🚨 Vacancies alert! We're currently hiring for three new roles. Applications for all three will close on September 19th. See details and how to apply here 👉 buff.ly/EjyZen5
Personal update: I'm joining the Bank of England for six months - stepping away from my Resolution Foundation desk. I will be tweeting a bit less while I’m heads-down on policy work, but will see you on the other side!
Chart-heavy thread incoming. This is an attempt to survey the research to answer the question - were the forecasts predicting a lot of Brexit damage correct? 1/n.
John Springford@johnspringford.bsky.social · last yr.The Constitution Society and Federal Trust asked me to do a survey of the evidence on the economics of Brexit, nine years on from the vote. Hopefully it's a helpful reference. Short answer: the consensus was right - a large hit to GDP, trade and investment. consoc.org.uk/publications...
Pay varies hugely across England: in 2024 weekly pay was just £610 in Liskeard to £1,130 in London. Is this because high‑earning areas attract inherently higher‑earning people, or because the jobs located there pay more to any worker? Our new @resfoundation.bsky.social report finds out.
🚨 New research published today Our latest report by Richmond Egyei @emilyfry.bsky.social @tasoskitsos.bsky.social @gthwaites.bsky.social @dalilariba.bsky.social & Enrico Vanino looks at the impact of place in regional inequality. Read more ⬇️ buff.ly/ycjN6KI
There's a really nice @productivity.bsky.social episode here on why trade is great for productivity, with @bartvanark.bsky.social interviewing @emilyfry.bsky.social and others Here's the Pocket Casts link pca.st/episode/ddfe...
Trade and UK Productivity: From Global Markets to Local Gains
pca.st
Yesterday’s US GDP release showed how businesses can quickly respond to tariff threats. Real US GDP fell 0.3% in Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024, dragged down by a surge in imports and inventories. The headline number is tricky to interpret, but it raises a question: is the UK part of this import surge?
Short piece out tonight on what tariffs mean for UK living standards (h/t @emilyfry.bsky.social & @gthwaites.bsky.social). Key point: tariffs hurt the economy and destroy good jobs outside London & SE, so expect a policy response. But big risk is this turns into a global recession.
Trump Tariff Turmoil • Resolution Foundation
President Trump’s tariff announcements have taken a wrecking ball to the global system of international trade, pushing US tariff rates back to early 20th century levels. Following the suspension of ‘r...
resolutionfoundation.org
There has been a lot of focus on the UK's direct export exposure to the US, but this chart is the one that worries me. In 2019, $24bn worth of UK motor vehicle value added ended up in the US via supply chains. That’s 22% of ALL Britain’s motor vehicle output.
🚨New today - @resfoundation.bsky.social latest research on who benefits from public services - and what it means for the Spending Review. 👇
Zachary Leather@zackleather.resolutionfoundation.org · last yr.New @resfoundation.bsky.social research out this morning from @emilyfry.bsky.social, @camronaref.bsky.social and I which uses the first ever comprehensive analysis of public service use across the income distribution to show how we can make public services better for low-to-middle income families.
The rare good-ish news story on the British economy—why Britain is surprisingly well-insulated from a tariff crash, at least compared to most of its peers: Part, but not all of the answer is in quite how much (un-tariffed) services dominate British exports. Link: www.economist.com/britain/202...
🚨Event tomorrow🚨 Public services are vital for families – providing ‘in kind’ benefits which provide a huge boost to the living standards of lower-income households. Sign-up for our event tomorrow to discuss future provision ➡️ buff.ly/OVqX64M
What should the government prioritise in the Spending Review? @camronaref.bsky.social, @zackleather.bsky.social & I built a distributional model of public services to help answer that. It's nerdy but also important. And we're discussing tomorrow 👇 www.resolutionfoundation.org/events/publi...
Making public services better for low-to-middle income families • Resolution Foundation
Despite the cuts announced in the Chancellor’s Spring Statement, spending on public services is set to be on average £43 billion higher over the years of the upcoming Spending Review, compared with wh...
resolutionfoundation.org
We have an excellent event tomorrow morning on how the Government can turnaround its economic policy at the Spending Review with David Gauke and Sandra McNally: www.resolutionfoundation.org/events/publi.... Will feature new work on who benefits from public services by @emilyfry.bsky.social.
