense: Efficient prior and likelihood sensitivity checks for Bayesian models in R" you can cite, too doi.org/10.21105/jos... with Noa Kallioinen, Topi Paananen, and @paulbuerkner.com priorsense achieved also a gold badge from @ropensci.org review!
priorsense: Efficient prior and likelihood sensitivity checks for Bayesian models in R
Kallioinen et al., (2026). priorsense: Efficient prior and likelihood sensitivity checks for Bayesian models in R. Journal of Open Source Software, 11(123), 11036, https://doi.org/10.21105/joss.11036
doi.org
I read Neuromancer in the 1980s. So I've forgotten some of the plot. But I remember it as a love story between two AIs and the plucky humans who help bring them together. I hope the forthcoming TV adaptation is true to the romance of the original.
I see now we missed an opportunity by not entitling our book "Bayesian Odyssey" instead of "Bayesian Workflow". The priors are polytropic! Still all the case studies are online avehtari.github.io/Bayesian-Wor... (and python translations arviz-devs.github.io/bayesian-wor...) for your adventure
I know we are going to get birds bc everyone loves the birds. I wonder though why these birds? None are particularly European. Which is maybe the point? I couldn't find anything online explaining how these species were chosen. (I do not like the reverse design with EU gov buildings. Puke.)
I think a lot of us underestimated how good solar would get. Modern arrays convert 20% of sunlight to electricity. Plants struggle to achieve 2% with photosynthesis. Suck it, plants.
Nicolas Fulghum@nicolasfulghum.bsky.social · 2w agoSolar produced a record 35.5% of Germany's electricity in June ☀️ That was more than all fossil fuels combined: Solar: 35.5% Fossil: 30.7% Other: 33.8% 10 years ago, solar reached a share of 11.6% in June, and has since tripled.
much respect for people doing this kind of work. it’s not glamorous, but it is worthwhile
AEA Data Editor@aeadata.bsky.social · 2w agoRecent case, re-run of the authors' code failed on a first-stage regression, blocked code from completing. Hard to initially diagnose, because "qui do regression_55.do" shows no output... 🤦Back and forth with authors, they provide evidence that it works on their system. We send MWE to Stata support👇
oh nice to see this thread resurrected. dual (and more) life cycle organisms are so common. those of us who study vertebrates are studying some of the most boring animals ever to evolve on this earth
Rebecca R Helm@rebeccarhelm.bsky.social · last yr.I want to tell you a story, and it begins with this VERY WEIRD animal: Meet Thetys vagina... [a thread 🧵] 📸 m_patton bit.ly/2Mgw8Sf 🌿🧪🦑🐙🌊
Mischka cat is in fact the size of a small dog and insists on flopping on my lap. He has not read the Odyssey
Nice little bayes puzzle from Christian Robert‘s blog xianblog.wordpress.com/2026/07/22/b...
broken random generators
Nothing exciting or catastrophic here! Just a Friday afternoon puzzle entry on the successor to The Riddler (which I had not visited for a long while)… The first riddle reads as follows: A ra…
xianblog.wordpress.com
When I am writing, I end up looking up lots of weird details. Today, I looked up who is responsible for the statistical independence symbol: Finnish mathematician Gustav Elfving in 1950s. He used a double orthogonal ⊥⊥, bc independence is stronger than orthogonality. Dawid's 1979 paper squished it.
After a couple of months hiatus, a new blog post on directly parameterizing structural zeros in correlation matrices. spinkney.github.io/posts/post-1...
Structural Zeros in Correlation Matrices: A Twelve-Parameterization Bake-Off – Pinkney’s Sufficient Stats
spinkney.github.io
EXCELLENT: The Netherlands new OA policy seems to be well thought through obc.copim.pub/when-scaling... Policy explicitly recommends redirection & reallocation of funds from existing ‘big deal’ budgets towards community-driven alternatives, incl university-led diamond OA & Netherlands Uni Presses
When 'scaling small' becomes national policy
The Netherlands' new open access strategy echoes the principles the Open Book Collective was built on - 'scaling small' and community-led publishing
obc.copim.pub
I spontaneously wrote the sentence "The history of causal inference mirrors the history of the laser" so now I am reading the history of lasers. Just to make sure I haven't hallucinated anything
New paper out now 🥳 When psychologists discuss generalisability, they often refer to vague notions of representativeness. We provide an accessible intro to the total survey error framework as a tool to reason about this more rigorously. w @taymalsalti.bsky.social @ruben.the100.ci >
This looks useful. A typical meta-analysis in ecology mixes experiments with observational studies, mixes coefficients with different controls and therefore different causal meanings. I would not normally say "hey the folks in medicine are doing it right, imitate them" but in this case maybe
Alfredo Sánchez-Tójar@asanchez-tojar.bsky.social · 3w agoAre our ecological conclusions built on shaky foundations? Our latest paper in @methodsinecoevol.bsky.social highlights that Risk of Bias (RoB) assessment, crucial for ensuring the internal validity of research, is almost never used in #systematicreviews in eco & evo 📉 🔗 doi.org/10.1111/2041...
Now that the Bayesian Workflow book is physically in the world, I am spending more time again on 3rd edition of Stat Rethinking. Lots of workflow stuff to weave into it. (Yeah I am still just using latex, you quarto kids get off my lawn.)
Osvaldo is translating the Bayesian Workflow book's case studies to Python, very useful in case you are snake person arviz-devs.github.io/bayesian-wor...
Osvaldo Martin@aloctavodia.bsky.social · 3w agoLook what was waiting on my desk this morning! It's so great to finally see #BayesianWorkflow in print.
If Haaland wanted a raccoon, he should have come to Leipzig. We have I think 1.2 million of them.
Stoked to read this new @statmodeling.bsky.social, @rmcelreath.bsky.social and every other Bayesian book. I’ve gotta say, a chapter 4 skim has got me me hooked.
It’s here! Most anticipated new book release of the year. @statmodeling.bsky.social @avehtari.bsky.social @rmcelreath.bsky.social @paulbuerkner.com
