JD Menton
@jdmenton.bsky.social
Fellow @ Carnegie Endowment Nuclear Policy Program; nukes, non-pro, and tech governance; recovering journalist, itinerant Floridian
French President Emmanuel Macron has just given a truly remarkable speech on France's nuclear policy at a moment of great anxiety in Europe. I wanted to offer an early comment. Welcome to the age of 'Dissuasion Avancée' in Europe. New post: panda.substack.com/p/dissuasion...
A U.S. attack on Iran can have limitations: “If you want to get the IAEA back in there in a meaningful way, military strikes just don’t really help you with that,” explains @jdmenton.bsky.social 👇️
Rash: Trump should level with Americans about Iran
Trump missed the chance in his State of the Union address Tuesday night to offer clarity to the country about America’s military buildup in the Middle East, John Rash writes.
buff.ly
In light of the SOTU's unspecified references to Iranian nuclear activities, re-upping an article I wrote for @foreignpolicy.com after the 12 Day War about the need to restore nuclear oversight if all parties aspire to more than a temporary respite between crises.
Iran's foreign minister reported "good progress" in nuclear talks with the U.S. this week. But amid U.S. military buildup in the region, tensions with regulators, and pressure within Iran, what should we make of statements like this? @jdmenton.bsky.social explains: youtube.com/shorts/qANNr...
The U.S. and Iran: Talks and Tensions
YouTube video by Carnegie Explains
youtube.com
Great piece by Zadie Smith. When the right talks about classics or "Western" culture, these works are only important to the extent that it demonstrates their superiority, they have no interest in art in and of itself beyond that www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
President Trump's interview on 60 Minutes did very little to clarify his stance on the United States resuming full-scale nuclear tests for the first time in more than three decades. Let's look at some of his statements. 1/11
Resuming U.S. nuclear testing, as President Trump has suggested, “would do more to benefit our adversaries than the United States," says @coreyah.bsky.social on @npr.org. More from Corey on why: www.npr.org/2025/10/30/n...
Trump says he wants to resume nuclear testing. Here's what that would mean
The U.S. has not conducted a nuclear test in over 30 years. Experts say doing one now could make America less safe.
npr.org
Read @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social and @jdmenton.bsky.social piece, "MENA at the Threshold? Proliferation Risks and Great Power Competition", in a series of essays by @tnsr.org on the shifting global nuclear order. Check it out here: tnsr.org/roundtable/n...
Navigating the New Nuclear Map - Texas National Security Review
The global nuclear order is undergoing rapid and complex transformations, driven by the expansion of arsenals, evolving doctrines, and the interplay of domestic and international politics. This roundt...
tnsr.org
In the fall, I wrote a piece for @carnegienpp.bsky.social about the hazards of playing political football with international oversight. Today, Iran's president announced the suspension of cooperation w/ the #IAEA. 🧵
Me in @carnegieendowment.org’s Diwan: The end of open hostilities has not brought clarity to Iran’s strategic direction. Instead, it has exposed an ongoing effort within the political and military establishment over how to interpret the war’s outcome. carnegieendowment.org/middle-east/...
Iran After the Battle
The country’s political and military establishment is still debating how to interpret the recent war’s outcome.
carnegieendowment.org
“In the absence of cooperation, future crises will be hard to avoid and even harder to de-escalate.” @jdmenton.bsky.social on nuclear uncertainty – and the need for diplomacy – in Iran, for @foreignpolicy.com: foreignpolicy.com/2025/06/27/i...
Don’t Let Iran Become Another Iraq
Nuclear uncertainty is bad for regional stability.
foreignpolicy.com
"In the days and weeks to come, policymakers will have to carefully distinguish between Iran’s legitimate frustrations and domestic political constraints and attempts to manipulate these conditions to mask clandestine proliferation ambitions."
JD Menton@jdmenton.bsky.social · last yr.In @foreignpolicy.com I wrote about Iran and why nuclear uncertainty is bad for regional stability. Unclear diplomatic priorities + backlash against the IAEA w/in Iran are setting us down a dangerous path. @carnegieendowment.org @carnegienpp.bsky.social foreignpolicy.com/2025/06/27/i...
In @foreignpolicy.com I wrote about Iran and why nuclear uncertainty is bad for regional stability. Unclear diplomatic priorities + backlash against the IAEA w/in Iran are setting us down a dangerous path. @carnegieendowment.org @carnegienpp.bsky.social foreignpolicy.com/2025/06/27/i...
