Jamie Hannaford

@jamiehannahydro.bsky.social

Hydrologist, UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH) Visiting Associate Prof, ICARUS Maynooth, Ireland Hydrological variability (floods and droughts) past, present and future!

I have a new piece out in Nature today on the record-breaking 2026/2027 El Niño, what impacts we should expect, and how governments can prepare. The Niño3.4 region is currently running more than 1C hotter than any prior event on record, and we remain months away from the peak www.nature.com/artic...

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As could be expected, the extremely warm waters of the Mediterranean - due to the record hot summer of 2026 - now lead to unprecedented rainfall, with flooding as a result. 70 mm is more than a month's worth of rain in Valencia, now delivered in 30 minutes. Try adapting to that. #climatechange

HydrologyNL@hydrology.nl · 4w ago

Avamet (Associació Valenciana de Meteorologia, Spain) clocked unprecedented torrential downpours of over 70 mm of rain in just 30 minutes. www.rtve.es/noticias/202...

Global drought shows no detectable recent acceleration under climate warming ->Nature | More on "Global drought trends and climate change" at BigEarthData.ai | #Climate #Drought #Water

Global drought shows no detectable recent acceleration under climate warming

Drought is a major constraint on freshwater availability, ecosystem functioning, and food security1,2,3,4, and its evolution under global warming remains a central concern in climate impact assessments5,6,7. Numerous studies have reported increasing drought severity and expanding drought-affected areas over recent decades8,9,10,11,12, drawing on converging evidence from multivariate atmospheric drought indices, which combine precipitation with atmospheric evaporative demand (potential evapotranspiration (PET), calculated from near-surface atmospheric variables) to infer surface drought conditions5,11,13, together with independent, hydrological evidence such as observation-calibrated soil moisture reconstructions14, remotely sensed terrestrial water storage15, and observed streamflow declines16. However, substantial quantitative uncertainties remain specifically in the magnitude of drought trends inferred from PET-based drought indices, as such inferences depend critically on how atmospheric evaporative demand is estimated17,18,19,20. Given that PET-based indices remain among the most widely used tools for characterizing large-scale, long-term drought variability owing to their global data coverage and standardized formulation, these uncertainties arguably affect our ability to anticipate future hydroclimatic impacts and complicate downstream adaptation decision-making. Beyond the qualitative consensus of drought intensification, whether hydroclimatic extremes are accelerating (i.e., intensifying at an increasing rate) has recently emerged as a pertinent scientific question, motivated by two related lines of evidence: recent reports that global surface warming...

nature.com

A dark blizzard of disinformation is warping the public’s perception of our great city. But we know the truth: our homicide rate is lower than every major US city, neighbourhood crimes are down and we’ve been ranked #1 city in the world 11 years in a row. My piece for The Times.

We must fight back against troll army’s lies about London

There is a dark blizzard of disinformation online, where our capital is described as a lawless dystopia in decline — this couldn’t be further from the truth

thetimes.com

UK Hydrological Outlook: A wetter-than-average autumn expected but a regional contrast likely for river flows 💧 Above normal flows in northern and western areas; Groundwater levels and river flows likely to stay below normal to notably low in south of England; More normal conditions elsewhere. 1/

Map of UK with shaded areas showing principal aquifers, plus details from September 2026 UK Hydrological Outlook

A striking finding from global drought experiments: Trees show little evidence of physiological acclimation to drought. The inner hydraulic machinery stays the same. The safety margin shrinks. That’s a very different, more vulnerable picture of forest resilience. www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

Declining hydraulic safety in a drier world | PNAS

Forests worldwide are increasingly exposed to soil drought under climate change, with their fates depending on the ability to maintain essential fu...

pnas.org

Projection has become reality 22 years ago, Christoph Schär et al. published a landmark paper in Nature explaining that the 2003 heatwave was a harbinger of things to come. The study featured an iconic figure - shown in countless lectures - illustrating how outlandish the event was at the time

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Nope, it’s the weeks of hot, dry weather made more severe by global heating due to fossil fuel burning that has increased the risk of wildfires. The landscape is so dry that any ignition can start a fire that becomes uncontrollable. Fields of crops and grasses are not “rewilded” but have burned

Front page of the Daily Mail newspaper “eclipse special” with headline “Rewilding link to record fires”, beneath a photograph of people watching the near-total eclipse of the sun with the title “Britain finally gets a break from the sun (for a few minutes!)”

After record low July rainfall, what's next for UK river flows? Below normal to exceptionally low flows across England, Wales & NE Scotland will continue with record lows anticipated for August & drought impacts into the autumn. 🎥 Dr Katie Facer-Childs with the latest UK Hydrological Outlook.

Short-sighted, stupid cuts to the UKRI budget include shutting down Jodrell Bank, the icon of British astronomy. (Many other cuts too, including 20% to our brand new @vrubinobs.bsky.social). Interesting politically to shut down a major facility in...um..Manchester 🔭 www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Jodrell Bank's Lovell telescope faces axe in science cuts, BBC understands

Astronomers warn it would tear the heart out of UK science, and leave a generation untrained.

bbc.co.uk