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Nicole Grajewski

@nicolegrajewski.bsky.social

Assistant Professor at Sciences Po CERI | Associate with Harvard’s Managing the Atom | working on nuclear issues involving Russia and Iran | author of Russia and Iran: Partners in Defiance from Syria to Ukraine (OUP/Hurst)

749 Posts11839 Follower482 Folgt
Project on Managing the Atom@managingtheatom.bsky.social · 4mo ago

In an NPR interview, @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social describes Kharg Island as the “crown jewel” of Iran’s oil infrastructure, highlighting the potential consequences of a US seizure: www.npr.org/2026/03/26/n...

Analysts say potential US operation to seize Iran's Kharg Island would be risky

The Pentagon is considering the seizure of Iran's Kharg Island. It's a risky operation, and Iran could retaliate by targeting the biggest energy facilities in the Gulf, sending prices soaring.

npr.org

Ankit Panda@nktpnd.bsky.social · 4mo ago

I've said this before, but part of why I continue to be bleak on prospects of prompt war termination are because Iran has *very strong incentives* to continue pain infliction (against the US/Israel/GCC and the broader world) to deter a future war by credibly communicating the magnitude of costs.

George Pearkes@peark.es · 4mo ago

Incredible scenes here, it looks like the US is effectively suing for peace and Iran is saying "no thanks" while Israel is most concerned that the US might actually succeed. www.axios.com/2026/03/24/i...

03/24/2026 13:50:18[AXS] Decrease Increase BookmarkSearch foHide U.S. awaits Iran's response on peace summit as Israel watches warily Summary by Bloomberg AI • The U.S. and a group of regional mediators are discussing the possibility of holding high-level peace talks with Iran as soon as Thursday, but are still waiting for a response from Tehran. • Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is concerned Trump might strike a deal that falls well short of Israel's objectives, includes significant concessions, and limits Israel's ability to conduct strikes against Iran. • The U.S. gave Iran a 15-point proposal for a possible deal to end the war, but it's unclear if anyone with authority in Tehran has actually agreed to the terms. By Barak Ravid (Axios) The U.S. and a group of regional mediators are discussing the possibility of holding high-level peace talks with Iran as soon as Thursday, but are still waiting for a response from Tehran, two sources with knowledge of the discussions tell Axios. Why it matters: President Trump is interested in winding down the war, but Iran's chokehold on the Gulf of Hormuz complicates any potential exit strategy. The U.S. has shared with Israel its 15-point plan to end the war and claimed Iran had agreed to many of the key points. There's been no tangible evidence of any such agreement. • Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is concerned Trump might strike a deal that falls well short of Israel's objectives, includes significant concessions, and limits Israel's ability to conduct strikes against Iran, two Israeli sources say. • A third source said Israeli leaders were skeptical Iran had actually offered the concessions the U.S. claimed.
Carnegie Politika@ceip-politika.bsky.social · 5mo ago

🎧 NEW EPISODE of the Carnegie Politika podcast: @alexgabuev.bsky.social, @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social, and Sergey Vakulenko discuss what the war in Iran means for Moscow. How does it affect Russian influence in the region, and its position on global energy markets?

How Is the Iran War Affecting Russia? With Nicole Grajewski and Sergey Vakulenko

Podcast host Alex Gabuev is joined by his colleagues Nicole Grajewski, a non-resident fellow at Carnegie Endowment and the author of Russia and Iran: Partners in Defiance from Syria to Ukraine, and Se...

carnegieendowment.org

Carnegie Politika@ceip-politika.bsky.social · 5mo ago

"Most of Moscow’s military resources are tied up in Ukraine, while Beijing’s foreign policy prioritizes economic ties and avoids direct conflict." Alexander Gabuev and Temur Umarov explain why neither Russia nor China has offered any tangible support to Iran.

Why Are China and Russia Not Rushing to Help Iran?

Most of Moscow’s military resources are tied up in Ukraine, while Beijing’s foreign policy prioritizes economic ties and avoids direct conflict.

carnegieendowment.org

Nicole Grajewski@nicolegrajewski.bsky.social · 5mo ago

CNN reports Russia is now providing Iran with more specific operational guidance on UAV employment, including targeting approaches derived from its use of Shahed drones in Ukraine. This is not very surprising but good to have it confirmed.

François Diaz-Maurin@francoisdm.bsky.social · 5mo ago

🚨 JUST IN: I wrote about Trump's self-induced dilemma of sending US troops to seize or destroy Iran's highly enriched uranium. #Iran #Isfahan #uranium #Trump #nuclearweapons #nukesky @thebulletin.org

Trump may send US troops to neutralize Iran's highly enriched uranium. There are no good options

Deploying US troops to seize or destroy Iran's highly enriched uranium would bring significant chemical, logistical, and tactical hurdles.

thebulletin.org

Association Pour l'Ukraine, pour leur liberté et la nôtre !@pourlukraine.bsky.social · 5mo ago

Le stock de Shahed de l’Iran peut être estimé à “entre 4000 et 6000”(…) Au début de la guerre en 🇺🇦, Téhéran avait pu en livrer plusieurs milliers à son allié russe [mais ils] sont désormais en quasi-totalité fabriqués en 🇷🇺, sous le nom de Geran-2. @nicolastenzer.bsky.social @ilasserre.bsky.social

Les voisins de l’Iran, confrontés aux attaques de drones, découvrent leur vulnérabilité

Dénués d’expérience en matière de lutte contre les engins kamikazes, notamment les Shahed, les pays du Golfe sont apparus désemparés face à la menace posée par la République islamique, déterminée de s...

lemonde.fr

Project on Managing the Atom@managingtheatom.bsky.social · 5mo ago

@nicolegrajewski.bsky.social argues that New START’s expiration won’t trigger a Cold War–style arms race, but rather a quieter shift toward warhead “uploading,” nonstrategic expansion, and greater nuclear ambiguity in a trilateral U.S.–Russia–China landscape. theins.ru/en/opinion/n...

Nuclear breakdown: How the end of the New START treaty will affect the arms race between Russia and the U.S.

In early February, the Treaty on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms between the United States and Russia (better known as New START) expired, and no new agreement has been reached to take its place. However, a Cold War-style arms race appears unlikely, as Russia does not have the necessary resources for the mass production of new strategic weapons, argues nuclear policy expert Nicole Grajewski, an assistant professor at the Center for International Studies (CERI) at Sciences Po in Paris. In her view, a more likely future scenario involves Russia increasing the number of warheads on systems already in its arsenal while expanding production of nonstrategic weapons. The end of mutual inspections provided for under New START creates new opportunities to pursue such projects, even if Russia's coffers have been depleted by the war in Ukraine. China, however, does have the resources, and its nuclear program offers new causes for concern.

theins.ru