FINAL UPDATE FINAL UPDATE!!! Latest polls (the three this week) on net better for Labour. Shifts things slightly but not hugely. theoverhangaonz.substack.com/p/final-poll...

The direction of travel in Texas should not be surprising: -Trump won by a lot, which means there are a lot of Republicans willing to flip -The swing is often consistent across different areas. It's a statewide/national election. -Party in white house usually goes backwards

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · 23h ago

what even is the conspiracy theory here? Greg Abbott rigged the election against himself? Biden is so all powerful he's controlling the voting machines?

The AEC usually does a 2PP count (Labor vs Coalition) in every seat, even when they aren't the top two. But as more seats move away from that combination, that may well not happen next time around www.tallyroom.com.au/68951

Perfect election day post diptych

Today's podcast looks at this weekend's NZ election with @overhang-aonz.bsky.social. The MMP system's ability to produce a proportional result is being tested, with National potentially winning a large swag of FPTP electorates but not enough of the list vote to justify that seat count.

Podcast #172 – New Zealand’s MMP shows the strain

Ben is joined by James Mulrennan from The Overhang to discuss this weekend’s New Zealand election – the parties, the polls and the ways in which New Zealand’s electoral system mig…

tallyroom.com.au

Wouldn't happen if it was a partisan election IMO

Jen@juniperlilacs.bsky.social · last wk.

For those playing in other states, that would mean the Tasmanian capital city council would potentially have a lone woman who ran on a “trans toilet panic” platform and is also the head of the Landlord Lobby Group, so…. GOOD LUCK WITH THAT MENTAL HEALTH AND HOUSING CRISIS. Jfc.

Keen to get involved with @benraue.com and @benitakolovos.bsky.social discussing VicElects 2026! I'll have some takes, I'm sure.

Ben Raue@benraue.com · last wk.

My first live show in Melbourne is now sold out, but lucky for you there's now a second show. -7pm, Wednesday 2nd December -Punters Club in Fitzroy -Guests @benitakolovos.bsky.social and @toddfarrell.bsky.social -Tickets $20 Please come along as we unpack whatever the hell just happened #springst

My first live show in Melbourne is now sold out, but lucky for you there's now a second show. -7pm, Wednesday 2nd December -Punters Club in Fitzroy -Guests @benitakolovos.bsky.social and @toddfarrell.bsky.social -Tickets $20 Please come along as we unpack whatever the hell just happened #springst

Second Tally Room Live show in Melbourne

The first Tally Room Live podcast recording in Melbourne, on Tuesday December 1, is now sold out! Thank you to everyone who bought tickets. I’ve been able to organise to stay in Melbourne for…

tallyroom.com.au

Don't worry Maddinson will save us.

An under-rated part of the JSJ story is how he ended up in parliament. He didn't win a contested party preselection for a winnable seat - he was the #3 on the WA Greens Senate ticket in 2016 behind Ludlam and Siewert. No Green has ever come close to being elected from #3 (or #2 in a half-Senate)

all time great merch here literally doesn't get better than this

Ben Raue@benraue.com · 3w ago

I'm making merch! Over the next two weeks you can pre-order a 'Waiting for the pre-polls" hat or a "Single Transferable Tote" bag, with orders closing November 2. Check it out now! www.tallyroom.com.au/68754

I'm making merch! Over the next two weeks you can pre-order a 'Waiting for the pre-polls" hat or a "Single Transferable Tote" bag, with orders closing November 2. Check it out now! www.tallyroom.com.au/68754

Grab the first ever Tally Room merch!

With the Victorian state election coming up, and the first Tally Room live show, I thought I would have a go at making some merchandise for the Tally Room. This is the first time we’ve ever d…

tallyroom.com.au

Today's blog post analyses the DemosAU MRP published earlier this week, which showed a small drop in One Nation's vote share producing a massive loss of seats. I explain where that comes from, and what it shows about the increased volatility of the Australian system www.tallyroom.com.au/68750

New DemosAU MRP – how a small swing costs a lot of seats

DemosAU has now published four MRP polls over the last year – the very large polls that involve projecting the result in every seat. DemosAU is one of two pollsters publishing regular MRPs, a…

tallyroom.com.au

Part 2 of my three-party electoral history podcast series 'Just Vote 1' is out now. This part covers the period from the 1950s to the 1990s, looking at DLP preferences, Whitlam moving for OPV, and preferences beginning to help Labor in the 90s.

Podcast #169 – Just Vote 1: Labor turns to OPV, and turns away

In the second part of ‘Just Vote 1’, Ben looks at the history of optional preferential voting from the 1950s to the 1990s: the role of DLP preferences in keeping Labor out of power, and…

tallyroom.com.au

Ben covers a lot in this, and some of the arguments are familiar. But not the anti-preselection stuff. We think the spectrum is rank and file ballot-party executive, but interwar conservatives disliked preselections as such.

