Choice of estimands and estimators affected the interpretation of results for some outcomes in a cluster-randomised trial (RESTORE) due to informative cluster size - Journal of Clinical Epidemiology www.jclinepi.com/article/S089...

*NEW ARTICLE* - delighted to announce that the MEMTAB 2025 abstracts are now published in Diagnostic and Prognostic Research! link.springer.com/article/10.1...

Methods for Evaluating Models, Tests And Biomarkers (MEMTAB): Abstracts from the 7th International Conference, MEMTAB 2025 - Diagnostic and Prognostic Research

Diagnostic and Prognostic Research -

link.springer.com

We are hiring!! Our trials unit, CHaRT, is looking to appoint a Deputy Director (Methodology). The role will provide methodological leadership across CHaRT’s portfolio. A really exciting opportunity for anyone interested in a leadership role in clinical trials!! See: www.abdn.ac.uk/jobs/vacanci...

The curse of underfunded academic research has struck again - my position has been made redundant. Hit me up if you are looking for a passionate and enthusiastic biostatistician.

Next INSPECT-SR training workshop: July 23rd www.trybooking.com/uk/events/la...

Introduction to INSPECT-SR Training Workshop July

An introductory 2-hour online workshop will introduce participants to the INSPECT-SR tool for assessing trustworthiness of randomised controlled...

trybooking.com

NEW VIDEO: "Systematic Reviews of Prognosis Research & Prediction Models" - a broad 20 minute introduction, concluding with some exciting news for the field! youtu.be/CgYvaOG2Ta8

Systematic Reviews of Prognosis Research & Prediction Models

YouTube video by Richard_D_Riley

youtu.be

COURSE: 'Statistical Methods for Risk Prediction & Prognostic Models' - last chance to book for this online course (6th to 9th July 2026) - more details at www.prognosisresearch.com/training-cou...

NEW #openaccess PAPER in Lancet Digital Health “Critical appraisal of fairness metrics for artificial intelligence-based clinical prediction models” www.thelancet.com/journals/lan... #predictiveAI #digitaltech #AI #machinelearning #datascience #fairness #healthequity

There is also a short explainer published in #JAMA 8/8 jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...

The CRT-Estimands Framework for Cluster Randomized Trials

This Viewpoint discusses some specific challenges in defining estimands for cluster randomized trials and illustrates how the CRT-Estimands Framework can be applied to improve the interpretation of tr...

jamanetwork.com

The full text of the extended estimand framework for cluster trials was published in the BMJ led by @brennankahan.bsky.social 7/8 www.bmj.com/content/393/...

These include specifying the population of both clusters and individuals; outlining how intercurrent events will be handled at both levels, how clusters are weighted and whether summaries are marginal or cluster specific 6/8

The cluster trials (cRCT) estimand framework extension outlines what exactly needs to be made explicit in a cluster trial estimand - there are five key things be considered 5/8

In cluster trials, how we deal with the clusters can affect the estimate of the treatment effect, so we also need to be really clear about what exactly we are estimating, in whom and how, otherwise the reported treatment effect may be misinterpreted 4/8

“Intercurrent events” are post-randomisation events (eg discontinuation/switching of treatment etc) and the estimand describes how these events will be handled in the analysis. In cluster trials these can happen at both the cluster and the individual level 3/8

An #estimand is effectively a more precise specification of the research question(s) and how the treatment effect is to be estimated (hence estimand). It also precisely describes how so called “intercurrent events” will be handled in the analysis. 2/8

At the Society of Clinical Trials (#SCT2026) conference last week, one of the topics being discussed was estimands & intercurrent events in cluster trials. Perfect timing for the publication of the new cRCT estimand framework 1/8 #MethodologyMonday #129

🎬 I've just uploaded a new video explaining the premise of our new general sample size framework for prediction model development, and how it embeds and extends previous work youtu.be/eglPq1aTl7k

A general sample size framework for developing or updating a predictive algorithm (prediction model)

YouTube video by Richard_D_Riley

youtu.be

Richard Riley (R²)@richarddriley.bsky.social · 3mo ago

⭐ NEW: "A general sample size framework for developing or updating a predictive algorithm: with application to clinical prediction models" rdcu.be/fjYDm Embeds all previous calculations (eg, pmsampsize) & extends to calculate assurance probabilities for clinical utility & model degradation ...

*** NEW PAPER *** The CRT-Estimands Framework - a consensus based extension of the ICH E9(R1) addendum for cluster randomised trials - now been published in the @bmj.com. -> www.bmj.com/content/393/... + commentary in @jama.com -> jamanetwork.com/journals/jam... @unibirmingham.bsky.social

💬 Viewpoint: The #CRT-Estimands Framework defines five key attributes for cluster randomized trials, clarifying treatment effect and supporting accurate result interpretation for clinical stakeholders. ja.ma/4wG0Vcx

Happy #ClinicalTrials Day Trial design and conduct is no place for novices with best intentions. Patient participants make sacrifices. Medical progress holds its breath. Large sums of public and private money is invested. So get it right, from the start. statsepi.substack.com/p/dealing-wi...

