New from Hainmueller and Laitin on the causal effects of becoming a citizen on wages. Short story: the observational ests overstate the premium relative to the experimental ests. Authors conclude "observational averages should not be used as causal forecasts for policy" doi.org/10.1073/pnas...

When oh when will polling outfits stop asking "more/less likely" questions? No way does this promise make 27% of the country *much less likely* to vote R, No way does this promise make a different 11% of the country *much more likely* to vote R!

JLRay@jlray.bsky.social · last mo.

The latest from YouGov: Does Trump's $5,000 promise make you more/less likely to vote R: Less +11 Would Trump keep this promise: Pro/definitely not +44 Would you be better off if Dems/Reps won in November: Dems +8 Everyone knows Trump is a liar. yougov.com/en-us/daily-...

Applications are open for EuroWEPS Berlin.👇There is also some change in the EuroWEPS organising committee. @pavisuri.bsky.social is taking a step back, while @aalrababah.bsky.social & @ewirsching.bsky.social are joining starting with this edition. A big thank you to Pavi & welcome to Ala and Elisa!

Anselm Hager@anselmhager.bsky.social · 2mo ago

EuroWEPS 14 is here! We'll meet in Berlin @wzb.bsky.social and discuss designs/papers focusing on causal inference. No presentations, just constructive discussions. Early career scholars especially welcome to apply! Deadline is Sept 11.

Not on the committee but happy to chat!

Alex Coppock@aecoppock.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Northwestern is hiring in quant methods (assistant level, tenure track) Please repost and share with those you think would be good candidates, thank you! polisci.northwestern.edu/about/facult... #psjobs #psjminfo #poliscijobs

Northwestern poli sci is hiring in quant methods! I'm not on the committee, but I AM excited to welcome new junior colleagues. We're also hiring in IR -- separate search, same amazing department (and university!)

Alex Coppock@aecoppock.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Northwestern is hiring in quant methods (assistant level, tenure track) Please repost and share with those you think would be good candidates, thank you! polisci.northwestern.edu/about/facult... #psjobs #psjminfo #poliscijobs

Northwestern is hiring in quant methods (assistant level, tenure track) Please repost and share with those you think would be good candidates, thank you! polisci.northwestern.edu/about/facult... #psjobs #psjminfo #poliscijobs

Just an enormous difference in Russian support for the war when comparing direct question estimates with experiments from list experiments. Also, peep those CIs! sensitivity bias has to be HUGE (which it apparently is in this case) to be detected with Direct - List

Georgy Tarasenko@tarasenkogeorgy.bsky.social · 3mo ago

Every wave after that splits. Direct support holds at ~75%. Indirect support drops to 44–58%. The gap runs from 16 to 30 percentage points.

Our (with Radha Sarkar) meta-reanalysis of the experimental religion and politics literature is now out at @apsrjournal.bsky.social Open-access link: doi.org/10.1017/S000... Brief thread

I'm thrilled to share that my dissertation has been selected as the co-winner of the Best Dissertation Award from the APSA Women, Gender, and Politics Section. Many thanks to the award committee, and to mentors and colleagues who offered support along the way!

I really hope that Sociology reforms. My main work is reanalyzing other scholars' experiments in service of meta-analysis. It's only possible because transparency is embraced so thoroughly by our political science community. Most exps are posted; i'm getting ~80% when I email for the rest.

John Holbein@johnholbein1.bsky.social · 4mo ago

Only 9.9% of top Sociology articles from 2019-2024 provided replication packages. And ≈ half of those with replication packages could not be verified due to missing or incomplete materials. www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10...

We have a new paper out on what the large conjoint literature tells us about public opinion on immigrant characteristics:

Marcel Roman@mfroman.bsky.social · 5mo ago

🚨NEW PUBLICATION🚨 in Science Advances. We meta-reanalyze 100 conjoint experiments to assess which immigrants citizens prefer around the world. Our evidence reinforces existing findings, identifies novel insights, and provides a basis for future research 1/n www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

🚨NEW PUBLICATION🚨 in Science Advances. We meta-reanalyze 100 conjoint experiments to assess which immigrants citizens prefer around the world. Our evidence reinforces existing findings, identifies novel insights, and provides a basis for future research 1/n www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

Which immigrants do citizens prefer? A meta-reanalysis of 100 conjoint experiments

Meta-reanalysis of 100 conjoint experiments reveals patterns of similarity and variation in public immigration preferences worldwide.

science.org

🌟 New article 👥 Eelco Harteveld, Lars Erik Berntzen, Andrej Kokkonen, Haylee Kelsall, Jonas Linde & Stefan Dahlberg 👉 The (alleged) consequences of affective polarization: A survey experiment in nine democracies 📗 European Journal of Political Research 🔗 www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Thrilled this is finally out in its JOP-formatted version! Hope it's useful to anyone working on LGBT politics, (electoral) discrimination, status differentials within & across identity categories, and non-textual experiments. Main findings in quoted thread. www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/epdf/10....

Martin Naunov@naunovmartin.bsky.social · last yr.