Don’t Let Iran Become Another Iraq
Nuclear uncertainty is bad for regional stability.
foreignpolicy.com
Some thoughts about Trump's comments today re further nuclear diplomacy with Iran + the Majlis bill to suspend Iran's cooperation with the IAEA (tldr: individually: bad, together: very bad!)
Per Rose's remarks, she's the opposite of Oz- what's behind the curtain is even better than what's on screen. Richly deserved award, and moving presentation.
James Acton@nuclear-jim.bsky.social · last yr.Rose Gottemoeller is announced as the recipient of the 2025 Thérèse Delpech Memorial Award… and the crowd at #nukecon goes wild. Alex Bell with the announcement.
At the Carnegie nonproliferation conference and IAEA chief Rafael M. Grossi spent a bit of time making the case for nuclear-propulsion in commercial shipping. Really interesting.
Just announced: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi will deliver a keynote (virtually) at our Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference on Monday morning. carnegieendowment.org/events/2024/...
There are a few ways this could play out- some worse than others, but any further blow to oversight of Iran's nuclear program would ultimately yield minimal leverage... and huge risks. Working to restore what has been lost, and align M&V with Iran's current capabilities would be mutually beneficial.
Carnegie Endowment @carnegieendowment.org · last yr.If Iran decides to stop cooperating with international regulators, wrote @jdmenton.bsky.social “the most likely outcome is a toxic cocktail of uncertainty and worst-case thinking.” Read more on this and other still-applicable lessons from 1990s Iraq in Jane Darby’s article:
🚨2 days left to register for the Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference!!🚨 Ft phenomenal speakers on nuclear energy, missile defense, US proliferation policy, Russian nuclear doctrine + more @carnegieendowment.org @carnegienpp.bsky.social carnegieendowment.org/events/2024/...
2025 Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference
For over 35 years, experts, officials, executives, journalists, and students from across the globe have come together to debate—and explore solutions for—the most pressing challenges in nuclear nonproliferation, arms control, disarmament, deterrence, energy, and security at the Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference.
carnegieendowment.org
Excited to see this panel at Carnegie’s Nuclear Policy Conference - “Back to the Future? Nuclear Proliferation Risks in an Era of Uncertainty,” featuring the 3 co-chairs (and 1 member) of the NTI-CEIP-Belfer Task Force on Nuclear Proliferation and US Nat Sec. carnegieendowment.org/events/2024/...
2025 Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference
For over 35 years, experts, officials, executives, journalists, and students from across the globe have come together to debate—and explore solutions for—the most pressing challenges in nuclear nonpro...
carnegieendowment.org
DOGE cuts at the top U.S. nuclear security agency could enable threats to national security. @coreyah.bsky.social explained in @nytimes.com: www.nytimes.com/2025/03/17/u...
Trilateral statement from Russia, China, and Iran on the status of Iran’s nuclear program—a clear signal of their effort to preempt a response to potential snapback sanctions. 🧵
"The three countries stressed the necessity for all states to refrain from any action that undermine the technical, objective and impartial work of the IAEA"
Nicole Grajewski@nicolegrajewski.bsky.social · last yr.
@nktpnd.bsky.social very kindly had me on his @warontherocks.bsky.social podcast a few weeks ago to chat about Iran's nuclear program, and what we might see from Tehran, Washington, and the region in the coming months.
How Will the Trump Administration Manage Iran? - War on the Rocks
warontherocks.com
On Ankit Panda's very good nuke podcast Thinking the Unthinkable, he hosts his fellow Carnegie fellow Jane Darby Menton to discuss the Trump Redux era U.S. approach to Iran's nuclear program. @nktpnd.bsky.social @carnegieendowment.org @warontherocks.bsky.social warontherocks.com/episode/thin...
How Will the Trump Administration Manage Iran? - War on the Rocks
warontherocks.com
My piece with Or Rabinowitz in Foreign Affairs on Russia-Iran-Israel dynamics, Russia’s support for Iran’s nuclear program, and the options for US policy going forward www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/will-...
Will Iran and Russia’s Growing Partnership Go Nuclear?
Trump’s “maximum pressure” could push Tehran and Moscow even closer.
foreignaffairs.com
