Hooper

@hooperhooper.bsky.social

UNC History PhD candidate. Historian of gay rights activism and lesbian-feminism, student activism in the gay liberation era, and the 1970s South. NC born/raised/now. he/him ⚣

I would characterize the overwhelming youth vote for Democrats as evidence of the politicization of young people, rather than saying they are “fed up with politics.” The interviews here suggest those politics are not easily reducible, but class issues seem central. www.nytimes.com/2026/11/06/u...

Fed Up With Politics and Struggle, Young Voters Rose Up

Young people powered Democratic candidates, joining global demands for generational change from a cohort weary of older people sitting on jobs and devouring resources.

nytimes.com

Chuck Hubbard, who just scored one of the biggest house upsets last night in ousting Granny Demon from Hell Virginia Foxx, apparently opened nearly every campaign event with this anecdotes about protecting the rights of his lesbian daughter. He's delightful

annoying that the NYT and others keep being like "this historic win by Democrats is so surprising in this polarized era of partisan politics" well babes maybe actual human persons aren't that polarized...

All eyes on Texas, where Democrats may have a clean sweep in statewide elections and even an outside chance to control the lower chamber of the legislature. I anticipate a real battle over higher ed policy. And remember some of the major universities have real MAGA believers on administration.

GOP Rep. Erin Paré has conceded defeat to Democrat Winn Decker in the NC House District 37 race. With Rep. Mike Schietzelt also trailing, there would no longer be any Republicans left in the Wake County delegation in the General Assembly. #ncpol #wakepol

We're seeing photos of long lines already. Please stay in line and cast your ballot. Don’t let the lines or wait discourage you. Your right to vote is too important! If you need assistance, call the voter protection hotline at (888)-300-4350. #MississippiMatters

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Once mass spam texts were made legal, younger donors vanished, leaving a grassroots fundraising machine that subsists on squeezing vulnerable seniors, some of whom give hundreds of times a day. It’s a horrific model. Consultants get generationally wealthy, and the party hollows out its future.

"Democrats traded their younger donors for squeezed seniors," showing the share of the party’s small-dollar donations (under $200) from 2012 to 2026. The subtitle reads: "In 2026, about 175,000 squeezed seniors — donors 65 and older charged 50 or more times in a cycle — supplied 51% of those donations. Gen X, Millennials and Gen Z, roughly 63% of registered Democrats, supplied 15%."
Two lines track donation shares from 2012 to 2026:
"Squeezed seniors" (orange line) starts around 9% in 2012, rises to 30% in 2018 and 2020, then jumps sharply to 45% in 2022, 47% in 2024, and 51% in 2026.
"Gen X, Millennials & Gen Z" (green line) starts around 17% in 2012, peaks around 33% in 2020, and then drops sharply to 18% in 2022, 19% in 2024, and 15% in 2026.
A vertical dashed line at April 2021 is labeled: "The Supreme Court (Facebook v. Duguid) clears the way for mass fundraising texts, piled on top of the email spam already flooding inboxes."
Footnote: "Shares are by number of donations. By dollars, squeezed seniors gave 39% of small-dollar money in 2026 and Gen X, Millennials and Gen Z gave 18%. Squeezed seniors are donors 65 and older charged 50 or more times in an election cycle. 2026 is mid-cycle.
Jake Grumbach@jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 2w ago

We found that as of right now 73% of your campaign donation goes back to the consultants and vendors (!!!), four times more than just 20 years ago. Only 13% to ads. Even I was shocked.

Where your $100 donation actually goes
Of every $100 raised by a Democratic fundraising text, $73 goes to consultants and vendors. Only $13 reaches voters as advertising — the most expensive dollar to raise in American politics.
Consultants & vendors
• Advertising, staff & admin |
Your donation
$100
Fundraising fees
-$65
$35 left
Strategic consultants
-$2
$33 left
Media placement commission
-$6
$73
of every $100 goes to consultants & vendors
$27 left
Advertising
-$13
$14 left
Staff, travel & admin
-$14
$0 left
Note: Shares are for a dollar raised by a Democratic fundraising text or email.
Source: Authors' analysis of FEC disbursement records.

Worth watching this emerging story: Wedgewood Polls alleged to be fake; has been picked up & amplified/integrated by established sources & other pollsters; may be tied to prediction market trading; is likely to throw doubt upon current poll numbers (which will feed "rigged election" rumors later).

Ross Dahlke@rossdahlke.bsky.social · 3w ago

After Median Strategies' fake polls and Wedgewood Polls rumors, I started collecting data to study how "real" versus "fake" polls affect election-market prices on Polymarket. Was hoping to have until after the election to finish the preprint...but some preliminary analysis:

Grid of 25 line charts, one per fabricated poll posted by Wedgewood Polls (navy) or Median Strategies (salmon) between June and October 2026. Each line shows the Polymarket price of the candidate or party the poll put ahead, from 12 hours before to 24 hours after the post, marked by a dashed line. Each title gives the race and date, the poll's result, its margin compared with the average of other polls from the prior two weeks, and whose price is shown. Most lines move only a cent or two around the post.

UNC signs deal to end federal probes and keep funding. In exchange, UNC will add antisemitism measures, training and sanctions for student groups. UNC must bar identity-concealing masks and require colorblind admissions. (Via Jane Winik Sartwell) www.newsobserver.com/news/local/e... #ncpol #nced

UNC signs deal to end federal probes and keep funding. What it’ll do in exchange

UNC will remain eligible for federal funding, admit no wrongdoing, and pay nothing. The agreement was announced Monday.

newsobserver.com

In this explosive follow up to the story about the American Historical Association's use of DC lobbyists to silence AHA member Palestine advocacy, we have this: AHA is conducting a witchhunt of its Council. Loyalty oaths. Lawyers. Threats. Authoritarian behavior. www.chronicle.com/article/the-...

Opinion | The AHA Goes Ballistic

In response to internal leaks, the scholarly organization spies on members and imposes loyalty oaths.

chronicle.com

Wake Co N.C. early voting Mon 10/19 21,776 votes cast, up 73.7% from same day in 2022. 5-day cumulative total 87,762. 157 same-day registrations Monday, cumulative total 555. Lots of data in images. #ncpol

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