UK (GB), More in Common: Andy Burnham as leader of the Labour Party LAB-S&D: 30% (+8) REFORM~NI: 27% (-2) CON~ECR: 20% (+1) LDEM-RE: 11% (-2) GREENS-G/EFA: 7% (-4) SNP-G/EFA: 3% +/- vs. Starmer as leader of the Labour Party Fieldwork: May 2026 ➤ europeelects.eu/uk

One of the biggest misses in our (otherwise very accurate) 2017 YouGov MRP was sitting Cabinet ministers, many of whom significantly outperformed our estimates. It’s probably the reasons Amber Rudd managed to hold on in Hastings despite the model suggesting otherwise.

My research on understanding Labour's losses in the local elections was published by @labourlist.bsky.social today. You can read the article here: labourlist.org/2026/05/why-...

'Why these local election were so tough for Labour' - LabourList

The coalition which carried Labour into power may already be gone for good. Lessons from the local elections.

labourlist.org

Can Labour improve its poll ratings by going in a more progressive direction? - Yes. My research showing this was published by the Fabians last week. Click the link to go to the report. fabians.org.uk/publication/...

Uneven ground | Fabian Society

Fabian Society

fabians.org.uk

My analysis of Labour's problems has been published by the @thefabians.bsky.social . Lost support has mostly gone to left-liberal parties. To regain support, I argue Labour needs to go in a more progressive direction & create a progressive coalition to beat Reform. fabians.org.uk/publication/...

Uneven ground | Fabian Society

Fabian Society

fabians.org.uk

How do we rebuild Labour’s electoral coalition? 🗳️🌹 The 2024 election saw Labour win a landslide, built on targeting key voters in marginal seats. In this pamphlet, @jamespren.bsky.social examines why Labour has struggled to hold its coalition and how a progressive one could be built.

My Article on how NHS waiting times are improving within Hastings & St Leonards was published in the Hastings Independent. It can be viewed in the following link: www.capturepolitics.co.uk/post/east-su...

East Sussex sees strong NHS Improvements

This article outlines the major improvements within the Sussex NHS trust 2025. It uses data from the trust to outline the improvements.

capturepolitics.co.uk

📊 Ref lead of 7pts Westminster voting intention REF: 28% (-2) CON: 21% (+2) LAB: 20% (-2) GRN: 13% (+2) LDEM: 12% (-1) via @Moreincommon_, 13 - 16 Mar Chgs. w/ 09 Mar britainelects.com

Britain Elects | Substack

Cutting through the noise with Ben Walker. Click to read Britain Elects, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.

britainelects.com

Westminster Voting Intention: RFM: 29% (-2) LAB: 21% (+2) CON: 18% (-2) GRN: 12% (=) LDM: 10% (-2) Via @survation.bsky.social, 5 Mar. Changes w/ 28-28 Jan.

labourlist.org/2026/03/gort...

'Labour's problem isn't the Green Party - it's complacency' - LabourList

The Gorton and Denton result is not a crisis. It is a warning. Progressive voters cannot be taken for granted. The Greens are not the enemy. Complacency is.

labourlist.org

Westminster Voting Intention: RFM: 27% (-5) LAB: 20% (=) CON: 18% (+1) GRN: 14% (+1) LDM: 12% (+1) Via BMG Research, 4-5 Mar. Changes w/ 28-29 Jan.

Unpopular opinion, but people should be equally concerned about keeping Reform and Greens out when voting. One would damage the social fabric, the other the economic.

📊 Ref lead of 12pts Westminster voting intention REF: 30% (-1) CON: 18% (+2) LAB: 18% (-5) GRN: 13% (-) LDEM: 12% (+2) via @OpiniumResearch, 25 - 27 Feb Chgs. w/ 06 Feb britainelects.com

Britain Elects | Substack

Cutting through the noise with Ben Walker. Click to read Britain Elects, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.

britainelects.com

No, labour voters and the majority of their recent losses disagree with these policies and don't like the rhetoric either.

I have recently published an article on the Sussex NHS Trust, seeing strong improvements. It made the front page of the Hastings Independent. Click the link to read the article online. It reflects wider trend of improvments within the NHS in England. www.capturepolitics.co.uk/post/east-su...

