Gemma Tetlow

@gemmatetlow.bsky.social

Chief Economist, Institute for Government Formerly Economics Correspondent at the Financial Times and Programme Director at the Institute for Fiscal Studies

A strong OBR is in everyone’s interests In our latest comment, @gemmatetlow.bsky.social tells us why replacing Richard Hughes with someone seen as more compliant to the government’s views would bring a high cost to the government and the country www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/stro...

A strong OBR is in everyone’s interests | Institute for Government

The chancellor should appoint a strong chair of the Office for Budget Responsibility to replace Richard Hughes.

instituteforgovernment.org.uk

LIVE BLOG | Autumn budget 2025 🚨 As Rachel Reeves prepares to announce tax measures, what formal announcements have we had so far and what can we expect in the next 24 hours? Follow our live blog for our analysis of the chancellor's plans www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/live-blog/au...

LIVE BLOG | Autumn budget 2025: Rachel Reeves prepares to announce tax measures | Institute for Government

IfG experts analyse Reeves' budget and explore what the chancellor's plans for the economy, tax and spending mean.

instituteforgovernment.org.uk

Hot on the heels of yesterday's Covid inquiry report on decision making, @shaina-sangha.bsky.social and I have a new report out today looking at how combined epidemiological-economic modelling could help government better prepare for future pandemics www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...

Combined epidemiological and economic modelling | Institute for Government

The pandemic showed the need for government to improve its use of modelling.

instituteforgovernment.org.uk

NEW: Labour inherited public services in crisis. Performance had fallen, investment had been cut + spending plans were undeliverable. It's made some progress, providing stability and positive long-term plans. But it has been undermined by poor prep in opposition and lack of co-ordination in govt 🧵

RAG table showing ratings for 9 public services. It includes the following summaries for progress since the 2024 election:
General practice - Progress on salaried GPs, but no steps taken to make partnership more attractive
Hospitals - Government has set out high-level ambitions and reduced competing priorities, but no detail of implementation
Adult social care - Largely ignored. Ending the care visa route without a workable solution for Fair Pay Agreements could cause workforce shortages
Children's social care - Government has set out a clear and ambitious vision for reform and has backed it with relatively generous funding
Homelessness - Early signs are encouraging, but government has yet to set out its homelessness strategy
Schools - Government's plan to reduce inequalities in schools and tackle teacher shortages are unclear, and the crisis in SEND services casts a long shadow
Police - Government has made limited progress in increasing neighbourhood officer numbers and has yet to announce details of planned reforms
Criminal Courts - Increasing court sitting days was welcome, if done too late, but the government has yet to announce a longer-term plan
Prisons - Rapid action addressed the immediate population crisis, but there has been limited progress towards a longer-term solution

Here's a chart of the marginal tax rate for someone with two kids. They pay 53% tax on every £ they earn between £60k and £80k. 62% on every £ they earn between £100k and £125k. 9% more if they've a student loan This is from our tax calculator: buff.ly/CFoExUX

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