The AMOC: what is it, how is it changing and why does it matter? Been hearing a lot about the AMOC and want to know more about what it is and why it matters? My colleagues (Ruth Chapman and Georgina Kyriacou) and I at the @granthamlse.bsky.social have written an explainer on the AMOC.

The AMOC: what is it, how is it changing and why does it matter? - Grantham Research Institute on climate change and the environment

What is the AMOC? AMOC stands for ‘Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation’. This is a giant conveyor belt moving warm, salty...

lse.ac.uk

***Seminars on Climate Uncertainty, Decision-making, and AMOC changes*** I have really enjoyed giving seminars at Uppsala University, Stockholm University, SMHI, and Lund University over the past few weeks.

While the La Niña signature (cooling in the eastern Tropical Pacific) remained prevalent in January, there are signs it is beginning to fade in recent weeks. Elsewhere, anomalous warmth continues in the extratropics of both hemispheres. Data from NOAA OISSTv2.1 (www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/opt...) 🌊

*** Ocean Sciences Poster on "Uncertainty Quantification of the Regional Temperature Consequences of a Large AMOC Reduction"*** I will be presenting a poster at the Ocean Sciences Meeting #OSM next week. See this link for a sneak preview: osm26.ipostersessions.com?s=77-E2-6D-B...

*** Presentation on Uncertainties in Climate Models and the Southern Ocean *** Really enjoyed presenting at the Challenger Society Ocean Modelling Special Interest Group this week. For more info see our recent preprint: essopenarchive.org/users/946271...

🌊 The Atlantic “conveyor belt” (AMOC) is weakening under climate change. A new @nature.com study suggests collapse is unlikely this century, but the risks remain very serious. Hear from lead author @jonbakerocean.bsky.social in our next webinar. 📅 2 Sep 2025, 2–3PM CEST 🔗 bit.ly/climtip-webi...

Great article in The Economist on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the impact of potential changes in it (a key focus of my current work). www.economist.com/leaders/2025...

The shutdown of ocean currents could freeze Europe

When climate change poses a strategic threat, it needs a strategic response

economist.com

It is good to see @economist.com highlighting the importance of climate tipping points, and the work being done to understand and prepare for them. It discusses the work being done by UK groups (including the @aria-research.bsky.social project which I am part of) www.economist.com/interactive/...

Earth’s climate is approaching irreversible tipping points

Scientists are racing to work out just how close they might be

economist.com

PhD Graduation!! Very happy to finally graduate from my PhD, focusing on Southern Ocean Centennial Oscillations in the CMIP6 Ensemble”. I am incredibly grateful to all those who have supported me throughout, friends, family and colleagues (too many to name here,please check out my acknowledgements).

I am excited to announce our new preprint "Shutdown of Southern Ocean Convective Centennial Variability under Global Warming and Implications for Climate Projections". This is the first paper on content from my PhD thesis and I am so happy that it is now submitted. essopenarchive.org/users/946271...

We're hiring! Research Officer on the RobustAssess project, funded by @aria-research.bsky.social . Join the @granthamlse.bsky.social and the London School of Economics as a Research Officer and work on climate tipping points and the future of climate model ensembles.

Fantastic work from the UK OBR and CCC, presented by Carbon Brief, showing how the estimated costs of climate change for the UK have increased from around 5% to 8% of GDP by 2070 under 3C of warming, while the cost of avoiding is much lower and has roughly halved since the last estimate!

Simon Evans@drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · last yr.

NEW: Getting to net-zero will be much cheaper than thought for the UK – and unchecked global warming far more costly, says OBR Quick piece / thread with 4 key charts showing, yet again, why climate action is far less costly than inaction 🧵 www.carbonbrief.org/... 1/6

Had some fantastic conversations following my talk on "Economic impacts of AMOC tipping and uncertainty" at the Global Tipping Points Conference at University of Exeter.

Thank you so much to @bas.ac.uk and @cambridgemba.bsky.social for inviting me to speak to their Executive MBA group about the economic impacts of climate change and the use of climate information in decision-making.

Lowest global sea ice area for the date on record 🧪

Really looking forward to presenting my work on the Economic consequences of CMIP Diversity and Targets for CMIP7 at #EGU25, do drop by if you would like to learn more about climate model uncertainty and its relevance for economic modelling.

EGU Presentation: "Economic Consequences of CMIP Diversity and Targets for CMIP7" I am presenting next week at #EGU25 on the economic consequences of climate and model uncertainty, do come and watch or get in touch if you are interested! meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/EGU25-... @egu.eu

Very happy to announce I have submitted the final printed and bound version of my PhD thesis “Southern Ocean Centennial Oscillations in the CMIP6 Ensemble”! It is also now accessible online: www.repository.cam.ac.uk/items/f8e627.... More details in the thread:

Had a fantastic time at the TipESM and ClimTip Joint Annual Meeting in Paris. I really enjoyed the intense discussion on tipping point impacts and behaviour, as well as thought-provoking breakout groups and storyline sessions encouraging us to think outside the box and reconsider our assumptions.

