Joshua Rovner
@jrovner.bsky.social
Professor of International Relations, American University Nonresident Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution
Strategy, grand strategy, and lessons from the French experience in the American Revolution @engelsbergideas.bsky.social
American University School of International Service@ausis.bsky.social · 4w agoIn a recent essay, SIS professor @jrovner.bsky.social discusses the difference between military strategy and grand strategy, and the danger of mistaking one for the other. Read the full piece: https://engelsbergideas.com/essays/the-bourbon-trap-military-prowess-is-not-a-grand-strategy/
"If you like the Fourth of July, thank a Frenchman." My two cents in this Happy Birthday compendium... blueblaze.substack.com/p/happy-birt...
Happy Birthday, USA
Salutations from foreign policy experts on America's 250th
blueblaze.substack.com
Professor @jrovner.bsky.social examines what history can tell us about the trajectory of US-China relations in this new piece published in @foreignaffairs.com. Read it here: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/real-thucydides-trap
The Real Thucydides Trap
Overconfidence could draw America and China into a war.
foreignaffairs.com
The United States and China each believe that they can use new technologies to overcome the other’s advantages—and “the more they indulge this prewar hope, the more likely they are to find themselves in a protracted conflict,” writes Joshua Rovner.
The Real Thucydides Trap
Overconfidence could draw America and China into a war.
foreignaffairs.com
In @foreignaffairs.com I write about how short wars become long ones. www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
The Real Thucydides Trap
Overconfidence could draw America and China into a war.
foreignaffairs.com
DC friends, @ldfreedman.bsky.social, Mara Karlin, Michael O'Hanlon, and I will be talking strategy at The Brookings Institution on March 24. Lots to discuss... www.brookings.edu/events/us-st...
US strategy in a turbulent world | Brookings
On March 24, join Brookings for a discussion on U.S. strategy in the current geopolitical moment.
brookings.edu
Trump's peactime grand strategy favors flexibility over principle. But this is a recipe for strategic confusion in war. Re-upping a piece from last year: warontherocks.com/2025/01/star...
The Economist@economist.com · 5mo agoDonald Trump must find a way to cut short his ill-considered conflict with Iran. His rash approach is sowing chaos econ.st/3OYibZ1
Some thoughts in @warontherocks.bsky.social on Trump's grand strategy after Iran warontherocks.com/2026/03/what...
What Recent Military Operations Signal About Trump’s Grand Strategy
In his 2025 article, “Start Making Sense, Strategy and Grand Strategy in the Trump Administration,” Joshua Rovner argued Trump’s flexible approach to a
warontherocks.com
Are those holiday gift cards already burning a hole in your pocket? Invest in something that lasts longer than the season. The TNSR winter issue, featuring our newly redesigned logo, is now available in print. Order your copy now from @utexaspress.bsky.social! utpress.utexas.edu/journals/tex...
China is undergoing major changes in how it thinks about nuclear weapons, as indicated in the just released China Military Power Report. 2 developments stand out. media.defense.gov/2025/Dec/23/...
media.defense.gov
Can autonomous weapons make war less brutal? Instead of viewing autonomy solely as a risk, Nathan Wood (@woodnathang.bsky.social) posits that these systems—when used within the correct parameters—offer a pathway to more discriminate and legally compliant warfare. tnsr.org/2025/12/bomb...
What is sabotage and how is it a form of statecraft in world politics? A new article co-authored by @jrovner.bsky.social in @ejisbisa.bsky.social explores this concept, which has important implications for understanding contemporary security challenges. Read more: www.american.edu/sis/research...
Joshua Rovner, Sand in the gears: Sabotage in world politics
Joshua Rovner's new co-authored article in the European Journal of International Security examines the nature and scope of sabotage as a form of statecraft.
american.edu
How did warfare evolve in the "greater Middle East" during the Cold War? Carter Malkasian from the National War College argues this period saw a "democratization of violence"—guerrilla warfare & terrorism—that complicated state authority.
@jrovner.bsky.social, @rorycormac.bsky.social, and @lmaschmeyer.bsky.social's new article is a super read on an important but neglected area of covert action: www.cambridge.org/core/service...
cambridge.org
What is sabotage? How does it work as a tool of statecraft? And what are its limits? Check out my new article with @rorycormac.bsky.social and @lmaschmeyer.bsky.social. Open access
Cambridge University Press Political Science & IR@cambup-polsci.cambridge.org · 10mo ago#OpenAccess from @ejisbisa.bsky.social - Sand in the gears: Sabotage in world politics - https://cup.org/4o2MQBc - @jrovner.bsky.social, @rorycormac.bsky.social & @lmaschmeyer.bsky.social #FirstView
Concerns about the presumption of regularity also impact national security policy. Re-upping a piece from the first Trump administration: warontherocks.com/2020/04/an-a...
An Attack on Inspector General Signals Something Much Bigger
We expect a lot from the intelligence community. In addition to traditional missions like providing warning and supporting warfighters, intelligence
warontherocks.com
Ryan Goodman@rgoodlaw.bsky.social · 10mo agoI'm grateful to @60minutes.bsky.social featuring our study published @justsecurity.org. Link to the study (on the 'presumption of regularity'): www.justsecurity.org/120547/presu...