East Sussex sees strong NHS Improvements

This article outlines the major improvements within the Sussex NHS trust 2025. It uses data from the trust to outline the improvements.

capturepolitics.co.uk

The recent by election reveals the increasing anger and division driving British politics.

How can people be expected to vote tactically in such a contest? This poll can't tell us who is in front due to 3 leading parties being within the margin of error. The voting system we have is increasingly challenged by how voters are dividing into small groups across multiple parties.

🚨 NEW: The latest Gorton and Denton by-election poll 🟢 GRN - 28% 🔴 LAB - 28% ➡️ REF - 27% 🔵 CON - 6% 🔶 LD - 4% ⚪ Other - 6% Via Opinium, 401 sample, 16–24 Feb

An article I wrote on the housing crisis within Hastings that was recently published in the Hastings Independent www.capturepolitics.co.uk/post/fixing-...

Fixing Hastings’ Housing crisis – a huge challenge.

Hastings Borough Council (HBC) has recently set out its desire to formulate a housing strategy that will address Hastings’ housing crisis. With an experienced and knowledgeable team forming to provide...

capturepolitics.co.uk

Thanks to everyone who engaged with my blog outlining deprivation in Hastings; it now has over 1,000 views. I am currently selling a book that explores housing, poverty, education, health and environmental problems in Hastings. This can be ordered through Amazon. www.amazon.co.uk/Fixing-Hasti...

A blog summarising my research on deprivation in Hastings and how it has increased. It contains visualisations outlining how inequality varies across the town, with the option to make these maps interactive for those interested. www.capturepolitics.co.uk/post/depriva...

Deprivation in Hastings & why it is increasing

"28,500 people in Hastings live within the most deprived (top 10%) neighbourhood areas of England."The latest wave indices of Deprivation was released at the end of October, and it reported that Hasti...

capturepolitics.co.uk

Enjoyed selling copies of my book at the makers fair this weekend.

🚨Data Update 🚨 We are pleased to release an updated version of the 2024 BES Face-to-Face Post-Election Survey dataset (v1.0.1) that includes improved versions of two important survey weights (wt_demog and wt_vote) based on new estimates of the VEP. www.britishelectionstudy.com/2024-general...

The most recent voting intention of 2024 Labour voters, according to the British Election Study. It shows Labour has lost 20% to "undecided" people, 18.5% to Left-Liberal parties & 10.5% to Right-Authoritarian parties. Full report here: lnkd.in/eabH8EUC

Out of all 2024 Labour voters, only those lost to Reform mostly perceive migration as a negative. Those lost to the Greens and Lib-Dems more often view it as a positive or are indifferent. Labour conference could be used to change tone on migration debate as many of its base would support this.

I'm pleased with the two books I bought today. Judith Dench is for book group. @jamespren.bsky.social author of Fixing Hastings and Rye, was busy at #hastingsbookfest hosted by the #ObserverBuilding His insight and policy prescriptions for #Hastings and #Rye will be valuable to our community.

The most recent voting intention of 2024 Labour voters according to the British Election Study - Wave 30 (2025). It shows Labour has lost 20% to "undecided" people, 18.5% to Left-Liberal parties & 10.5% to Right-Authoritarian parties. It highlights the fragmentation of British politics nicely.

A short article I wrote on the housing crisis in Hastings & St Leonards. It goes through the latest data available (mostly obtained from HBC) and outlines the scale of the challenge the council faces. www.capturepolitics.co.uk/post/fixing-...

Fixing Hastings’ Housing crisis – a huge challenge.

Hastings Borough Council (HBC) has recently set out its desire to formulate a housing strategy that will address Hastings’ housing crisis. With an experienced and knowledgeable team forming to provide...

capturepolitics.co.uk

The Conservative vote splintered across multiple parties in the last election, with it mostly going to Reform. Labour's vote this parliament is fragmenting but mostly in the other direction (with the Lib-Dems and the Greens being the main beneficiaries).

Westminster Voting Intention: RFM: 30% (-1) LAB: 24% (-1) CON: 18% (+1) LDM: 12% (+1) GRN: 9% (-1) SNP: 3% (+1) Via @opiniumresearch.bsky.social, 11-13 Jun. Changes w/ 28-30 May.