Jon Baker

@jonbakerocean.bsky.social

Climate Scientist @metoffice 🌍🌊 | Exploring AMOC and global ocean circulation | Views are my own | https://linktr.ee/jonbakerocean

What if the ocean current keeping Britain warm started to slow down? ☔ The AMOC acts like a giant conveyor belt, moving heat from the tropics to our shores. Models predict that the AMOC could slow down or collapse – potentially leading to new extremes in weather. 🧵1/2

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A balanced overview of some of the latest AMOC science and debates. There is still substantial uncertainty, and while collapse cannot be ruled out, claims of very high collapse probabilities (>50%) currently go beyond what the combined evidence from observations and models can robustly establish 🌊

Yale Environment 360@yalee360.bsky.social · 3mo ago

Scientists are increasingly worried that a key Atlantic current, which delivers warmth to northern Europe and shapes weather globally, is at risk of collapse. Multiple lines of evidence suggest it may be nearing a tipping point.

New study on blocking the Bering Strait to prevent an AMOC collapse. It highlights how complex the system is. Interventions like this are unlikely to offer a simple solution. Cutting greenhouse gas emissions remains the most reliable way to reduce the risk of AMOC weakening 🌊

Building a massive dam between Alaska and Russia could prevent AMOC collapse, scientists say

Building a dam in the Bering Strait might preserve the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, but experts warn it could also threaten wildlife, Indigenous people and shipping — and could actuall...

livescience.com

I was quoted in this @newscientist.com article on a study linking AMOC collapse to a large CO₂ release from the Southern Ocean. “To see this play out in a warmer climate, and with such a large increase in CO₂, is quite striking.” Key uncertainties remain in how SO processes respond across models 🌊

Collapse of key ocean current may release billions of tonnes of carbon

If the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation shut down, the knock-on effects could release hundreds of billions of tonnes of CO2, raising global temperatures even further

newscientist.com

❗NEW POSITION! Postdoctoral research fellow at the Geophysical Institute and the Bjerknes Centre, within physical oceanography. The position is for a fixed-term period of 3 years and is associated with the Arctic Ocean 2050 program. 🧪🌊 @unibergen.bsky.social www.jobbnorge.no/en/available...

Postdoctoral Research Fellow in physical oceanography (297421) | University of Bergen

Job title: Postdoctoral Research Fellow in physical oceanography (297421), Employer: University of Bergen, Deadline: Friday, April 17, 2026

jobbnorge.no

Speaking at #OSM2026 tomorrow (Thu 11:50, Hall 1) in the ocean overturning dynamics session. Presenting results from our Nature paper on why the AMOC weakens but is unlikely to collapse this century: Southern Ocean winds sustain the circulation in climate models 🌊

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🌊 In 2025, global sea surface temperatures were the 3rd warmest on record, ~0.5°C above the 1981–2010 average. SSTs dipped slightly from 2023–24 as El Niño shifted toward La Niña, but warm oceans still fueled floods and drought worldwide.

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📢 PhD opportunity! 🌊 “To collapse or not: the stability of the AMOC in a warming climate” Deadline: 8 Jan 2026 Work with Bristol, Liverpool & the Met Office on AMOC stability using observations, models & AI. Details: www.nercgw4plus.ac.uk/projects-202... Please share with anyone interested!

To collapse or not: the stability of the AMOC in a warming climate — NERC GW4+

Supervisor: Dr Rory Bingham Project keywords: climate, oceanography, AMOC, sea-level, AI

nercgw4plus.ac.uk

📢 New paper on the impacts of AMOC collapse on European hydroclimate. 🌊 We find an AMOC collapse would exacerbate drought conditions across Europe, linked to reduced precipitation. In combination with climate change droughts are expected to become more frequent and severe. doi.org/10.5194/hess...

Changing European hydroclimate under a collapsed AMOC in the Community Earth System Model

Abstract. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is expected to weaken or even collapse under anthropogenic climate change. Given the importance of the AMOC in the present-day climate,...

doi.org

Happy to see this out! Meltwater can delay future surface warming, and its interannual variations impact ocean stratification & overturning.​​ This effect is usually absent from models. Including it as forcing may lead to more realistic simulation of surface temperature and sea ice trends🧊🌊 (1/7)

Gavin Schmidt@climateofgavin.bsky.social · 9mo ago

Finally out! The outcome of a virtual workshop in Feb 2024 with modelers and observationalists to put together data and protocols to include historical changes in ice sheet/ice shelf discharge in CMIP models. Hopefully not too late for some CMIP7 runs! gmd.copernicus.org/articles/18/...