On the latest Off The Charts Football Podcast, @vigmanoncampus.bsky.social and his colleagues tried to explain analytics in a way that anyone could understand. This is the 1-minute explanation of what our stat Total Points is and what we're trying to do in tracking it. tinyurl.com/analyticsall

Wait, Keaton Mitchell might be able to catch passes?

Thread below on how I am working on approaching dynasty going forward. I have always operated with just Market values #1 and my opinions #3 (which is what most do) Now I am adding in Algorithmic trade values which are such a helpful guide/tool to use.

Connor LaPlante@cplant.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Refining what my dynasty process is going to look like more today. It's based on 3 different models of player value. 1. Market value 2. Algorithmic value: a prediction of where their market value is headed. 3. Intrinsic value (subjective): age adjusted opinion on player talent

Thread below on how I am working on approaching dynasty going forward. I have always operated with just Market values #1 and my opinions #3 (which is what most do) Now I am adding in Algorithmic trade values which are such a helpful guide/tool to use.

Connor LaPlante@cplant.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Refining what my dynasty process is going to look like more today. It's based on 3 different models of player value. 1. Market value 2. Algorithmic value: a prediction of where their market value is headed. 3. Intrinsic value (subjective): age adjusted opinion on player talent

Refining what my dynasty process is going to look like more today. It's based on 3 different models of player value. 1. Market value 2. Algorithmic value: a prediction of where their market value is headed. 3. Intrinsic value (subjective): age adjusted opinion on player talent

Yo, So with the help of @cplant.bsky.social and trashman.tint (on discord) and @tint_space on Twitter, I updated my NFL season total database All my other databases are still stuck at the end of the 2023 NFL season FYI, (2024 draft class for the rookie DB) docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

Pahowdy: NFL Database (2000-2023)

docs.google.com

Stats and analytics are awesome, but everyone is using the same datapoints. The edge now is coming up with your OWN data, whether that's through tracking your observations, synthesizing content you listen to or modeling your own decision making.

My RB Prospect Highlight MTF/Att vs Weighted Highlight Grades

Charted highlights of just about every relevant RB in the 2026 class's MTF broken down by type.

Some of my Missed Tackle Forced charting from my 2025 RB class highlight grading. (Didn't chart all RBs in this class)

How much impact do position groupings have at the goal line? Across 2022-2025 10,299 offensive plays after filtering out FG/XP/no-play League TD rate: 29.2% Teams had highest TD rate when going with heavier packages. Having a single WR on the field, dropped the TD rate ~10 percentage points. 1/3

“Showing” is always more powerful than “telling”. comfort-moods.beehiiv.com/p/it-s-magic...

It looks like projections at WR influence ADP too much compared to how strongly they correlate with next year's PPG.

Pickens in 2025: 4th highest in ESPNs Overall Score 2nd in NGS YACOE/Rec 1st in ESPNs YAC Score 10th in NGS CROE 9th in ESPNs Catch Score A 66 ESPN Open Score (50 is average) Almost an entirely green RP route tree…

I love to talk sports metrics online *and* I hate that every metrics conversation devolves into folks dismissing any metric that does not support their priors. That's what they're for! To make you think!

Refining Processes: What is a Process?

Refining Processes: What is a Process?

Connor LaPlante shares his thoughts on processes in the dynasty sphere.

dynastyleaguefootball.com

In his 6 games with a 50%+ route share, Flournoy averaged 13.2 PPR PPG. (which would’ve ranked as a top-24 WR on the season) (Data via @koalatystats.bsky.social stat explorer)

Am I the only one that confused PCA for Principle Component Analysis here at first?

BK?@whitesox.bsky.social · 4mo ago

Bandwagon PCA haters think they’re so special. I was calling him Pete Crow-for-4 in Wrigley Field in 2024.

Jay created a Dynasty Investor tool on the website. A data-based look at market price vs. production to evaluate value & get an edge in dynasty. Just really cool shit. www.thedevyroyale.xyz/dynasty-inve...

A decision tree for picking/valuing rookies:

Finally nailed down what I think is a good framework for intrinsic value in dynasty.

RB is a decent bit worse (after fiddling with it a lot this was the best I could get) Just very hard to isolate RB performance with data, most of the signal is just in volume.

Connor LaPlante@cplant.bsky.social · 4mo ago

Have tracked my talent opinions on players with a madden rating type of score over the last couple years. Created a model using data to explain my opinion on receiver talent (It's very simple and strongly correlated)

RB is a decent bit worse (after fiddling with it a lot this was the best I could get) Just very hard to isolate RB performance with data, most of the signal is just in volume.

Connor LaPlante@cplant.bsky.social · 4mo ago

Have tracked my talent opinions on players with a madden rating type of score over the last couple years. Created a model using data to explain my opinion on receiver talent (It's very simple and strongly correlated)

The coolest thing about this is I didn't do any model training at all, just did some basic feature selection and PCA'd the top few stats. So the risk of overfitting is very low. This is just a combination of a few metrics, Recs/Gm, Tgts/Gm, Tgt% and WOPR.

Connor LaPlante@cplant.bsky.social · 4mo ago

Have tracked my talent opinions on players with a madden rating type of score over the last couple years. Created a model using data to explain my opinion on receiver talent (It's very simple and strongly correlated)

Have tracked my talent opinions on players with a madden rating type of score over the last couple years. Created a model using data to explain my opinion on receiver talent (It's very simple and strongly correlated)

did you mean to say above here? @lateroundqb.bsky.social

@pahowdy.bsky.social You're on the clock!

Any landing spot where he's the clear #1 target right away might put him there for me. Think Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate were a Justin Jefferson/ Ja'Marr Chase type of tandem, but their QB was very very far from Joe Burrow.

Dynasty Dave@dynastydave.bsky.social · 7mo ago

If Tate goes to the Chiefs, I'd have him in tier 1 with Love.

Since 2001, Best Season PPG has been a stronger predictor of NFL draft capital than Last Season PPG and Career PPG for every position except RB. If you are going to look at a NFL prospect's production profile it's generally best to focus mainly on their best performing season.