Joel Suss
@joelsuss.ft.com
Data journalist, Financial Times | Visiting Fellow, London School of Economics joel.suss@ft.com
New from me: Until recently, the gap between comfortably-off and just-getting-started could plausibly be crossed in a decade or two of hard work. Growth in asset prices means that’s no longer true: even a lifetime of striving doesn’t offer a realistic prospect of feeling you’ve “made it”.
Warsh's ban on forward guidance is a legitimate policy choice. The problem is that his chosen justification for it is absolute nonsense.
Nice figure on the Warsh effect -- the gap between the 30yr and 2yr Treasury shot up as.ft.com/r/7d1c8d80-2...
FT's Robert Armstrong: Warsh’s description of his communications policy is nonsense. Unless Warsh (and the rest of us) get lucky, this will become a bigger problem over time. Warsh’s forward guidance omertà: I don’t believe it can last for ever. www.ft.com/content/fe3f...
Silicon Warsh — our AI version of the real Kevin Warsh — has more credibility Here’s what Silicon Warsh said during fake FOMC meeting: “The Committee needs to demonstrate, through action not rhetoric, its resolve to deliver on price stability.” as.ft.com/r/b843f13d-5... The LLM FOMC votes to raise
The LLM FOMC votes to raise
Silicon Warsh is a hawk
as.ft.com
Chalk this one up to the humans! AI not yet our overlords ...
Joel Suss@joelsuss.ft.com · last wk.Kevin Warsh's Fed meets today to decide on rates, but the new chair has been tight-lipped, giving no signal on direction Silicon Warsh, on the other hand, loves to talk. At @alphaville.ft.com, I used LLMs to simulate the FOMC. The result: a unanimous vote to raise rates www.ft.com/content/76b4...
Kevin Warsh's Fed meets today to decide on rates, but the new chair has been tight-lipped, giving no signal on direction Silicon Warsh, on the other hand, loves to talk. At @alphaville.ft.com, I used LLMs to simulate the FOMC. The result: a unanimous vote to raise rates www.ft.com/content/76b4...
The LLM FOMC votes to raise
Silicon Warsh is a hawk
ft.com
I've written an op-ed in the @financialtimes.com today where I argue that we should talk more about consumption tax, and in particular the need to reform UK VAT It can be made more efficient and progressive while also raising much needed revenue as.ft.com/r/66472205-f...
A truly progressive VAT would solve a lot of UK tax problems
Ending exemptions while excluding low-income households would be fairer and bring in far more revenue
as.ft.com
At dinner before day one of his first meeting as Fed chair, Kevin Warsh told his 18 colleagues he was launching five task forces to rethink how the Fed reads the economy. Chris Waller asked what the point was. Name who's on them, he said, and I'll tell you what they'll say.
Kevin Warsh Wanted a ‘Good Family Fight’ at the Fed. He’s Getting One.
The new chairman initiated a debate over how the central bank works, and it could test his tight-lipped approach on the economy.
wsj.com
Since Kevin Warsh boasted about how volatility, bond yields and inflation expectations had fallen since he was sworn in... ... they have all reversed Perhaps, not such a genius
I've written about the troubling, decades-long decoupling of pay & productivity growth The textbook says these should grow together, but reality - far from perfect competition - means capital has captured more of the economic fruits AI risks widening the gap Link 👉 as.ft.com/r/a188bb54-b...
1/7 FT: "According to economic theory, productivity and real wages should grow in tandem, with the benefits of new technology being shared with the workers who produce the stuff. But in the US, Europe and Japan, pay growth has decoupled from... www.ft.com/content/9741...
Why wages and productivity look set to diverge further
AI and a falling labour share of GDP risk accelerating decoupling trends across the rich world
ft.com
Having spent a very happy 18 months sinking into its 3,000 pages, I have written about why reading Proust is essential in the 21st century as.ft.com/r/32995bbf-8...
Proust in the age of TikTok
The French writer’s seven-volume magnum opus was a challenging choice for a book club — but its evocation of the human psyche makes essential reading for our times
as.ft.com
@joelsuss.ft.com : The median US household now sees long-run inflation to be 3.5 per cent, against an average of 2.5 per cent from 2015 through 2019. (“Long-run” is expected annual inflation in five years’ time.) (1/2)
Monetary Policy Radar | Financial Times
Monetary Policy Radar, a new product from FT Professional, has been designed to boost investors’ confidence and help anticipate future monetary policy decisions.
ft.com
A betting account in the name of George Cottrell, the convicted fraudster who bankrolled Nigel Farage, received almost $9mn in cryptocurrency from unidentified sources while he was providing gifts to the Reform UK leader great work from @annasophiegross.bsky.social www.ft.com/content/b74c...
Betting account in George Cottrell’s name received $9mn in crypto from unidentified sources
Deposits in Polymarket wallet came as convicted fraudster was providing gifts to Farage
ft.com
Household inflation expectations in the US are worryingly high In surveys & social media, people expect higher inflation in the long term. The market is more sanguine, but it's household behaviour that matters Warsh's Fed risks being all talk and no action on rates as.ft.com/r/bfb57ad3-6...
@joelsuss.ft.com at FT: Partial fiscal devolution would bring some revenue autonomy, further encouraging experimentation and healthy competition, but also strengthening local accountability. (1/3)
Andy Burnham should pursue a devolution ‘big bang’
If done right, radical decentralisation could boost UK productivity growth and living standards
ft.com
What a weird metaphor to choose. I'm no electrician but isn't a circuit breaker the thing that causes all the lights to go out?
Financial Times@financialtimes.com · 2w agoAndy Burnham has promised to make his premiership a 'circuit-breaker for Britain' as he pledged to bring in a new economic and political model for the country. Follow the latest here: ft.trib.al/ObPUY1C
With the Andy Burnham era beginning, I argue that the new PM should go for a devolution 'big bang' This could help solve two big problems: low productivity in the public sector and in the UK's second-tier cities My Free Lunch column: as.ft.com/r/c9866d20-9...
I've written about the Fed and BoE's trust deficit for the @financialtimes.com central banks newsletter A growing % of households in US and UK are 'de-anchored', expecting far higher inflation in long run. Low levels of trust are an important reason why as.ft.com/r/99d85a19-0...
wrote for the magazine about the open source software that underpins our digital lives, how it is being upended by AI code tools, and about maintainers as.ft.com/r/b7f62212-9...
Who cleans up after the vibe-coding party?
Our obsession with AI code-writing tools is overwhelming the web’s unsung human caretakers
ft.com
🤖 Can an AI ‘superforecaster’ beat the market? 🤖 When it comes to predicting Fed decisions, the AI does not (yet) have an edge as.ft.com/r/aded4aa2-4...
🚨NHS hospitals have admitted to a litany of errors in the data behind a headline claim about the success of the controversial £330mn Palantir contract after a @financialtimes.com investigation found dozens of irregularities. Scoop w/ @laurahughesft.bsky.social as.ft.com/r/7ab92d75-3...
🚨We're hiring!🚨 The @data.ft.com team is hiring a graphics journalist. job-boards.eu.greenhouse.io/financialtim...
Graphics journalist, Visual and Data desk ( Contractor)
London
job-boards.eu.greenhouse.io