ClimTip | Climate Tipping Points in the Earth System@climtip.bsky.social · last yr.

👋 Paris welcomes #ClimTip and #TipESM with a perfect April weather for the joint annual conference 2025 hosted at Institut Henri Poincaré! We look forward to lively exchanges between researchers working on #ClimateTippingPoints in the Earth system! @climtip.bsky.social @tipesm.bsky.social

Hybrid Talk, Zoom Link Available: "Economic Impacts of Climate Tipping Points" I am very excited to be speaking at the ClimaTRACES workshop today 12:45 (Monday 10th march). Feel free to join us in person or on the zoom link available here: climatraces.org/events/works...

Economic Impacts of Climate Tipping Points — climaTRACES Lab

This session is led by Jonathan Rosser (Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge and the British Antarctic Survey). Our weekly climaTRACES workshops is at...

climatraces.org

"A weaker current may also allow more warm water to penetrate southwards, exacerbating the melting of Antarctic ice shelves and contributing to global sea-level rise. Faster ice melting could then lead to further weakening of the current, commencing a vicious spiral of current slowdown."

Melting Antarctic ice will slow the world’s strongest ocean current – and the global consequences are profound

Part of the system that pumps water, heat and nutrients around the globe is at risk. Climate change could slow the Antarctic Circumpolar Current down 20% by 2050.

theconversation.com

🧪🌊🧵 Despite having his job at NOAA terminated @zacklabe.com has still brought his visualisations that show the alarming recent trend in Antarctic sea-ice extent up to date. zacklabe.com/antarctic-se... 1/2

Antarctic: Sea-Ice Concentration/Extent/Thickness

My visualizations: Arctic Climate Seasonality and Variability Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Concentration Arctic Sea Ice Volume and Thickness Arctic Temperatures Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Concentrat…

zacklabe.com

If you would like to watch my talk on "The Economic Impacts of Climate Tipping Points" it is now available on youtube: www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Yvk...

GSI & Tipping Points seminar - Dr Jonathan Rosser

YouTube video by University of Exeter

youtube.com

Jonathan Rosser@jonathanrosser.bsky.social · last yr.

Really enjoyed speaking on "The Economic Impacts of Climate Tipping Points" as well as some results from my recent paper on the uncertainties surrounding interacting tipping points (www.nature.com/articles/s43...). Thank you for the invite!

Really enjoyed speaking on "The Economic Impacts of Climate Tipping Points" as well as some results from my recent paper on the uncertainties surrounding interacting tipping points (www.nature.com/articles/s43...). Thank you for the invite!

Global Systems Institute@gsiexeter.bsky.social · last yr.

Join the GSI and Tipping Points Seminar Series for a guest lecture tomorrow from Dr Jonathan Rosser, LSE, on his research focused on physical uncertainties and economic impacts of climate tipping points. Please email infoGSI@exeter.ac.uk to confirm your place.

January 2025 was the 18th month in a 19-month period in which the global-average temperature was more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial level. 🧵

Latest data from @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social shows: January 2025 was the warmest January globally on record 🌡️ 1.75ºC above pre-industrial level 🌊 Second highest global SST, 0.19°C below January 2024  #ClimateAction 🧪⚒️🌍

I am really excited to be part of the ARIA Forecasting Tipping Points Programme @aria-research.bsky.social working with David Stainforth, the London School of Economics and @granthamlse.bsky.social.

Climate tipping points could have large consequences for human society, but we still have huge uncertainty around them. @climtip.bsky.social and I have put together a thread diving into more detail around my recent research on this uncertainty and how we should approach it:

ClimTip | Climate Tipping Points in the Earth System@climtip.bsky.social · last yr.

❓Did you know that many climate models—the ones we rely on for future planning—have a serious blind spot and may be overconfident. A new study in @commsearth.bsky.social reveals why this is a problem. And it’s all about polar ice sheets and climate tipping points. 1/🧵 www.nature.com/articles/s43...

"How to cope with climate uncertainties in strategic decisions" at Evidence Week. This week David Stainforth and I are at #EvidenceWeek in Parliament with Sense about Science to present research evidence on "How to cope with climate uncertainties in strategic decisions" to parliamentarians.

🆕 paper from @bas.ac.uk and PIK in @commsearth.bsky.social: "Polar ice sheets are decisive contributors to uncertainty in climate tipping projections" 👇

Polar ice sheets are decisive contributors to uncertainty in climate tipping projections

Communications Earth & Environment - The polar ice sheets are key contributors to the uncertainty of future climate change projection, according to an analysis using an Earth system network...

rdcu.be

Australian Antarctic Program Partnership@antarctic.bsky.social · 2y ago

📈 "At a global warming level of 1.5°C, neglecting the polar ice sheets can alter the expected number of tipped elements by more than a factor of 2." 📷 Sarah Thompson