πͺπΉ Tigrayan rebels in northern Ethiopia seized control of airports and battled federal troops in the neighbouring Afar region, multiple sources told AFP on Wednesday, as long-standing tensions spilled into open conflict β‘οΈ u.afp.com/S93d
Charlie Robertson
@frontiercharlie.bsky.social
Frontier / emerging market obsessive, author The Time Travelling Economist which explains what Marx missed and when countries escape poverty from 1670 to 2070
For 50 years, new US Federal Reserve governors have all started with rate hikes. Feels like a mix of 1) coincidence, 2) establishing credibility and 3) successful governors don't get replaced? (This idea stolen from a pre-Warsh hike post I can't find, so apologies to someone)
2) England is a rare exception. During the 2010s many other countries (including the other 3 UK nations) changed tack, experimenting with ideas like transferrable skills instead of focusing on tried-and-tested disciplines and methods. It looks like those experiments have failed.
Pollution levels in London after 10 years of advancing sustainable transport.
Fitch revised the outlook from stable to positive for Tanzania, on the B+ rating. Tanzania has the best sovereign ratings in east Africa. It's been helped by higher average gold prices, now the single biggest $ source for the country www.fitchratings.com/research/sov...
Oh, sorry, heβs Kenyan but studies in SA. Very self aware! www.instagram.com/reel/DVX3pyM...
Crazy Kennar π°πͺ on Instagram: "DIFFERENT AFRICAN COUNTRIES REACTING TO A BLACKOUT πππππππππ @happy_country_ #STANDAGAINSTDEPRESSION #crazykennarmakingthecountryhappy"
353K likes, 26K comments - crazy_kennar on March 1, 2026: "DIFFERENT AFRICAN COUNTRIES REACTING TO A BLACKOUT πππππππππ @happy_country_ #STANDAGAINSTDEPRESSION #crazykennarmakingthecountryhappy".
instagram.com
Comments say truth so who am I to judge? www.instagram.com/reel/DbkaD-3...
Crazy Kennar π°πͺ on Instagram: "PUBLIC TRANSPORT IN DIFFERENT AFRICAN CITIESππππππππ @happy_country_ Cameo @onlylitboyofficial #STANDAGAINSTDEPRESSION #crazykennarmakingthecountryhappy"
475K likes, 32K comments - crazy_kennar on August 3, 2026: "PUBLIC TRANSPORT IN DIFFERENT AFRICAN CITIESππππππππ @happy_country_ Cameo @onlylitboyofficial #STANDAGAINSTDEPRESSION #crazykennarmakingt...
instagram.com
Tanzania is opening up its economy, this time to bond investors in local debt. Double digit yields, best credit rating in east Africa, and a fairly valued currency. But other East African trades are more enticing today
Is there anything Trump could say to distract the news cycle if he'd been given the heads up on a Warsh rate hike ?
Trump's rhetoric on Fox News captivates viewers, yet its effectiveness in ending conflicts remains doubtful.
Somalia inflation 8.1% in June, in perhaps the market's least followed macro release. But at least they produce some data, unlike South Sudan since 2Q2025. Which makes forecasting South Sudan very interesting indeed :-)
Most African countries are winners from the new US tariff regime. Whole of South Asia is hit with 10% tariffs, but east Africa gets 0% and also has AGOA. A boost for Kenya whose exports to the US are already up 32%. North Africa, Angola, Nigeria and South Africa are hit but oil, gold etc exempt
Intersting piece by Bright Simons on Africaβs trade www.ft.com/content/5ae4...
Donβt blame colonialism for Africaβs trade woes
The continentβs growth is being hemmed in by blocked trade arteries, not arbitrary borders drawn in Berlin in 1885
ft.com
Iran, given the cost of rebuilding and its demographic structure, might never get rich. Like Sri Lanka and Thailand
For the second time in history, the Iranian currency has fallen below 1.9 million rials to one US dollar, trading near 1.91 million. This follows an all-time low of 1.92 million reached briefly in early May.
