Tessera

Folgen

Ivan Yotzov

@iyotzov.bsky.social

Economist Bank of England / Decision Maker Panel. PhD from University of Warwick. https://www.iyotzov.com

14 Posts333 Follower 264 Folgt

The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 3mo ago

NEW: The current energy crisis has so far affected fewer firms than in 2022, new evidence shows. 📗 @trfetzer.com, @christinavpalmou.bsky.social, @jschneebacher.bsky.social & @iyotzov.bsky.social show that exposed firms responded in the first two months mainly with increased prices and inventories:

Quote from IFS Associate Director Jakob Schneebacher: "So far, the 2026 energy price shock has been narrower and less damaging than the 2022 crisis. Higher oil prices seem to have hit the minority of firms that use oil intensively. Based on data up to April, affected firms were more likely to raise their prices, passing on some of the cost increases to customers, and increase their inventories. We have not yet seen widespread effects on firms’ balance sheets or investment decisions, as were seen over the course of the 2022 crisis. But we will need to monitor the effects on firms over the coming months, especially if the most recent spikes in oil prices in July are maintained."

Jakob Schneebacher @jschneebacher.bsky.social · 3mo ago

How can we give policymakers the timely, causal, granular evidence they need to respond to crises as they unfold? A short thread on our updated working paper with @trfetzer.com, @christinavpalmou.bsky.social and @iyotzov.bsky.social.

VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · last yr.

@paulmizen.bsky.social @iyotzov.bsky.social et al. study the impact of tariffs on UK firms. Using survey data, they find that, on average, the majority of firms expect no material impact on their sales, investment, and prices. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Chart showing the expected impact of US tariffs over the year ahead from survey data of UK firms. Around 75% expect no impact on sales or investment.

In the first half of 2025, the US and some of its trading partners announced significant changes to import tariffs. This column uses newly designed questions to study the impact of these changes on UK firms and to assess the level of trade uncertainty. On average, the majority of firms expect no material impact on their sales, investment, and prices; those that do expect it to be a relatively small negative impact. Tariffs are a new source of uncertainty for firms, although the level of uncertainty remains lower than for previous shocks such as Brexit, Covid-19, or the Russia-Ukraine war.

Mishel Ghassibe 🇺🇦@mickeygb.bsky.social · last yr.

🌟NEW PAPER🌟 Forward-looking inflation is central to monetary economics A micro building block of such foresight is Intertemporal Pass-Through (iPT): the sensitivity of firms' *current* reset prices to *expected* marginal costs We estimate iPT and find it consistent with sticky-price models

Mishel Ghassibe 🇺🇦@mickeygb.bsky.social · last yr.

Joint work with Boromeus Wanengkirtyo and @iyotzov.bsky.social Link: www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

Intertemporal pass-through

Staff working papers set out research in progress by our staff, with the aim of encouraging comments and debate.

bankofengland.co.uk

Applied Young Economists' Webinar @ayew.bsky.social · last yr.

TOMORROW (14 May): AYEW Political Economy Workshop! Join us at 7pm AEST/ 10am BST to listen to Mohammad Mahdi Jafari (Sharif University of Technology), @alvarozc.bsky.social (@pse.bsky.social) & Jingshu Wen (@ox.ac.uk) Sign up for Zoom details: monash.edu/business/imp...

Applied Young Economists' Webinar @ayew.bsky.social · last yr.

TOMORROW (7 May): AYEW Labour Economics Workshop! Join us at 11:00am BST to listen to Minali Grover (IIM Indore), Aicha Kharazi (@exeter.ac.uk) and Julian Tiedtke (Sant’Anna School of Advanced Studies) Sign up for Zoom details: www.monash.edu/business/imp...

