Jonathan Mann
@jonathanmann.bsky.social
I'm a forecasting professional with Good Judgment (Superforecaster), RAND (INFER Pro), and Samotsvety. I currently work as a Security Architect and was previously a Data Scientist on Wall Street. I also teach computer science as adjunct faculty at NYU.
It's Memorial Day weekend and almost 1,000 New York City restaurants are still waiting for their outdoor dining permits thanks to a whole mess of bureaucratic hurdles set up by the previous mayor and City Council. www.youtube.com/shorts/qdtCu...
1,000 NYC restaurants are STILL waiting for outdoor dining permits #nyc #nycfood #nycrestaurants
YouTube video by Streetsblog NYC
youtube.com
"How, exactly, could AI take over by 2027?" Introducing AI 2027: a deeply researched scenario forecast I wrote with Daniel Kokoatjlo, Scott Alexander, and others. The scenario: ai-2027.com PDF version: ai-2027.com/scenario.pdf
AI 2027
A research-backed AI scenario forecast.
ai-2027.com
When you write your post about which experts to trust, make sure to mention exponential weights. Even when the experts select their predictions adversarially, exponential weights is only O(\sqrt{T}) worse than the best expert in hindsight. See the proof here: www.mit.edu/~9.520/sprin...
mit.edu
What is everyone wrong about? Exaggerated, unnuanced takes 🧵 Forecasting. Everyone is wrong about why forecasting is good for most people. It's a way to learn if they are bullshitting uncorrelated with the career success or social approval. x.com/s_r_constan...
When should you actually spend time forecasting a decision? Seldom. But when you should, you really should. New post on knowing when forecasting matters (and when it doesn't): abstraction.substack.com/p/when-to-us...
When to Use Forecasting for Decisions
seldom needed, but don't neglect it when it is
abstraction.substack.com
New in NHB: We systematically replicated 26 of 41 PNAS social science studies that used MTurk. The approach provides a proof-of-concept for using decision markets to select findings to replicate. Replication effect sizes were 45% of original effect sizes. www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Examining the replicability of online experiments selected by a decision market - Nature Human Behaviour
This study finds that decision markets can be a useful tool for selecting studies for replication. For a sample of 26 online experiments published in PNAS selected by a decision market, the authors fi...
nature.com
Make a hypothesis about what you expect to see, every step of the way. A manifesto: statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2024/11/13/m...
Make a hypothesis about what you expect to see, every step of the way. A manifesto: | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
In these difficult times, it is worth remembering that the climate outlook, though dark, has improved over the last 10 years. We can change our course. Source: www.economist.com/interactive/...
