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Gustavo Diaz

@gustavodiaz.org

Methods at Northwestern Political Science. https://gustavodiaz.org/

15 Posts251 Follower 142 Folgt

APSA @apsa.bsky.social · last wk.

Isabella Bellezza Receives the 2026 Merze Tate Award for “Exporting Homeland Security: Network Politics and the Globalization of Border Control”

The Merze Tate Award is presented annually by the American Political Science Association (APSA) to honor the best doctoral dissertation in the field of international relations, law, and politics. Citation from the Award Committee: Isabella Bellezza’s dissertation, “Exporting Homeland Security: Network Politics and the Globalization of Border Control,” cuts across the conventional divisions between the fields of International Security, International Political Economy, and International Organization to open up new frontiers of inquiry.

politicalsciencenow.com

Political Science Department at Northwestern University @polisciatnu.bsky.social · 3w ago

Please join us in congratulating TWO professors, Isabella Bellezza ( @isabellabellezza.bsky.social ) & Elizabeth Thom ( @ipratnu.bsky.social ), who have have both received 2026 APSA Best Dissertation Awards!!! 👏👏👏💜🚀🚀🚀 politicalsciencenow.com/congratulati...

photo of Dr. Isabella Bellezza, College Fellow & Assistant Professor of Political Science at Northwestern University

photo of Dr. Elizabeth L. Thom, College Fellow & Assistant Professor of Political Science and Environmental Policy & Culture at Northwestern University

Political Science Department at Northwestern University @polisciatnu.bsky.social · 3w ago

New article out with @poqjournal.bsky.social 🚨 Not Your Mama’s Ideology (But Close): Modest Generational Differences in Ideological Alignment in Postcommunist Europe Ph.D. candidate Matej Jungwirth ( @matejjung.bsky.social ) @lenkahrbkova.bsky.social & @celytadeas.bsky.social

This paper examines whether generational change in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) is associated with shifts in how political attitudes align along the conventional economic–cultural left–right dimension. Because cohorts in the region were socialized under different political–economic systems, CEE provides a setting to assess whether younger generations display patterns of attitude alignment that differ from those of older cohorts. Using pooled European Social Survey data (2004–2023) and original surveys from Czechia, Hungary, and Lithuania, we combine an age–period–cohort analysis of left–right alignment with a network analysis of associations among thirteen salient issues. We find modest generational differences in the early 2000s, but these diminish over time, with all cohorts exhibiting similarly low levels of left–right alignment. Economic and cultural attitudes remain weakly connected, and EU- and foreign-policy issues often form separate clusters. The findings indicate that generational replacement has not produced a shift toward a more conventional left–right organization of belief systems in the region.

We adopt a two-pronged approach, combining large-N individual-level analysis with an in-depth study of ideological alignment in a smaller subset of countries but across a larger set of political issues. First, we use European Social Survey (ESS) data from nine Central and Eastern European EU member states to analyze trends from 2004 to 2023 on four core political issues: EU integration, LGBT rights, income inequality, and immigration (see table 1).

For individual-level analysis, we implement an age-period-cohort effects model to examine the alignment of positions across each pair of issues (i.e., six pairs among the four issues identified above: EU integration, LGBT rights, income inequality, and immigration). Alignment is measured through its inverse—the absolute distance between an individual’s positions on the two issues within each pair.5 Figure 1A illustrates how this measurement captures alignment. An individual takes a position
on one issue. This position is one standard deviation above the mean and thus liberal relative to the attitudes of others. In two scenarios, they can take a position (0.5 SD above the mean), which indicates alignment (a 0.5 SD distance), as they are liberal on both attitudes.

This approach allows for multivariate analysis that controls for additional socioeconomic differences across generations. We can describe temporal trends in alignment. It also allows for an analysis of heterogeneity in generational effects. The random forest model is summarized in Supplementary Material section E and discussed briefly below.

