Zia Yusuf v short speech on asylum Sole point: past gvts spent £32 billion on asylum. Inference: Reform will spend nothing, by abolishing asylum. Yet Reform policy is third country deals to take any asylum seekers. If possible (???), very very expensive! www.reformparty.uk/news/britain...

Britain is full | Reform UK

Reform UK is Britain's fastest growing political party. Join us to fix broken Britain with common sense policies on immigration, the economy, the NHS and more.

reformparty.uk

Goodwin and Dan Hodges on asylum. Goodwin says Reform will have 3rd country deals (to remove asylum seekers forever) because EU countries are looking into offshore processing. Goodwin says key is to leave the ECHR (while claiming EU countries in ECHR will have such deals too) x.com/GBNEWS/statu...

Trump says that he has agreed a ceasefire on behalf of Ukraine and Russia - albeit without their agreement to it.

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · 2h ago

Q: You said Russia and Ukraine agreed to a ceasefire, but both sides said they have not agreed to that TRUMP: Well they agreed, you know why? Because I said 'you agree.' That's why.

A point well-made about a basic fallacy. Yet London has the strongest educational outcomes + some economic opportunity advantages,, so a par population score for NEETs may reveal something interesting too.

Stephen Bush@stephenkb.bsky.social · 6h ago

"London has the largest number of Neets, an estimated 117,100, or one in six of all Neets in England, said the report" - you'll never guess what the other thing that London has one in six of all the things in England is.

Charlie Downes, Campaigns Director of Lowe's Restore Britain, sees Reform's fatal flaw as accepting ethnic minorities as British "You have to recognise that millions of legal immigrants must go too, including passport holders. Otherwise just arguing for demographic replacement at a slower speed"

Bridget Phillipson MP, Chair of the Labour Party calls the 'lethal force' proposal of Jenrick "disgusting and illegal". "Our armed forces are not going to start opening fire on unarmed civilians, and Reform are dragging their own reputations and credibility into the gutter by suggesting it"

Robert Jenrick for Reform says that Royal Marines using "lethal force" on small boats could end it in days. "Deploy the Royal Marines into the Channel. If they need to use lethal force then they'll be able to do so. I think the problem would come to an end within a matter of days."

Reform policy is "protect the status of Ukranians and Hong Kongers" (today - ostensibly: ie only have to leave when safe! This = u-turn on "no exemptions for Ukranians/Hong Kongers" (Sept) Reform policy is also (still) Hong Kongers should never get permanent settlement in UK: abolish ILR totally

This reminds of what many studies are finding: people say they don’t want a policy which lets a range of immigrants remain, but if you ask people if they support deporting them to harm, they say “no.” It is one thing to be anti-immigrant; another to support harming the immigrants one does not want.

Sunder Katwala (sundersays)@sundersays.bsky.social · 9h ago

Reform have pledged to return 90,000 asylum seekers in the appeal system immediately to those countries - by abolishing the asylum system - but have now said not where there are risks to torture, death or persecution, which is what the asylum system assseses, if it is not abolished.

Spending my sabbatical deleting every 'just hoping that Reform will implode is not a strategy' take about the Tories from the Internet.

Reform have pledged to return 90,000 asylum seekers in the appeal system immediately to those countries - by abolishing the asylum system - but have now said not where there are risks to torture, death or persecution, which is what the asylum system assseses, if it is not abolished.

Jon Featonby@jonfeatonby.bsky.social · 9h ago

So from @andrewsparrowgdn.bsky.social's life blog, Zia Yusuf has said that "We’re not going to be sending people back to be tortured or killed." Which presumably needs a process for working out if that's going to happen to someone or not. Which starts to sound a bit like an asylum process?

The BBC is making a lot of cuts (including to some things only the BBC would do or could do). The BBC could cut some things where it is simply replicating what private media businesses will do - as it wants a share of audience. This issue could be covered seriously by its news channels.

Burnham to tell Commons closer UK-EU links could be good for growth & for controlling asylum

Simon Usherwood@simonusherwood.bsky.social · 18h ago

And off we go www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

Farage announces that Reform would stop protecting refugees for an entire parliamentary term: www.bbc.co.uk/news/article... Our @sundersays.bsky.social below looks at the data on how this lack of compassion leaves most of the UK public cold

Reform would suspend asylum system for parliamentary term if in government

All asylum applications would be rejected and existing ones voided, with all claimants marked for deportation.

bbc.co.uk

Sunder Katwala (sundersays)@sundersays.bsky.social · yesterday

There is 73% support in Britain for the principle of refugee protection - including in the UK - while 20% are opposed to this. The peak of support was 2022 at 80% (largely because the images from Ukraine had more impact than images from the Channel that year, though boats + migration were high)

There is 73% support in Britain for the principle of refugee protection - including in the UK - while 20% are opposed to this. The peak of support was 2022 at 80% (largely because the images from Ukraine had more impact than images from the Channel that year, though boats + migration were high)

