Isabelle Guinaudeau

@iguinaudeau.bsky.social

Political scientist, CNRS researcher at Sciences Po, CEE - currently at Centre Marc Bloch in Berlin: researching comparative politics, party competition and how elections shape policy

Risky group appeals? 😱 Our paper on how citizens react to electoral promises targeted at different social groups is published in @ejprjournal.bsky.social With @iguinaudeau.bsky.social & @elisadeisshelbig.bsky.social 🚀 🔓 doi.org/10.1017/S147...

Risk It For The Biscuit

ALT: Risk It For The Biscuit

static.klipy.com

Isabelle Guinaudeau@iguinaudeau.bsky.social · 2mo ago

💫 New paper! @elisadeisshelbig.bsky.social, @theresmatthiess.bsky.social & I are happy to see our new paper published in open access with the @ejprjournal.bsky.social Do group-targeted campaign pledges pay off electorally? We test this with a preregistered survey experiment in Germany.

Really interesting study! The impact is probably even more crucial in countries using majoritarian systems such as France.

Werner Krause@krausewe.bsky.social · 2mo ago

New paper out in the @thejop.bsky.social (w/ @christinagahn.bsky.social) Do opinion polls shape election results? Using both cross-national data and a survey experiment, the answer we find is yes - though it depends on how we communicate polling results. www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...

Image showing the abstract of the paper "Self-Fulfilling Prophecies at the Voting Booth" by Werner Krause and Christina Gahn, published in the Journal of Politics. The abstract describes a quasi-experimental study across 25 countries finding that parties polling just below electoral thresholds are approximately 45 percentage points less likely to clear them, and that this effect diminishes when voters are informed about polling uncertainty.

Can France still be governed under its current electoral system? After almost two years of parliamentary fragmentation, the situation remains unsettled: huge frustration, no stable majority and a presidential election already casting its polarising shadow over parliamentary life.

Bild

Many thanks to the @mzesunimannheim.bsky.social for the invitation to present our new experiment with @elisadeisshelbig.bsky.social and @theresmatthiess.bsky.social next Tuesday! I really look forward to the discussion 👀 Please let me know if you are in Mannheim and would like to meet.

MZES Uni Mannheim@mzesunimannheim.bsky.social · 3mo ago

❗️ Tue, May 5, 12:15-13:30 CET 📍 A 231 and ZOOM MZES Speaker Series with @iguinaudeau.bsky.social "Wallets, Redistribution, and Vote Choice: Experimental Evidence from Germany" 👉 www.mzes.uni-mannheim.de/en/news/even... 1/2

An important point. A study of police in Chicago police between Jan. 2011 and Dec. 2015, “found that more than half of the officers received fewer than one complaint a year. By contrast, the worst 1 percent of officers generated about 25 percent of the complaints.” www.theroot.com/how-to-go-fr...

southpaw@nycsouthpaw.bsky.social · 6mo ago

It’s notable that both of the killers were, with varying degrees of success, spraying irritants in bystanders’ eyes seconds before the shooting.

Looking forward to discuss political trust in Berlin with @fhollande.bsky.social, Armin Laschet and @steffenmau.bsky.social next week!

The Max Planck Institute for Political and Social Science@mpips.bsky.social · 6mo ago

How can we restore trust in politics? The politicians @fhollande.bsky.social & Armin Laschet engage with our Director @steffenmau.bsky.social & CNRS Researcher @iguinaudeau.bsky.social in a discussion on political credibility & rebuilding trust. Hosted by the @centremarcbloch.bsky.social