#OpenAccess from @ejisbisa.bsky.social - Sand in the gears: Sabotage in world politics - https://cup.org/4o2MQBc - @jrovner.bsky.social, @rorycormac.bsky.social & @lmaschmeyer.bsky.social #FirstView
Delighted to talk about Strategy and Grand Strategy with Aaron Maclean on his excellent School of War podcast. Check it out! www.youtube.com/watch?v=bZZD...
Ep 236: Joshua Rovner on Grand Strategy
YouTube video by School of War Podcast
youtube.com
Our latest roundtable examines the rapidly evolving global nuclear order. From North Korea to NATO, China to Latin America, this collection of essays explores the domestic and international forces reshaping nuclear security. Full roundtable: tnsr.org/roundtable/n...
Navigating the New Nuclear Map - Texas National Security Review
The global nuclear order is undergoing rapid and complex transformations, driven by the expansion of arsenals, evolving doctrines, and the interplay of domestic and international politics. This roundt...
tnsr.org
Strategy and Grand Strategy beyond war and peace. Bradley Dickey from the Cambridge Centre for Pandemic Risk uses the book to understand the response to covid-19 - and to think about the broader questions surrounding health security. www.crassh.cam.ac.uk/blog/strateg...
Strategies for pandemics and Grand Strategy for disease health security - CRASSH
The plan to "win the peace" after a pandemic is a critical but undeveloped element of pandemic preparedness
crassh.cam.ac.uk
I joined @nktpnd.bsky.social on his @warontherocks.bsky.social podcast “Thinking the Unthinkable” to talk about my new book: The Art of Coercion. And here’s the book (the ebook is free!): www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9781501...
The Art of Coercion by Reid B. C. Pauly | Paperback | Cornell University Press
The Art of Coercion presents a fresh explanation for the success—and failure—of coercive demands in international politics.Strong states are surprisingly bad at coercion. History shows they prevail...
cornellpress.cornell.edu
War on the Rocks@warontherocks.bsky.social · 11mo agoDeterrence gets all the attention — but what about assurance? @nktpnd.bsky.social is joined by @reidpauly.bsky.social to discuss. Listen here: warontherocks.com/ep...
Good news! You can now download the open access (free) ebook of Age of Decption from @CornellPress ! (You can also buy a paperback, which makes a fine decoration for your bookshelf) www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9781501...
Age of Deception by Jon R. Lindsay | eBook | Cornell University Press
At the heart of cybersecurity lies a paradox: Cooperation makes conflict possible. In Age of Deception, Jon R. Lindsay shows that widespread trust in cyberspace enables espionage and subversion. While...
cornellpress.cornell.edu
Should the US release secret intelligence for strategic gain? A roundtable debate in @h-diplo.bsky.social with Melissa Graves, David Gioe, @mindyhaas.bsky.social and me: issforum.org/roundtables/...
Jervis Forum Roundtable 17-5 on Gioe and Morell, “Spy and Tell”
Roundtable Review 17-5 David V. Gioe and Michael J. Morell, “Spy and Tell: The Promise and Peril of Disclosing Intelligence for Strategic Advantage,” Foreign Affairs 7:4 (2024): 138-152.
issforum.org
New collection of essays and interviews on European security. Includes my thoughts on strategy and grand strategy. human-magazin.de/wp-content/u...
human-magazin.de
Teaching about 9/11, then and now. My thoughts @usatoday.com
American University School of International Service@ausis.bsky.social · 11mo agoTwenty-four years after 9/11, SIS professor Joshua Rovner (@jrovner.bsky.social) discusses what it was like to teach students about the World Trade Center attacks in the early- to mid-aughts versus teaching students today in this piece for @usatoday.com. www.usatoday.com/story/news/n...
I have some thoughts for USA Today on teaching abut 9/11, then and now www.usatoday.com/story/news/n...
How has teaching about 9/11 changed since 2001? We asked educators.
Once a shared experience, the day has slipped into history for students, and even teachers, who weren't yet born when the attacks happened.
usatoday.com
At the start of WWI, Britain allowed the trade of machine guns to Germany but banned the trade of carriages for them. Why? On our podcast Mariya Grinberg discusses her book, "Trade in War," and why adversaries often continue to trade even while fighting @mitpolisci.bsky.social @ssp-mit.bsky.social
Article on sabotage accepted for publication in @ejisbisa.bsky.social authored with @lmaschmeyer.bsky.social and @jrovner.bsky.social calls for a celebratory Dartmoor whisky Sabotage weaponises friction to degrade; subversion actively generates change 2 distinct logics in “grey zone” statecraft
A study of nearly 2,000 military and civilian officials reveals that even the most experienced experts are susceptible to cognitive biases that can have significant implications for international stability. Read Jeffrey Friedman's article on this topic on the TNSR website. tnsr.org/2025/09/the-...
The World Is More Uncertain than You Think: Assessing and Combating Overconfidence Among 2,000 National Security Officials - Texas National Security Review
This article analyzes more than 60,000 assessments of uncertainty made by national security officials from more than forty NATO allies and partners. The findings show that national security officials ...
tnsr.org
1/2 Putin's long war in Ukraine has reduced Russia's influence abroad, writes @hannanotte.bsky.social. Put another way, its wartime strategy is working against its broader grand strategy. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/15/o...
Opinion | Putin Should Be Careful What He Wishes For
nytimes.com