1/ Much has been said about 🇺🇸 becoming more accepting of gay candidates—especially since Pete Buttigieg’s presidential run. But I ask: What kind of gay candidates no longer face discrimination? And, specifically, how does gender presentation affect electoral viability?

He talked about description as well, including the specific recommendation to avoid associational language, simply because it has become so ambiguous (so not "is SES associated with Y" but rather: do people of different SES differ on average in Y).>

Read this #OpenAccess article by Amanda Sahar d’Urso in American Political Science Review, "What Happens When You Can’t Check the Box? Categorization Threat and Public Opinion among Middle Eastern and North African Americans"

What Happens When You Can’t Check the Box? Categorization Threat and Public Opinion among Middle Eastern and North African Americans

What Happens When You Can’t Check the Box? Categorization Threat and Public Opinion among Middle Eastern and North African Americans By Amanda Sahar d’Urso, Georgetown University Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) Americans are politically visible yet institutionally invisible, long categorized as “white” by the U.S. government despite neither self-categorizing nor racially assigned as such. Most forms—across public and private sectors—still lack a “MENA” category option.

politicalsciencenow.com

this is so interesting, i think this is basically a kind of ecological study

Mx. Coreo Jones@coreopsismajor.bsky.social · 6mo ago

Someone put a fake server on the Internet and logged everything that came knocking. Fascinating. mastodon.xyz/@soundclamp/...

Climate change impacts are here, but public support for action remains polarized. Which climate messages move people? In a ~13,500-person megastudy, we tested 10 of the most-cited messages. Six increased pro-environmental attitudes in the U.S.—but only by 1–4 percentage points. 🧵

Once again asking people not to post about poll results without links to the surveys, and not to repost anything that cites poll results without links to the surveys. This is not (primarily) about credit, it's a data credibility check.

Friends, you've been submitting great proposals for this project and we're now coming up to capacity. We're closing proposals on April 15th; please send yours in!

Alex Coppock@aecoppock.bsky.social · 9mo ago

🎺 Call for proposals 🎺 1️⃣ replicate an existing experiment 2️⃣ run a novel experiment on repdata.com 3️⃣ coauthor with Mary McGrath and me to meta-analyze the replications and existing studies 4️⃣ publish your study details: alexandercoppock.com/replication_... applications open Feb 1 please repost!

Nice new entry in the persistence literature

Political Science Research and Methods@psrm.bsky.social · 6mo ago

📰 Do the effects of partisan media fade quickly or accumulate over time? ➡️ Using multiwave experiments, M Baum et al. show a single exposure can have effects lasting up to a week, while cumulative effects are hard to detect www.cambridge.org/core/journal... #FirstView

🧵1/ Our first meta-science paper (with 350+ coauthors) is published today in Nature. It presents one of the largest-ever reproducibility projects in economics & political science. Here’s what we found 👇

From our FirstView article: What Happens When You Can’t Check the Box? Categorization Threat and Public Opinion among Middle Eastern and North African Americans by @asdurso.bsky.social. doi.org/10.1017/S000...

What Happens When You Can’t Check the Box? Categorization Threat and Public Opinion among Middle Eastern and North African Americans | American Political Science Review | Cambridge Core

What Happens When You Can’t Check the Box? Categorization Threat and Public Opinion among Middle Eastern and North African Americans

doi.org

Psychology has a whole cottage industry in which people come up with some construct that is essentially "attitudes/beliefs/expectations/feelings about X", and then the central claim is that this construct is a super important determinant of future X outcomes.>

I'm hiring a postdoc! @goetheuni.bsky.social Focus: CSS, political behavior, political communication & transforming information environments. 📍 Frankfurt | ⏳ 3 years | 📅 Deadline: 14 April 2026 Full job ad here: www.uni-frankfurt.de/48794987/Zen... (search for “political behavior” to find it)

New paper with Don Green and @ethanvporter.bsky.social in the QJPS. After much deliberation, we went with a title that just states the result. 📝 journal: www.emerald.com/qjps/article...

Congratulations to @yamilrvelez.bsky.social, @patrickpliu.bsky.social, and @scottclifford.bsky.social ! we think attitudes are some function of beliefs; our exps routinely move beliefs but not (even correlated) attitudes. This team found a way to guess which beliefs matter more (and they do!)

Yamil Ricardo Velez@yamilrvelez.bsky.social · 7mo ago

Conditionally accepted at the APSR (w/ @scottclifford.bsky.social & @patrickpliu.bsky.social): Why does political information so often change beliefs but NOT attitudes? We highlight the role of belief relevance, or the extent to which beliefs bear on attitudes.

P.S. Pre-post differences are *not* valid treatment effect estimates. Why? Here's a post by @statsepi.bsky.social: statsepi.substack.com/p/one-simple..., here's a post by me: www.the100.ci/2025/01/22/r... >

Reviewer notes: In a randomized experiment, the pre-post differences are not effect estimates

Reviewer notes are a new short format with brief explanations of basic ideas that might come in handy during (for example) the peer-review process. They are a great way to keep Julia from writing 10,0...

the100.ci

Writing simulations in DeclareDesign just went from "I should do that, but it's kind of a lot of work" to extremely easy