Check out my new report, which examines Ukraine's battlefield innovations, how Kyiv is reshaping the terms of its defense partnerships, and why military hardware transfers far more readily than the operational experience needed to make it work. tdcenter.org/2026/07/21/u...

The Arsenal of Experience: Ukraine’s Emerging Role as a Security Provider in Europe and Beyond

Transatlantic Dialogue Center (TDC) is a non-governmental and non-partisan think tank that provides high-quality policy advice to private and public clients. The network of our friends and partners in...

tdcenter.org

"NATO 3.0 fails not because it asks Europeans to do more, but because it never defines what they are supposed to do more of, or why," Council Vice President of Research for Security and Defense @atabatabai.bsky.social and @j-dren.bsky.social write in @lawfaremedia.org. More analysis ⤵️

NATO 3.0: A Tagline in Search of a Concept

Force Posture Decisions Have Become Another Coercive Tool in the Trump Administration’s Alliance Management Toolkit

lawfaremedia.org

"NATO 3.0 fails not because it asks Europeans to do more, but because it never defines what they are supposed to do more of, or why, and because it has made force posture an instrument of political coercion rather than strategic planning," writes @j-dren.bsky.social and @atabatabai.bsky.social.

NATO 3.0: A Tagline in Search of a Concept

Force Posture Decisions Have Become Another Coercive Tool in the Trump Administration’s Alliance Management Toolkit

lawfaremedia.org

@atabatabai.bsky.social and I examine how Ukraine-Gulf counter-drone cooperation may be the first visible node in a new network emerging among U.S. partners-one Washington didn't design and doesn't yet know how to engage. The U.S. should figure out how to be a proactive participant in that network.

War on the Rocks@warontherocks.bsky.social · 4mo ago

Allies are finding faster, more relevant ways to collaborate without waiting for Washington.

"Rather than fragmenting the EU and empowering nationalist governments, U.S. interventions have thus far helped further consolidate Europe’s political identity and commitment to greater strategic autonomy vis-a-vis the United States," writes @j-dren.bsky.social and @atabatabai.bsky.social.

U.S. Meddling in European Domestic Politics Is Backfiring

Hungary’s April election was the clearest test—and failure—of Trump’s Europe strategy.

lawfaremedia.org

On Rational Security, @sranderson.bsky.social sat down with @nkorpett.bsky.social, @atabatabai.bsky.social and Joel Braunold to talk through the week’s big national security news stories, including the war with Iran, the U.S.-European transatlantic relationship, and more. youtu.be/XOS-Kxz0K-Y

A pattern of U.S. policy swings across administrations in recent decades have altered how allies view U.S. credibility and engagement with NATO. @j-dren.bsky.social and @atabatabai.bsky.social explore how the alliance can function under persistent uncertainty.

The Transatlantic Relationship You Knew Is Gone

NATO can be recast, not restored.

lawfaremedia.org

On March 2, French President Emmanuel Macron laid out his vision for the future of nuclear deterrence in Europe. @atabatabai.bsky.social and @j-dren.bsky.social explore what this plan to decrease Europe's reliance on U.S. extended deterrence means for the transatlantic relationship.

The Europeanization of Deterrence

What Macron’s Ile Longue speech means for transatlantic nuclear strategy.

lawfaremedia.org

Trump’s attempts to dominate allies come with many costs and few benefits, write @atabatabai.bsky.social and @j-dren.bsky.social.

Understanding Trump’s Coercive Foreign Policy

Trump’s attempts to dominate allies come with many costs and few benefits.

lawfaremedia.org

For this second installment in our @lawfaremedia.org series on Trump's coercive approach to NATO, @j-dren.bsky.social & I look at how Russia views the tensions within the alliance. The acute phase of the Greenland crisis may be over (for now), but Russia will keep benefiting from it.

Lawfare@lawfaremedia.org · 7mo ago

While the internal crisis within NATO over Greenland appears to have passed, the damage to the alliance's cohesion may have lasting impact—and directly benefit Russia. @j-dren.bsky.social and @atabatabai.bsky.social explore the resulting short- and long-term effects of the crisis.

While the internal crisis within NATO over Greenland appears to have passed, the damage to the alliance's cohesion may have lasting impact—and directly benefit Russia. @j-dren.bsky.social and @atabatabai.bsky.social explore the resulting short- and long-term effects of the crisis.

NATO’s Loss Is Russia’s Gain

Russia is reaping the benefits while the United States undermines NATO from within.

lawfaremedia.org

This is the first in a series of @lawfaremedia.org articles @j-dren.bsky.social and I have coming out that look at the implications of the administration's coercive approach to alliances in general and NATO in particular. Stay tuned:

Lawfare@lawfaremedia.org · 8mo ago

The Trump administration's continued attacks on NATO may cause long term damage to U.S. security if allies downgrade their cooperation with the U.S. @j-dren.bsky.social and @atabatabai.bsky.social explain the benefits that NATO allies provide that would significantly harm U.S. security if lost.

The Trump administration's continued attacks on NATO may cause long term damage to U.S. security if allies downgrade their cooperation with the U.S. @j-dren.bsky.social and @atabatabai.bsky.social explain the benefits that NATO allies provide that would significantly harm U.S. security if lost.

The United States Without Europe

How a shattered NATO would undermine U.S. security.

lawfaremedia.org

On Lawfare Daily, @mollyroberts.bsky.social sat down with @atabatabai.bsky.social, and @j-dren.bsky.social to discuss the crisis over President Trump's threats to annex Greenland and its implications for the United States and NATO. www.lawfaremedia.org/article/lawf...

On Lawfare Daily, @atabatabai.bsky.social spoke to John Drennan and Matthew Sharp about New START, the last bilateral nuclear arms control treaty between the United States and Russia, the implications of its expiration in Feb. 2026, and where the arms control regime might go from here.