Christina Gahn

@christinagahn.bsky.social

Postdoctoral Researcher at University of Vienna. Dr in Political Science from Humboldt University of Berlin Political science, political communication, electoral campaigns, targeting, party competition, public opinion polls https://christina.gahn.at

Hier das ganze Interview, vielen Dank nochmal @irisbonavida.bsky.social! 📰📊 Zum Paper mit @krausewe.bsky.social: doi.org/10.1086/742632

Zeitungsseite der Salzburger Nachrichten vom 21. Juli 2026, Seite 4, Ressort Österreich. Interview mit Christina Gahn unter dem Titel „Die Macht der Umfragen". Großes Foto: eine Hand wirft einen gefalteten Stimmzettel in eine Wahlurne. Rechts unten ein Porträtfoto von Christina Gahn mit dem hervorgehobenen Zitat: „Ein Problem ist nur, wenn taktisches Wählen auf falschen Annahmen beruht."
Christina Gahn@christinagahn.bsky.social · 2w ago

Danke @irisbonavida.bsky.social für das Gespräch! Kurz gesagt: Für Parteien an der Vier-Prozent-Hürde macht es einen Unterschied, ob eine Umfrage sie knapp darunter oder knapp darüber zeigt. 📊🗳️ Wer mehr Details wissen möchte – das Paper mit @krausewe.bsky.social gibt es hier: doi.org/10.1086/742632

Danke @irisbonavida.bsky.social für das Gespräch! Kurz gesagt: Für Parteien an der Vier-Prozent-Hürde macht es einen Unterschied, ob eine Umfrage sie knapp darunter oder knapp darüber zeigt. 📊🗳️ Wer mehr Details wissen möchte – das Paper mit @krausewe.bsky.social gibt es hier: doi.org/10.1086/742632

Iris Bonavida@irisbonavida.bsky.social · 2w ago

Sonntagsfragen sorgen wieder für Schlagzeilen. Aber wieviel Einfluss haben Umfragen auf das Wahlergebnis? @christinagahn.bsky.social und Werner Krause haben 25 Länder verglichen und in Österreich ein Experiment gestartet. Welche Lehren können Medien und Bevölkerung daraus ziehen? www.sn.at/663088

I'm very happy to share that my first dissertation paper is now online in Party Politics (🔓)! I examine how political appointments (patronage) relate to coalition support in multiparty presidential systems, using roll-call data from Brazil's Chamber of Deputies (2003-2018). doi.org/10.1177/1354...

Bureaucratic appointments and coalition support in presidential systems – An analysis of Brazil’s Chamber of Deputies - Koichi Osamura, 2026

How does the provision of political appointments influence coalition support in multiparty presidential systems? While the importance of cabinet portfolios for ...

journals.sagepub.com

Why does democracy backslide even when most people say they support it? ⚖️🏛️ Senior Scientist Dr. Marta Vukovic @martav.bsky.social explains why citizens sometimes tolerate democratic violations and what it takes to protect liberal democracy in Rudolphina's newest article and video. ⬇️ @univie.ac.at

Democratic backsliding explained | University of Vienna

Democracy can backslide even when most people say they support it. University of Vienna political scientist Marta Vukovic explains why citizens sometimes tolerate democratic violations and what it tak...

rudolphina.univie.ac.at

Got a PhD in social sciences and expertise in (digital) survey research and programming? We are looking for you! With the establishment of the new #NexusSoSci facility we are seeking to hire a Senior Scientist for the Online-Panel Lab. 📅Deadline: 22nd of June Find out more and apply ⬇️

Senior Scientist for Online-Panel Lab NexusSoSci

Senior Scientist for Online-Panel Lab NexusSoSci

jobs.univie.ac.at

Excited to share our new paper in @thejop.bsky.social with @krausewe.bsky.social! Parties polling just below an electoral threshold are far less likely to clear it: a self-fulfilling prophecy that diminishes when polls communicate uncertainty. 🗳️📊 www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...

Werner Krause@krausewe.bsky.social · 2mo ago

New paper out in the @thejop.bsky.social (w/ @christinagahn.bsky.social) Do opinion polls shape election results? Using both cross-national data and a survey experiment, the answer we find is yes - though it depends on how we communicate polling results. www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...