Ivan Yotzov @iyotzov.bsky.social · 2y ago

🚨NEW POST In April 2025, the increases in employer NICs announced in the Autumn Budget came into effect. We use Decision Maker Panel (DMP) survey data to study how UK firms plan to adjust and the effects on expectations up to March 2025. 🧵

Jakob Schneebacher @jschneebacher.bsky.social · 2y ago

The UK will soon have a new industrial strategy. What can we learn from past policies, and from examining the sectors in the government's recent green paper? Our new CMA report looks at the data. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/industrial-policies-new-evidence-for-the-uk 1/

VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 2y ago

UK firms' inflation expectations are most responsive when inflation coverage in the media is elevated. This shows a distinction between expectations of financial markets vs. firms - important for economic modelling. @iyotzov.bsky.social @paulmizen.bsky.social et al. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Graphs of firms' inflation perceptions and expectations showing that they respond to changes in CPI inflation, not CPI surprises.

Since 2021, developed countries have experienced a significant inflation episode. This column uses Decision Maker Panel data from UK CEOs and CFOs to study firms’ inflation perceptions and expectations around monthly official inflation releases. Firms’ expectations are most responsive when inflation coverage in the media is elevated, suggesting salience is a key issue, as the media focuses attention on data releases. Furthermore, firms respond to changes in headline inflation rates and not to surprises relative to professional forecasts. The results highlight a distinction between financial markets (‘Wall Street’) and firms (‘Main Street’), which should inform modelling of economic behaviour.

Ivan Yotzov @iyotzov.bsky.social · 2y ago

Check out our new @voxeu.org column which analyses how firm inflation perceptions/expectations respond to CPI inflation releases Firms respond to changes in CPI inflation, not news relative to professional forecasts. Full WP: www.nber.org/papers/w32731 cepr.org/voxeu/column...

Inflation on Wall Street versus Main Street

Since 2021, developed countries have experienced a significant inflation episode. This column uses Decision Maker Panel data from UK CEOs and CFOs to study firms’ inflation perceptions and expectations around monthly official inflation releases. Firms’ expectations are most responsive when inflation coverage in the media is elevated, suggesting salience is a key issue, as the media focuses attention on data releases. Furthermore, firms respond to changes in headline inflation rates and not to surprises relative to professional forecasts. The results highlight a distinction between financial markets (‘Wall Street’) and firms (‘Main Street’), which should inform modelling of economic behaviour.

cepr.org

Applied Young Economists' Webinar @ayew.bsky.social · 2y ago

TOMORROW (26 March): AYEW Urban Economics Workshop! Join us at 11:00am GMT to listen to Jorge Páscoa Ferreira (Nova SBE), @cosentinopol.bsky.social (@sorbonneparis1.bsky.social) and Yutong Guo (@bristoluni.bsky.social) Sign up for Zoom details: www.monash.edu/business/imp...

Applied Young Economists' Webinar @ayew.bsky.social · 2y ago

Season 10 is here!🎊🎉 TOMORROW (12 March, 11:00am GMT): Gender Economics Workshop! @sarthakjoshi.bsky.social (@warwickecon.bsky.social), Yifan Lyu (@sthlmschoolofecon.bsky.social), @akanksha-vardani.bsky.social (@columbiauniversity.bsky.social) Sign up for Zoom details: monash.edu/business/imp...

Heiner Mikosch @hmikosch.bsky.social · 2y ago

#Research talk by @iyotzov.bsky.social (BoE) at @kofeth.bsky.social: How Curvy is the Phillips Curve? - Convex, but only for high #inflation #firms (cf. figure). www.nber.org/papers/w33234 Thanx @lukashack.bsky.social & @eneabaselgia.bsky.social! Pic: Ivan, Remo Gurtner & @hmikosch.bsky.social:

Applied Young Economists' Webinar @ayew.bsky.social · 2y ago

🚨CALL FOR PAPERS🚨 Hey #EconSky! We are now accepting submissions for Season 10 of the Applied Young Economist Webinar! Deadline: Friday, 28 February 2025 Details below⬇️

