Charlie Robertson

@frontiercharlie.bsky.social

Frontier / emerging market obsessive, author The Time Travelling Economist which explains what Marx missed and when countries escape poverty from 1670 to 2070

πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Ή Tigrayan rebels in northern Ethiopia seized control of airports and battled federal troops in the neighbouring Afar region, multiple sources told AFP on Wednesday, as long-standing tensions spilled into open conflict ➑️ u.afp.com/S93d

Members of the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) walk along a main road in Mekelle, northern Ethiopia, on September 23, 2026, as tensions intensify after Tigrayan rebels seized control of airports in the region

For 50 years, new US Federal Reserve governors have all started with rate hikes. Feels like a mix of 1) coincidence, 2) establishing credibility and 3) successful governors don't get replaced? (This idea stolen from a pre-Warsh hike post I can't find, so apologies to someone)

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2) England is a rare exception. During the 2010s many other countries (including the other 3 UK nations) changed tack, experimenting with ideas like transferrable skills instead of focusing on tried-and-tested disciplines and methods. It looks like those experiments have failed.

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Tanzania is opening up its economy, this time to bond investors in local debt. Double digit yields, best credit rating in east Africa, and a fairly valued currency. But other East African trades are more enticing today

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Most African countries are winners from the new US tariff regime. Whole of South Asia is hit with 10% tariffs, but east Africa gets 0% and also has AGOA. A boost for Kenya whose exports to the US are already up 32%. North Africa, Angola, Nigeria and South Africa are hit but oil, gold etc exempt

I've been asked about the proposed Dangote oil refinery in Kenya and its economic impact This story cites Reuters saying it can do done in 3 years, Dangote saying 5 years. Nigeria experience suggests 10 years. So won't spend time on it, yet punchng.com/dangote-brea...

Dangote breaks ground on $17bn Kenya refinery

Dangote Industries Limited begins work on its $17bn, 700,000-bpd Kenya refinery, set to become East Africa's largest and reduce reliance on imported fuels.

punchng.com

Another big trade data discrepancy, this time in Senegal. Their trade data implies the trade deficit has narrowed nearly 90%, from nearly $7bn in mid-2024 to $0.7bn. But the rest of the world is reporting data suggesting Senegal has a $9bn trade deficit

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The energy market has transitioned from vicious cycle dynamics to virtuous ones: The fall in insurance premiums (FT reporting below) comes on top of normalizing production/shipment levels and high OPEC+ ceilings,exerting downward pressure on energy costs, with Brent oil now trading below $70 #energy

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Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman on what he calls the biggest energy security crisis the world has ever seen: β€œFor me, to be silent is an admission, a humble admission of the fact that I don’t know what will happen. 1/2

My new surprise looking at Africa's GDP figures: the biggest 10 countries account for 2/3 of GDP while the bottom half account for just 10% (the smallest 15 countries only 1.8%) Romania is bigger than any economy in Africa The continent as a whole is a little smaller than France (which is 7th)

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