Using networks to measure the interconnectedness of beliefs is a well-established method in public opinion research (see, e.g., Baldassarri and Goldberg 2014; Gonthier and Guerra 2023; Van Noord et al. 2025; Cely 2025b). Networks are estimated using Spearman correlations, as opinions are measured on short ordinal scales.10 To assess interconnectedness in a manner consistent with a unidimensional ideological continuum (i.e., alignment with left–right stances as predefined by researchers; see table 2), we employ the measure of global expected influence (GEI), which captures the extent to which beliefs are constrained along a predefined ideological direction. Full wording of all items is provided in Supplementary Material section A. GEI differs from alternative metrics such as global strength, which does not assume directionality.11 Given the 78 edges among the 13 issues, both metrics can theoretically range from zero—indicating complete independence among all issues—to 78, which would imply perfect correlations of one across all issue pairs in the predefined direction. Empirically, we expect substantially lower values, as individual beliefs correlate only weakly in European contexts (Cely 2025a), and some negative associations are also very likely (Malka et al. 2019).

Cambridge University Press Political Science & IR @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org · 2mo ago

#OpenAccess from @apsrjournal.bsky.social - The Effects of Religious Messages and Endorsements on Political Attitudes: A Meta-Reanalysis - https://cup.org/4fw849c - RADHA SARKAR & @aecoppock.bsky.social #FirstView

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Francisca Castro @fcastrog.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Next week I'll be traveling to the UK to present some ongoing work at @uniofreading.bsky.social on the relationship of memory sites and far-right vote in Chile. I just uploaded the WP here, comments are welcome :-) francisca-castro.com/research/wor...

APSA @apsa.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Meet DFP Spring Fellow, Madia Harris, Northwestern University Madia Harris is a second-year PhD student in political science at Northwestern University, where she studies American politics. Madia is a 2024 graduate of the illustrious North Carolina A&T State University, where she graduated summa…

Meet DFP Spring Fellow, Madia Harris, Northwestern University

Madia Harris is a second-year PhD student in political science at Northwestern University, where she studies American politics. Madia is a 2024 graduate of the illustrious North Carolina A&T State University, where she graduated summa cum laude with a bachelor’s degree in political science at 19 years old. Her work examines structural racism and the mechanisms that sustain existing inequality. In her work on educational disparities, she analyzes how discrimination, socioeconomic status, geography, and policy interact to reproduce unequal outcomes for marginalized youth.

politicalsciencenow.com

Matej Jungwirth @matejjung.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Honored to share a preview of my dissertation research at @infomigration.bsky.social workshop and get valuable feedback and comments on my chapter analyzing the long-term legacies of territorial loss and forced displacement in Finland.

Martin Naunov @naunovmartin.bsky.social · 3mo ago

Thrilled this is finally out in its JOP-formatted version! Hope it's useful to anyone working on LGBT politics, (electoral) discrimination, status differentials within & across identity categories, and non-textual experiments. Main findings in quoted thread. www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/epdf/10....

Martin Naunov@naunovmartin.bsky.social · last yr.

1/ Much has been said about 🇺🇸 becoming more accepting of gay candidates—especially since Pete Buttigieg’s presidential run. But I ask: What kind of gay candidates no longer face discrimination? And, specifically, how does gender presentation affect electoral viability?

Chagai Weiss @chagaiweiss.bsky.social · 3mo ago

🚨The Toronto Political Behaviour Workshop is back for its 12th edition! Join us on Nov. 13–14, 2026 @UofT! We welcome paper/poster proposals on any topic in political behaviour, broadly defined! 📅 Submission Deadline: July 11. Apply here: utorontops.az1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_...

Gustavo Diaz @gustavodiaz.org · 3mo ago

I am chairing two supercool panels this year at @mpsa.bsky.social. First, "Machine Learning Applications." Fri, April 24, 3:20 to 4:50pm CDT. Lots of stuff about LLMs. Love them, hate them, don't miss them. convention2.allacademic.com/one/mpsa/mps...

Vincent Arel-Bundock @vincentab.bsky.social · 4mo ago

It's out, everyone. It's out! Julia is one of the most brilliant translational methodologists I know, and it was a real honor to work with her on this paper. Please let us know if you have any questions or feedback! (BTW, I'm a psychologist now?)