Image showing the abstract of the paper "Self-Fulfilling Prophecies at the Voting Booth" by Werner Krause and Christina Gahn, published in the Journal of Politics. The abstract describes a quasi-experimental study across 25 countries finding that parties polling just below electoral thresholds are approximately 45 percentage points less likely to clear them, and that this effect diminishes when voters are informed about polling uncertainty.

New paper in IJPP📗 How does right-wing alternative media use affect political anxiety and anger as well as trust in political institutions? Drawing from 3 survey waves, RW alt. media use was positively related to anger. In turn, anger negatively affected pol. trust. OA: doi.org/10.1177/1940... 1/5

Picture of the paper's abstract: "The rise of right-wing alternative media across many Western democracies has been discussed as a challenge to democratic institutions and processes, contributing to the erosion of political trust. Political trust scholars, as well as previous research on alternative media use, have both recognized that emotions play a crucial role in their subject of study. However, research investigating this affective component is extremely sparse. Drawing from appraisal theory and affective intelligence theory, this study investigates the role of anger and anxiety in the nexus between right-wing alternative media use and political trust. The study relies on data from a three-wave panel survey conducted in Austria (N = 1,504) to estimate a random intercept cross-lagged panel model distinguishing within- and between-person relationships. Results suggest that right-wing alternative media use increased political anger over time. Further, anger reduced political trust over time. For anxiety, the picture is more nuanced: Political anxiety was not affected by right-wing alternative media use. Anxiety reduced political trust between wave 1 and wave 2, but not between wave 2 and wave 3. Neither anger nor anxiety increased right-wing alternative media use over time. Implications are discussed."

Can attitudes change our identities? 🪪 Group-based anti‑immigration appeals nudged participants to newly claim “working‑class” or “Christian” even without strong objective ties or changes to policy views - showing instrumental belief justification. #Identity #Immigration Read the study recap:

BLOG: Identity Spillovers

Social identities are often considered to be given facts that define us and our perspective of the world. Especially in politics, they are a driving force mobilizing voters across the political spectr...

staatswissenschaft.univie.ac.at

🚨 New Article in Politics and Governance When Populists Win but Are Excluded From Power: Explaining Post‐Electoral Dynamics of Democratic Satisfaction By @schnizzl.bsky.social and S. Kritzinger 🔗 Open access: doi.org/10.17645/pag... 🧵 1/6 #Polisky

When Populists Win but Are Excluded From Power: Explaining Post‐Electoral Dynamics of Democratic Satisfaction | Article | Politics and Governance

Julia Partheymüller, Sylvia Kritzinger

doi.org

In the age of AI, there's a lot of talk about students not doing real work anymore. As a teacher, I catch myself focusing on the struggles rather than the wins. Time to fix that. A thread highlighting standout papers from my quantitative methods seminar last term @univie.ac.at. 🧵

I’d especially like to encourage women to apply. We’re a fantastic department with excellent scholars, in beautiful Vienna. Data shows that women are less likely to apply for positions than equally qualified men (Muriel Niederle & Lise Vesterlund 2011), so if you’re considering it, please go for it!

Reto Bürgisser@retobuergisser.bsky.social · 4mo ago

🚨 Job Alert 🚨 We have an opening for a 𝗣𝗼𝘀𝘁𝗱𝗼𝗰 𝗣𝗼𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 @stawi-univie.bsky.social starting Aug/Sep 2026! Focus: political representation, party competition, political institutions, political economy, political behavior, or related fields 📅Apply by 29 April 2026 jobs.univie.ac.at/job/Universi...

Job vacancy announcement for a postdoctoral position at the University of Vienna Department of Government, starting August/September 2026. Research focus includes political representation, party competition, political institutions, political economy, political behavior, or related fields. Application deadline: 29 April 2026. Full details are also available through the shared link.

I've been asked over the last few days/weeks what I think will happen on April 12th in Orbán's 🇭🇺 (and the aftermath), so here's my assessment, looking at everything as it stands now 🧵 tldr: It's complicated, and no one really knows (and those who say they do are either lying or overly confident) 1/

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