Making public services better for low-to-middle income families • Resolution Foundation
Despite the cuts announced in the Chancellor’s Spring Statement, spending on public services is set to be on average £43 billion higher over the years of the upcoming Spending Review, compared with wh...
resolutionfoundation.org
With Trump's new tariffs coming into effect, how should the UK respond? In their piece from February, @emilyfry.bsky.social and @gthwaites.bsky.social suggested we should be cautious about retaliating. Read more➡️ buff.ly/9Z9LRmK
Brilliant rapid analysis of new US tariffs
Julian Hinz@julianhi.nz · last yr.🚨 KITE Insta-Analysis: New "reciprocal" US tariffs are serious. We ran both status quo (tariffs until April 2 incl. retaliation) and newly announced reciprocal tariff regime through the KITE model. (Non-) spoiler: 🇺🇸 hits itself the hardest. NB: Short-run, extremely ad-hoc. 1/n
Should the UK retaliate if Trump imposes tariffs? Economic case for retaliation is weak, but the political case is harder to judge. Hinges on whether you think retaliating creates leverage for future negotiations Overall, a tough decision and I could see it going either way
Today might be the day Donald Trump slaps tariffs on UK goods — because he thinks VAT is a tariff. Yes, he's wrong. But the reason *why* he's wrong is fun. So here's a 🧵 on the nerdy detail of VAT: via Jaffa Cakes and an economic theorem from 1936. buff.ly/6Lms19H
buff.ly
Key chart for Britain as we head into a tariff-ying April.
John Springford@johnspringford.bsky.social · last yr.Brexit has really hammered the UK car industry. Trump tariffs coming next. Another bump for my piece on wrong-headed minimising by Policy Exchange and Jeremy Hunt jspringford.substack.com/p/policy-exc...
Delayed UK trade data for Jan out today from ONS reports strong monthly growth in UK exports: goods +6.3% & services +1.9%. But, the bigger news is an upward revision to trade in 2023 & 2024: services exports were revised +7.3% (£34.3bn) in 2024, and services imports +5.7% (£17.1bn).
The big-picture outlook for living standards remains grim after the Chancellor’s Spring Statement. It’s particularly dismal for the poorer half of Britain, who are set to become £500 a year poorer over the Parliament. Here’s what you need to know 🧵 ⤵️ buff.ly/5CHyJII
The most extreme examples are couples on UC where one is disabled and the other cares for them. If the disabled member loses PIP eligibility, the other would lose the UC carer element and they would also likely lose from the UC health cut. The loss could total £10,300 by 2029-30 (current prices)
A couple of striking charts from our spending response to the Chancellor's Spring Statement yesterday. 1) Despite it being billed as a spending consolidation, real terms spending will be +£1.1 billion higher over the years of the 2025 Spending Review than it was expected to be in the Autumn Budget.
What should we make of yesterday's 'Pathways to Work' Green Paper? A quick thread based on today's @resfoundation.bsky.social response, with @alexclegg.bsky.social and @mikebrewerecon.bsky.social ...
We're hiring @resfoundation.bsky.social Find out more and apply to join us 👀 www.resolutionfoundation.org/about-us/opp...
Senior Economist or Senior Research and Policy Analyst • Resolution Foundation
The Resolution Foundation is looking for a thoughtful and committed individual to lead our work on housing. This is an exciting time to join the team as we work to keep living standards at the top of ...
resolutionfoundation.org
Good news for me: no 7am release tomorrow. Bad news for services trade data: no 7am release tomorrow.
Chris Giles@chrisgiles.ft.com · last yr.New UK tactic ALERT Make your trade data so terrible, Trump doesn't impose tariffs
Trump has increased steel & aluminium tariffs from 10% to 25% today, affecting UK exports. Some key points for British policy-makers to keep in mind…👇
The coming Spending Review is moment of extraordinary political peril Starmer's "less aid for more army" pivot is an attempt to dodge domestic cuts which would cause him more pain But—absent big moves on tax—such cuts may come soon anyway www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/693...
The Spending Review could sink Labour
Things looked dicey for Starmer before Europe’s Trump crisis, but the need for further cuts to fund defence could bring deeper political peril
prospectmagazine.co.uk