Julia M. Rohrer@dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 4mo ago

Good news everyone 🥳 Our (w @vincentab.bsky.social) primer on models as prediction machines (with the marginaleffects package) is finally officially published!> journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

Tabitha Bonilla @tabithabonilla.bsky.social · 4mo ago

It is always nice to wake up to a FirstView from JREP, but never more so than when you are working with a brilliant student, especially Eden Melles. This article examines how religious identity (Muslim and Christian) shapes Black American political attitudes. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Examining Religious and Racial Identity for Black Christians and Muslims in the United States | Journal of Race, Ethnicity, and Politics | Cambridge Core

Examining Religious and Racial Identity for Black Christians and Muslims in the United States

cambridge.org

Vincent Arel-Bundock @vincentab.bsky.social · 4mo ago

The great @eddelbuettel.com invited me to his STAT447 class at the University of Illinois. If you'd like to hear me speak about the interpretation of statistical models in #RStats, using the {marginaleffects} 📦, check out the video! www.youtube.com/watch?v=v3TX...

STAT 447 (2026) Guest Lecture by Vincent Arel-Bundock

YouTube video by Dirk Eddelbuettel

youtube.com

Peter K. Enns @peterenns.bsky.social · 4mo ago

I am excited to announce the beta release of @verasight.io’s Free AI Survey Programming Tool: Doc2Survey, that automatically converts any survey drafted in a Word or Google Doc to a programmed Qualtrics survey (.qsf file). We are making Doc2Survey available for free! www.verasight.io/doc2survey

Talbot Andrews @talbotmandrews.bsky.social · 4mo ago

Now more than ever we encounter each other's emotions about politics, on social media and in the news. When do we take strangers' emotional expression seriously, and when do we dismiss it as inappropriate or even insincere? You can find out now in our Cambridge Element!

Emotions on Our Screens

Cambridge Core - Politics: General Interest - Emotions on Our Screens

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Alex Coppock @aecoppock.bsky.social · 6mo ago

🎺 Call for proposals 🎺 1️⃣ replicate an existing experiment 2️⃣ run a novel experiment on repdata.com 3️⃣ coauthor with Mary McGrath and me to meta-analyze the replications and existing studies 4️⃣ publish your study details: alexandercoppock.com/replication_... applications open Feb 1 please repost!

Call for Proposals: Data Collection for
Replication+Novel Political Science Survey Experiments
Alexander Coppock and Mary McGrath
January 27, 2026
We invite proposals for a survey experiment replication+novel design competition. Se-
lected replication+novel design survey experiments will be conducted on large samples of
American respondents, quota sampled to match U.S. Census margins and filtered for quality
and attention by the survey sample provider Rep Data (repdata.com).
Each proposal consists of two parts: (1) a replication study of an existing, previously
published survey experiment, and (2) a novel experimental design on a topic of the authors’
choosing.
The replication studies and reanalyses of the existing studies will be combined into a
meta-paper to be co-authored by all authors of accepted proposals along with the princi-
pal investigators (Coppock and McGrath). As a condition for acceptance, authors commit
to sharing the data and producing a write-up of the findings from their novel design for
submission to a scholarly journal, and public posting of a working paper pre-publication.

Drew Stommes @drewstommes.bsky.social · 6mo ago

After years in academia, I’m exploring data science and research roles in industry. I'm a quant. social scientist (PhD Yale ’24, NYU) focused on causal inference, experiments, and large-scale data. Feel free to get in touch or share; all leads appreciated. dwstommes@gmail.com

Gustavo Diaz @gustavodiaz.org · 7mo ago

Looking for 1-2 papers (and maybe one more discussant) to put together an #APSA2026 panel proposal on recent methodological developments in surveys/experiments (can go either way). Feel free to reach out!

Connor T. Jerzak @jerzakconnor.bsky.social · 8mo ago

Calling those looking to get feedback on their quant work📢: Join us at @TexasAM for TexMeth2026 this Feb. Great opportunity to connect with the regional community and showcase your research. The sun will still be strong for those coming from the north!🤝📊☀️ Apply: docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...

Texas Methods Conference 2026

Please answer the following questions to indicate your interest in attending and/or participating at our conference, which is scheduled to take place on Friday and Saturday, February 20-21, at Texas A...

docs.google.com

Political Analysis @polanalysis.bsky.social · 8mo ago

Currently in FirstView: In “Survey Professionalism: New Evidence from Web Browsing Data,” Bernhard Clemm von Hohenberg, @tiagoventura.bsky.social, Tiago Ventura, @jonathannagler.bsky.social, @ericka.bric.digital, & Magdalena Wojcieszak provide evidence on survey professionalism across three samples.

Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 8mo ago

Needed - larger samples, more realism about (the lack of) heterogeneous treatment effects: -"less than a third of proposed hypotheses were supported... the largest predictor of positive exp. results was sample size" -"moderation hypotheses were rarely significant" academic.oup.com/poq/advance-...