Ivan Yotzov @iyotzov.bsky.social · 2y ago

Check out our updated working paper on “The Speed of Firm Response to Inflation” Main Result: Firms respond to changes in headline inflation but not surprises relative to professional forecasts. Highlights distinction between “Wall Street” & “Main Street” Link: www.nber.org/papers/w32731

Stefanie Stantcheva @s-stantcheva.bsky.social · 2y ago

🚨 New data alert! Curious about how people really understand inflation—its causes, impacts & what governments should do about it? 📊 You can dive into the data from our project "People's understanding of inflation" here: socialeconomicslab.org/research/pub... Excited to see new analyses!

People’s Understanding of Inflation - Social Economics Lab

This paper studies people’s understanding of inflation — their perceived causes, consequences, trade-offs — and the policies supported to mitigate its effects. We design a new, detailed online survey ...

socialeconomicslab.org

Programme on Innovation and Diffusion @poid-lse.bsky.social · 2y ago

New #POIDWorkingPaper analysing the importance of climate-related investment using a large economy-wide survey of UK firms. By Nicholas Bloom, Philip Bunn, Paul Mizen, Prachi Srivastava, Gregory Thwaites & @iyotzov.bsky.social poid.lse.ac.uk/PUBLI...

Ivan Yotzov @iyotzov.bsky.social · 2y ago

Check out our new working paper on non-linearities in the Phillips curve!

NBER@nber.org · 2y ago

Using data from large panel surveys of UK and US firms to show that the response of prices to demand shocks is convex at the firm level, from Philip Bunn, Lena Anayi, Nicholas Bloom, Paul Mizen, Gregory Thwaites, and Ivan Yotzov https://www.nber.org/papers/w33234

Ivan Yotzov @iyotzov.bsky.social · 2y ago

🎉 This month the Decision Maker Panel (DMP) celebrates its 100th survey wave 🎉 It has been an eventful 8.5 years and over 14,000 firms have responded to the survey since 2016! We wrote a short blog summarising some key insights from the DMP over this period 👇

Ivan Yotzov @iyotzov.bsky.social · 2y ago

🚨New Working Paper In 1958, Bill Phillips plotted a convex relationship between unemployment and wage growth. But since then, many papers have worked with a linear Phillips curve. In a new @nberpubs.bsky.social paper, we ask: “How Curvy is the Phillips Curve?” Link: www.nber.org/papers/w33234

Benjamin Born @bborn.bsky.social · 2y ago

Heading to Munich for the 14th ifo Conference on #Macro and #SurveyData! Thrilled to co-organize this fantastic event. Excited for two days filled with cutting-edge research—and maybe a Bavarian beer or two. 🍻 @apeichl.bsky.social ifo.de/en/event/202...

14th ifo Conference on Macroeconomics and Survey Data

The purpose of this conference is to discuss ongoing research on survey and micro data and its role and usage in macroeconomics.

ifo.de

Programme on Innovation and Diffusion @poid-lse.bsky.social · 2y ago

Firm #climate investment: A glass half-full | Read the latest CEPR @voxeu.org column by Nicholas Bloom, Philip Bunn, Paul Mizen, @prachisrivas.bsky.social, Gregory Thwaites and @iyotzov.bsky.social poid.lse.ac.uk/PUBLI...

Ivan Yotzov @iyotzov.bsky.social · 2y ago

*New* @voxeu.org column on UK firm climate investment using data from the Decision Maker Panel out today! VoxEU: cepr.org/voxeu/column... Full working paper: www.nber.org/papers/w33081

Ivan Yotzov @iyotzov.bsky.social · 2y ago

The Decision Maker Panel is a monthly survey of UK businesses. Today, we published a paper which: 1. Provides an overview of survey structure & questions 2. Evaluates data quality 3. Info on how to access microdata Paper: bankofengland.co.uk/working-paper/… Website: https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk