The past few years have been an explicit test of two theories of how to win back AfD voters: first, the CDU just needed to pivot to the hard right under Merz and second that the Linke as a party was too woke and needed to turn to workerist anti-migrant nationalism via BSW. Both failed.

Marcel Dirsus@marceldirsus.com · yesterday

The latest poll for Saxony-Anhalt has the far-right at 41%. If some of the smaller parties (SPD, Greens, BSW) don't clear the threshold to enter parliament, the far-right may gain an absolute majority in September.

Regime change from the air has a record unbroken by success.

1/5 Iceland’s defence posture is often described as settled: NATO + the US Defence Agreement. Our Varða roundtable asked a blunter question: are those guarantees merely fractured or already broken? (Link in 5/5.)

A view from next door to Greenland. A brief analytical note on the shock, strategic signalling, and the implications for Iceland. Written for Varða. varda.beehiiv.com/p/var-a-brie... #Greenland #HighNorth #Iceland #SecurityPolicy #Geopolitics

Varða Briefing #3: The Greenland Shock

The Greenland shock and the questions it has made more urgent in Reykjavik; Iceland-Germany defence tempo, Nordic-Baltic cyberplatform and more.

varda.beehiiv.com

Welcome, American foreign policy scholars to the world of Russia experts in late 2021 and early 22, when so many people could not bring themselves to believe that a war would happen simply because it made no sense, there was no real threat, the President wasn't *that* crazy and didn't roll that way

"What matters most in democracies...is not the pope’s teaching. It is his mode of leadership. Shorn of its temporal power and its ability to command obedience, the papacy is a display of manners. The pope acts out an idea of what good authority looks like."

Can the Church Evolve? | Fintan O’Toole

The big question for Pope Leo XIV is whether he will complete Pope Francis’s mission to make the Catholic Church less tyrannical.

nybooks.com

Everyone in the past was neurotypical, which is how we got things like this single-author, eight-volume encyclopedia of ferns

If Iceland succeeds in this and weaponises the magma, Iceland can become NATO’s security guarantor with an extended magma deterrence. Tired: nuclear deterrence Wired: magma fælingarmátt

Iceland scientists want to drill a hole straight into a reservoir of molten magma about a mile underground. It could generate limitless energy.

This will be the first time a group purposefully drills into a magma chamber, the pool of molten rock in the Earth's crust.

businessinsider.com

Another interesting observation from Rawls

In September 2023, I spent a week in Greenland on a study trip. I still remember the discussions with political representatives. They all spoke of their high regard for the US. And that is exactly what the Trump administration is now destroying. They had so much soft power there, all gone.

Blown away by this erudite book by @valentimvicente.bsky.social 🤯 An exceptional combination of theoretical sophistication and empirical breadth and depth. His theory of normalization not just helps explain recent rise of far right but also warns for overestimating strength of democracy.

"...the anti-immigrant campaigns of both centrist parties...did not win over any far-right voters. Nor did they inspire their core voters. To do that, they will need their own ideas and priorities, which means looking beyond immigration (which was only the third most important issue for voters..."

Germany has swung to the right. What does that mean for the country – and Europe? Our panel responds

Friedrich Merz’s CDU/CSU may have won the German election, but all eyes are on the far-right AfD after its huge gains, say Fatma Aydemir, Katja Hoyer and others

theguardian.com

Out of ideas: The emptiest of slogans “More for you, better for Germany” and the German flag. #SPD is cooked.

Norms don't just "erode;" democracies don't just "slide." It's conscious destruction and direction. Actors have agency. Which means: One can hold particular people accountable. "Processes," not so much.

Meeting between the pro-Kurdish party MPs and Ocalan is over. Reportedly, Ocalan said that he may be prepared to call for the PKK to lay down arms. He has not done so yet but he said that he was “qualified and determined to make the necessary positive contribution to the new 1/5

Gönül Tol@gonultol.bsky.social · 2y ago

A significant day for Turkish politics. Turkish government allowed members of parliament from the pro-Kurdish party to visit the PKK’s imprisoned leader Ocalan. MPs are seeing him today. Ocalan’s message to the party and Kurds holds importance for what comes next in Turkish politics and ++

paradigm that Mr. Bahceli and Mr. Erdogan have empowered.”Ocalan refers to Erdogan’s key ally Bahceli’s call on him to urge the PKK to end the group's decades-old insurgency. Optimists think Turkey may be on the eve of a “Kurdish peace process.” 2/5

Reading between the lines of Ocalan’s statement suggests two problems ahead for the Erdogan-Bahceli coalition: 1. Ocalan talks about peace and brotherhood, just like Erdogan and Bahceli but unlike them he also talks about democracy, something the ruling coalition is not interested in.

Gönül Tol@gonultol.bsky.social · 2y ago

Meeting between the pro-Kurdish party MPs and Ocalan is over. Reportedly, Ocalan said that he may be prepared to call for the PKK to lay down arms. He has not done so yet but he said that he was “qualified and determined to make the necessary positive contribution to the new 1/5

#Syria: “It looks more like a managed transition than a revolution.” Years of analysis and Syrian-led proposals could shape what comes next—if HTS opens the door. @verfassungsblog.de @meyer-resende.bsky.social @democracyreporting.bsky.social #transitionaljustice

Verfassungsblog@verfassungsblog.de · 2y ago

Syria is facing massive political upheaval after the fall of dictator Bashar al-Assad. What could the political transition phase look like, and what role does the Constitution play? #FiveQuestions to @meyer-resende.bsky.social of @democracyreporting.bsky.social: verfassungsblog.de/it-looks-mor...

Alawites: their history, beliefs, and role in Syria’s complex sectarian fabric. This thoughtful, comprehensive lecture by Dr. Yasir Qadhi not only deepens understanding but also highlights the immense task ahead for reconciliation.

The History and Beliefs of The Nusayri/Alawite Sect in Syria

YouTube video by Yasir Qadhi

youtube.com

Alex de Waal's piece on the ICC warrants for Netanyahu lays it out straight. It dives into how this case tests #sovereignty and #justice—and why the political and legal stakes are far from settled. #ICC @londonreview.bsky.social

Alex de Waal | ICC: Most Wanted

Seventeen years ago, Luis Moreno Ocampo, the first person to hold the post of prosecutor at the International Criminal...

lrb.co.uk

Iceland is on the verge of something historic—a coalition government led by three women from the Social Democrats, Liberal Reform Party, and People’s Party. With the President (also a woman) poised to confirm the coalition, it would be a global first. 🧵 1/11 #Democracy #Iceland

www.opendemocracy.net/en/georgian-... This piece, by Prof. Stephen Jones, is a better 'take' on events in Georgia than many others because it puts events in their Georgian context rather than simplified, reified geopolitical frames. #Georgia

Are we seeing a new revolution in Georgia?

The Georgian Dream government tried shifting to Russia – but now face a popular uprising and constitutional crisis

opendemocracy.net

The beginnings of the coalition of the willing …

Toomas Hendrik Ilves@ilvestoomas.bsky.social · 2y ago

www.government.se/statements/2...

Testing the waters on 🦋! I untangle how societies rebuild trust after crises and what governance means in turbulent times. Lately, I’ve been exploring Nordic security and nerding out on constitutional change. Could be worth a follow. Or not. Just putting it out there—newbies gotta start somewhere.