An Audit of Social Science Survey Experiments

Abstract. Survey experiments have become a popular methodology for causal inference across the social sciences. We study the efficacy of survey experiment

academic.oup.com

Chagai Weiss @chagaiweiss.bsky.social · 9mo ago

🏆APSA's Experimental Research Section Best Paper Award🏆 Did you present an experiment at APSA2026? Submit your conference paper for the Experimental Research Section's best paper award by April 15, 2026. @sumitra.bsky.social @talbotmandrews.bsky.social and I are excited to read your work!

Political Analysis @polanalysis.bsky.social · 10mo ago

Currently in FirstView: In “Balancing Precision and Retention in Experimental Design,” @gustavodiaz.org and Erin Rossiter study how experimental design choices can increase precision when estimating treatment effects. Specifically, they examine block-randomized and pre-post designs.

Avital Livny @avitallivny.bsky.social · 11mo ago

Just over one week to go before the September 16 deadline. Excited to review the applications and engage with folks’ work!

Avital Livny@avitallivny.bsky.social · 12mo ago

Y'all it's official. WE ARE HIRING! Here is the ad with all the details: illinois.csod.com/ux/ats/caree... And here's the skinny: Political behavior, broadly defined @ the assistant level. Comparative behavior/psych + REP especially encouraged. Come join a great department at a great institution!

Christina Wolbrecht @cwolbrecht.bsky.social · last yr.

Check out this fascinating paper by my colleagues Erin Rossiter and Jeff Harden. Such a cool design and interesting findings. Plus, Taylor!

Matt Grossmann@mattgrossmann.bsky.social · last yr.

We have a JOP article about how swifties ~randomly denied tickets to the eras tour due to website allocation errors changed their views on related policies www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1...

Political Science Department at Northwestern University @polisciatnu.bsky.social · last yr.

"We use real-world data to demonstrate a counterintuitive result: precision gains from block-randomized or pre-post designs can withstand significant sample loss that may arise during implementation." @gustavodiaz.org & Erin Rossiter via @polanalysis.bsky.social doi.org/10.1017/pan....

“Balancing Precision and Retention in Experimental Design.”
Political Analysis, 2025, 1–10.
https://doi.org/10.1017/pan.2025.10008

Gustavo Diaz and Erin Rossiter

In experimental social science, precise treatment effect estimation is of utmost importance, and researchers can make design choices to increase precision. Specifically, block-randomized and pre-post designs are promoted as effective means to increase precision. However, implementing these designs requires pre-treatment covariates, and collecting this information may decrease sample sizes, which in and of itself harms precision. Therefore, despite the literature’s recommendation to use block-randomized and pre-post designs, it remains unclear when to expect these designs to increase precision in applied settings. We use real-world data to demonstrate a counterintuitive result: precision gains from block-randomized or pre-post designs can withstand significant sample loss that may arise during implementation. Our findings underscore the importance of incorporating researchers’ practical concerns into existing experimental design advice.

Cambridge University Press Political Science & IR @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org · last yr.

#OpenAccess from ‪@polanalysis.bsky.social - Balancing Precision and Retention in Experimental Design - cup.org/44E5isE - @gustavodiaz.org & Erin Rossiter #FirstView

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British Journal of Political Science @bjpols.bsky.social · last yr.

From April 2025 - Ignoring Women’s Performance: A Survey Experiment on Policy Implementation in Argentina - cup.org/4clGHLw - @gustavodiaz.org, @viroliveros.bsky.social, Rebecca Weitz-Shapiro & Matthew S. Winters #OpenAccess

BJPolS abstract discussing the potential influence of a politician's gender on voter expectations and perceptions in Argentina, focusing on responses from an online survey experiment about a hypothetical city mayor.

Lucia Stein-Montalvo @lsmontal.bsky.social · last yr.

📢 The Adaptive Structures Lab is hiring a postdoc! Learn more here: www.linkedin.com/posts/lsmont...

Postdoc Position Adaptive Structures Lab | Lucia Stein-Montalvo

📢 The Adaptive Structures Lab (adaptivestructureslab.com) at Northwestern University (northwestern.edu) is hiring! Please share this post with your network. We are seeking a postdoctoral researcher t...

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