Dealing with

There are no negative trials - just ones we learn from and ones we don't

statsepi.substack.com

Perspectives on statistics in medicine: Annual joint LSHTM/RSS lecture on 16th June, by Prof. Marion Campbell. Further details here: www.lshtm.ac.uk/newsevents/e...

Perspectives on statistics in medicine: Annual joint LSHTM/RSS lecture | LSHTM

Future directions in the evaluation of innovative technologies in healthcare: Technology in healthcare is rapidly advancing. For example, a recent healthcare report suggests that 9 out of 10

lshtm.ac.uk

We are seeking key stakeholders in clinical trials research and related decision-making processes to contribute to guidance development on statistical analysis plans for adaptive and platform trials and on the disclosure of interim information in these trials. See details below 👇🏾👇🏾

My wife’s short film ‘Opening Up’ is now free to watch! A romantic comedy drama starring Tamsin Outhwaite and Gary Beadle, it’s won lots of festival awards and was even selected for the HollyShorts Film Festival in LA. Enjoy 🙏 www.youtube.com/watch?v=OEdy...

Opening Up | Drama Short Film | British Romance

YouTube video by CenterFrame | Filmmakers Community

youtube.com

There’s a very nice commentary on the tension between relevance and reliability. ‘What Makes an Estimand Useful? Guidance on the Choice of Intercurrent Event Strategies’ By @brennankahan.bsky.social Fan Li, Michael Harhay & @suziecro.bsky.social 4/ doi.org/10.1002/sim....

What Makes an Estimand Useful? Guidance on the Choice of Intercurrent Event Strategies

While the use of estimands in randomized trials is increasing, there is little guidance on which intercurrent event strategies should be used. The article by Fleming et al. seeks to address this gap....

doi.org

New commentary in Statistics in Medicine: ‘A Causal Perspective on “Appropriate Implementation of ICH E9(R1) Addendum Strategies” (Comment on Fleming et al.)’ By me, Alex Ocampo, Jesper Madsen, Hege Michiels, Sanne Roels. 1/ doi.org/10.1002/sim....

A Causal Perspective on “Appropriate Implementation of ICH E9(R1) Addendum Strategies” (Comment on Fleming et al.)

This commentary offers perspectives on delivering “rigorous causal inference on meaningful estimands” that differ from the opinions recently shared by Fleming et al. We (1) depict a more robust pathw...

doi.org

For anyone who is doing statistical simulation work, I honestly cannot recommend @timpmorris.bsky.social's elegant 2019 manuscript on ADEMP framework enough. Outlining a structured approach to planning sim studies, w/in-depth examples+how to display Monte Carlo SEs. #statssky#statistics #academicsky

✨ New open-access book✨ I’ve seen how powerful prediction models can be, but also how often they fall short. We wrote a book, covering not just development, but also when models are needed, and how to ensure real-world impact. www.maastrichtuniversitypress.nl/cpm

%%title%% %%sep%% Maastricht University Press

Open Access book by Luc Smits, Sander van Kuijk, and Laure Wynants: This open-access textbook offers a practical and comprehensive guide to developing, validating, and implementing clinical prediction...

maastrichtuniversitypress.nl

A Causal Perspective on “Appropriate Implementation of ICH E9(R1) Addendum Strategies” (Comment on Fleming et al.) Tim P. Morris, Alex Ocampo, Jesper Madsen, Hege Michiels, Sanne Roels. Statistics in Medicine. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...

A Causal Perspective on “Appropriate Implementation of ICH E9(R1) Addendum Strategies” (Comment on Fleming et al.)

This commentary offers perspectives on delivering “rigorous causal inference on meaningful estimands” that differ from the opinions recently shared by Fleming et al. We (1) depict a more robust pathw...

onlinelibrary.wiley.com

What Makes an Estimand Useful? Guidance on the Choice of Intercurrent Event Strategies. Brennan C. Kahan, Fan Li, Michael O. Harhay, Suzie Cro. Statistics in Medicine. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...

What Makes an Estimand Useful? Guidance on the Choice of Intercurrent Event Strategies

While the use of estimands in randomized trials is increasing, there is little guidance on which intercurrent event strategies should be used. The article by Fleming et al. seeks to address this gap....

onlinelibrary.wiley.com

COMMENTARY: What Makes an Estimand Useful? Guidance on the Choice of Intercurrent Event Strategies @brennankahan.bsky.social @suziecro.bsky.social onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

What Makes an Estimand Useful? Guidance on the Choice of Intercurrent Event Strategies

While the use of estimands in randomized trials is increasing, there is little guidance on which intercurrent event strategies should be used. The article by Fleming et al. seeks to address this gap....

onlinelibrary.wiley.com