dylan matthews

@dylanmatt.bsky.social

i write for vox

This post specifically really doesn't tell us about *higher* turnout effects either way, instead focusing on *all registered voters*. Plus, it shows declining dem % among registered nonvoters (54.5% in '20, 53.1% in '24)! Is this a dramatic shift? No, but it points to "nonvoters getting more R"

Adam Bonica@adambonica.bsky.social · last yr.

Our findings using CES data strongly affirm the post-election analysis and conclusions of @mikepod.bsky.social. Non-voters, particularly registered ones, lean Dem. The "high turnout hurts Dems" narrative isn't supported by the evidence and basing strategy on flawed ideas about non-voters is risky.

Rubio claims that @USAID lifesaving assistance for health and humanitarian needs will continue. But his team just communicated that the entire agency will be imminently reduced from 14,000 to 294 people. Just 12 in Africa.

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"Free trade agreements are..." A good way to create economic growth: 58% (+17) A dangerous threat to American jobs: 13% (-20) Unsure: 29% (+3) Innovative / Jan 24, 2025 / n=1007 (% Change With 2016)

A surprising number of people are like “I can abide murdering a health insurance CEO in cold blood in midtown Manhattan at point blank range. But retweeting Andrew Huberman after that NYMag story came out is a bridge too far…”

1 - article describes effective altruism as “the dominant way to think about charity” and worries about crowding out other giving. But EA is under 0.5% of US giving! Arts giving alone is 10-20x bigger. This is like complaining that art films are eating into Marvel's market share.

The concentration of heat-related mortality among younger people is quite disproportionate compared to other causes of death: Although just 16% of overall deaths from all causes are among under 35 year olds, 75% of heat-related deaths are among under 35 year olds

When talking impoundments, it's critical to note Nixon lost every single case in court that was decided on the merits - before the ICA was law. Some very limited historical impoundments happened - but were never challenged. As soon as they were challenged, courts said no even without the ICA.

THE NEW YORK TIMES: Globally, the Healthcare Profession is Under Siege From Left and Right "Bashar A., an optomestrist in the Damascus area, says that healthcare professionals are scared - events such as the recent shooting of the UHC CEO 'have us all on edge'"

What’s the most important choice in determining the social cost of carbon (SCC)? My #EconJMP shows that because deaths from emitting CO2 are large and concentrated in poor countries, valuing lives is the most consequential choice in determining the SCC in latest-gen models, more than discounting 🧵👇

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