Ben Raue@benraue.com · last mo.

Today I’m starting something new with the Tally Room podcast: a three-part history podcast looking at the history of OPV in Australia, rolling out over the next 3 weeks. This first episode looks at early debates on preferential voting and how it worked up to 1951. www.tallyroom.com.au/68638

I know the main headline here is PQ back in power and possibly a referendum to follow, but the 1a headline is absolutely that first past the post is not a great fit for politics in Quebec (and other provinces) at the moment.

Today I’m starting something new with the Tally Room podcast: a three-part history podcast looking at the history of OPV in Australia, rolling out over the next 3 weeks. This first episode looks at early debates on preferential voting and how it worked up to 1951. www.tallyroom.com.au/68638

Podcast #168 – Just Vote 1: The rise of preferential voting

In the first in a three-party election history series about Optional Preferential Voting called ‘Just Vote 1’, Ben explores the rise of preferential voting – how it happened, who …

tallyroom.com.au

Tickets are now on sale for the Tally Room live show in Melbourne on December 1 with @emilyrosefoley.bsky.social and @rachelwithers.bsky.social www.tallyroom.com.au/68665

Tickets on sale for Tally Room Live in Melbourne

The first Tally Room live podcast recording will be held on Tuesday December 1 in Melbourne, just days after the Victorian state election. Tickets are now on sale for the public. Spots are limited,…

tallyroom.com.au

Introducing the Poll Bludger's Victorian election guide and seats projection model. Current reading: L-NP 45, ALP 25, ON 15, GRN 3. pollbludger.net/2026/09/29/v...

David Shoebridge won the Greens leadership vote on first preferences, but the party announced the two-candidate-preferred result anyway. Gotta love the commitment to ranked choice voting

We would currently have a lot more art deco flats in Woollahra Council if not for 100 years of tradition of upholding bans explicitly initiated to keep the poors out. The street in Rose Bay mentioned at the end recently got declared a mid-rise zone by Minns under the LMR. 🎉

This week marks the end of Nick Xenophon's political party legacy (statewise atleast) as SA-Best has been voluntarily de-registered. As such, I've written an introspective on the party and Xenophon's time/legacy in politics. anthonyhistoryrant.blogspot.com/2026/09/a-re... #saparli #auspol 🗃️

Does anyone have any suggestions about how I could get a copy of this ad? From the 2001 QLD state election.

Excited to be in this line up and can’t wait to chat Vic election aftermath with these legends 🙂

Ben Raue@benraue.com · 2mo ago

I'm excited to announce I'll be hosting my first Tally Room live podcast recording in Melbourne on December 1 - three days after the Victorian state election - with guests @rachelwithers.bsky.social and Emily Foley. Tickets will be available for Patreon members next Monday www.tallyroom.com.au/68631

I'm excited to announce I'll be hosting my first Tally Room live podcast recording in Melbourne on December 1 - three days after the Victorian state election - with guests @rachelwithers.bsky.social and Emily Foley. Tickets will be available for Patreon members next Monday www.tallyroom.com.au/68631

Tally Room Live – after the Victorian election

I’m excited to announce I will be doing a live recording of the Tally Room podcast on the Tuesday after the Victorian state election, December 1, in Melbourne. The event will be held at the P…

tallyroom.com.au

The AEC has published the official numbers to be used for the federal redistribution of Queensland, so I've analysed which parts of the state are under quota or over quota. Suggestions can now be made, with a deadline of October 16.

Population figures published for QLD federal redistribution

The Australian Electoral Commission has officially opened the first round of submissions for the federal redistribution of Queensland. The state will maintain thirty electorates, but the current bo…

tallyroom.com.au

A statistic that haunts me because it is 100% true and shocking and useless in advocacy precisely because it is true and shocking: Policy that enables a 1-car lifestyle rather than 2 is equivalent to giving a family a $25,000 annual pay raise.

Peter Flax@pflax1.bsky.social · 2mo ago

This story buries the lede, but if you pull out a calculator and do the math, AAA found that the average American spends $15,031 a year for a single car! www.cnbc.com/2026/09/14/c...

Polls have closed for the by-election for the NT Assembly seat of Mulka. I am not properly liveblogging this result, but I might post briefly here. It is a very remote electorate where I expect a lot of votes to be cast at mobile booths, but there is one election day booth and two pre-poll booths.

After Victoria recently abolished group voting tickets (GVTs) for the state upper house, they are now doing the same for the City of Melbourne, the last public office to use the system. A good result!

The final blow to group voting tickets

A piece of legislation passed Victoria’s upper house last night that seems set to abolish the last use of group voting tickets for public office in Australia. Legislation making changes to lo…

tallyroom.com.au