Another cut from DRCongo, this time 100bp to 12.5%. Rates were at 25% a year ago. #DRC www.bcc.cd/sites/defaul...
bcc.cd
Despite being an oil importing region and single B credits, now none of Tanzania, Uganda and Kenya have a running IMF deal, with the successful completion of this final review. It remains a backstop if we run into trouble www.imf.org/en/news/arti...
imf.org
I've been asked about the proposed Dangote oil refinery in Kenya and its economic impact This story cites Reuters saying it can do done in 3 years, Dangote saying 5 years. Nigeria experience suggests 10 years. So won't spend time on it, yet punchng.com/dangote-brea...
Dangote breaks ground on $17bn Kenya refinery
Dangote Industries Limited begins work on its $17bn, 700,000-bpd Kenya refinery, set to become East Africa's largest and reduce reliance on imported fuels.
punchng.com
1,759 cases so far in DRC, but new cases on Tuesday were around 50 (a monthly rate of 1,500) which may just be better data collection. Biggest outbreak in west Africa (2014+) reached nearly 29,000 cases. www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/...
Confirmed Ebola deaths in DR Congo hit 600
The number of deaths comes as healthcare workers threaten to walk off the job over a delay in payments.
aljazeera.com
Another big trade data discrepancy, this time in Senegal. Their trade data implies the trade deficit has narrowed nearly 90%, from nearly $7bn in mid-2024 to $0.7bn. But the rest of the world is reporting data suggesting Senegal has a $9bn trade deficit
The low fertility rate in #Bangladesh means it has had sufficient savings to invest and grow without eurobond issuance (unlike Latin America in the 20th century or Africa in the 21st century). But now the new govt is considerinng it - it would be low cost en.banglanews24.com/banglanews-s...
Bangladesh revisits sovereign bonds, mindful of Greece and Sri Lanka
Greece and Sri Lanka faced major crises involving sovereign debt and international bond repayments. However, both countries gradually began to recover from those crises under bailout facilities.
en.banglanews24.com
SocGen recommending Kenya infrastructure bonds, due to decreasing CBK rate hike risk, and yields are up vs pre-Hormuz closure. Makes sense for this year
Tanzania rate hike to 6.25pc was flagged by the central bank last month .. inflation still around target and GDP growth is goof www.bot.go.tz/Adverts/Pres...
bot.go.tz
TanzaniaπΉπΏ has raised its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 6.25% after inflation climbed to a three-year high of 4.2% in May, driven by higher fuel, fertiliser and other import costs linked to the Iran war.
The energy market has transitioned from vicious cycle dynamics to virtuous ones: The fall in insurance premiums (FT reporting below) comes on top of normalizing production/shipment levels and high OPEC+ ceilings,exerting downward pressure on energy costs, with Brent oil now trading below $70 #energy
π° #Finance "Critics dub Aliko Dangote a crony capitalist. He says he is pioneering Asian-style economic development"
How a $20bn bet paid off for Africaβs richest man
ft.com
Pretty amazing to see YoY Murban oil price rises of nearly 120% two months ago, and 49% YoY two weeks ago, become just +18% this morning .. and 12% for Brent.
Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman on what he calls the biggest energy security crisis the world has ever seen: βFor me, to be silent is an admission, a humble admission of the fact that I donβt know what will happen. 1/2
The Malawi fuel price here is what happens when a country runs out of strategic fuel reserves, and is already on the brink of default so canβt afford to subsidise
Protests spread in Africa as fuel crisis deepens - www.ft.com/content/273a... via @FT
My new surprise looking at Africa's GDP figures: the biggest 10 countries account for 2/3 of GDP while the bottom half account for just 10% (the smallest 15 countries only 1.8%) Romania is bigger than any economy in Africa The continent as a whole is a little smaller than France (which is 7th)
This appears to be such a misleading piece on the impact of Ebola. They cite an economic impact of $50bn when the three countries affected in 2014-15 had a combined GDP of $17bn. pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38299454/
The economic burden of Ebola virus disease: a review and recommendations for analysis - PubMed
The severe impact of EVD puts pressure on governments and the international community for better resource utilization and re-allocation. Several technical and methodological issues related to economic...
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
I do meet a lot of Nigerians in London, but did not realise the UK is responsible for 2/3 of global "inward personal transfers" to Nigeria, at $12bn of $19bn in total in 2023