There is 73% support in Britain for the principle of refugee protection - including in the UK - while 20% are opposed to this. The peak of support was 2022 at 80% (largely because the images from Ukraine had more impact than images from the Channel that year, though boats + migration were high)

Standards commissioner reporting tomorrow. I'm sure it's coincidental

Sunder Katwala (sundersays)@sundersays.bsky.social · yesterday

Reform and Restore continue to compete in an auction to abolish asylum + make unethical and impossible pledges about the scale of deportations, where both intend to target asylum seekers + refugees with status + non-Europeans with permanent status + migrants on visas on an ugly + impossible scale

Reform and Restore continue to compete in an auction to abolish asylum + make unethical and impossible pledges about the scale of deportations, where both intend to target asylum seekers + refugees with status + non-Europeans with permanent status + migrants on visas on an ugly + impossible scale

Liverpool's defeat leaves Everton & Brentford as the last two of the 134 league clubs in England & Scotland to remain undefeated in competitive football during the Burnham premiership

Sunder Katwala (sundersays)@sundersays.bsky.social · yesterday

After a long international break, and a draw at Hull City, Everton remain undefeated in competitive football since Andy Burnham became the Evertonian Prime Minister on 20th July 2026. (So are Liverpool and Brentford still undefeated under Burnham)

Yes. I still think a centrist-ish candidate in the second round will beat her, just, but it’s very close. And will require some coordination for that candidate to make the second round. Financial markets pressure will be an interesting factor.

This is right. No public declarations expressing support for Davey / opposing no-confidence vote since Saturday night with current standing as 18/69 (with Davey and rebel Charlie Maynard excluded) For the record, the only public comment Maynard has issued since resigning is as follows:

Sunder Katwala (sundersays)@sundersays.bsky.social · yesterday

Ed Davey had 18 Faithfuls on the record by Saturday night. I don't know if more have declared since. There are no nore publicly declared rebels either, but nor a decisive majority move to close the question down before Tuesday's parliamentary group meeting www.politics.co.uk/2026/10/full...

The French Parti Socialiste will support MEP Raphael Glucksmann for President after the small Place Publique party leader won 66% in a cross-party online primary vote, open to non-members paying 15 Euros, against PS candidates including Oliver Faure and Segolene Royal www.politico.eu/article/raph...

MEP Glucksmann wins French center-left primary, becoming candidate for presidency

The leader of the tiny Place Publique party strengthened his hand by winning the Socialist primary outright.

politico.eu

Bluesky: the place that looks at this front page and talks about the Kemi story.

Sunder Katwala (sundersays)@sundersays.bsky.social · 2d ago

This seems to be quite a silly front-page splash, since the mounting speculation about the PM calling a snap 2026 election is largely imaginary. (There is rather more chatter about 2027 now) A 2026 election is available at odds of 18/1 from Ladbrokes if you believe it

Lowe hails Restore's Amber Valley 5th place [Kilburn, Denby, Holbrook & Horsley ward] as their best ever % outside Norfolk Green: 674 (29.5% +4%) Reform UK: 617 (27% new) Tories: 386 (16.9% -15.2) Labour: 364 15.9% - 6.1) Restore: 246 (10.8 new) Previous Ind (14.1%) + LibDem (6.4%) did not run

This seems to be quite a silly front-page splash, since the mounting speculation about the PM calling a snap 2026 election is largely imaginary. (There is rather more chatter about 2027 now) A 2026 election is available at odds of 18/1 from Ladbrokes if you believe it

Who would the Labour government + Labour party (a) prefer + (b) expect to be the main opponent in the next General Election? - the Conservatives - Reform - unclear, with split claims+perceptions of main alternative PM

Opinium/Observer (7th-9th October fieldwork) has these party standings + leader approval results. 🌹 LAB 29% (-1) ➡️ REF 23% (-2) 🌳 CON 20% (+3) 🌍 GRN 9% (-2) 🔶 LD 9% (n/c) 🌹 Burnham +8 (n/c) 🌳 Badenoch 0 (n/c) 🔶 Davey -6 (n/c) ➡️ Farage -26 (-4) 🌍 Polanski -29 (-7)

Rishi Sunak did not believe in the Rwanda plan as Chancellor - its legality, its efficacy or its cost - though he made a deal with Braverman to pretend he did as PM. His argument for it now fails to put his 3rd option under the scrutiny of the other two www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...

Rishi Sunak: Admit it, Rwanda is the only way to stop the boats

Critics said it was fantasy that we could leave the ECHR and secure our border. The real fantasy is thinking there’s an alternative

thetimes.com

I am also canvassing views on Restore's approach for my column on the politics of racism + remigration within the right. "Will it help or harm Restore Britain - electorally - to have members + activists campaigning for the deportation of Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch?"

Today, Lifeboat Saturday, I’d like to pay tribute to the many brave men and women who volunteer for the #RNLI, risking their lives to save others in grave danger. I’m appalled at the abuse and intimidation faced by RNLI crews in recent weeks. Let’s support and celebrate this incredible charity.