Here's the @intsecurity.bsky.social article it's based on. @reidpauly.bsky.social @mitpress.bsky.social @belfercenter.bsky.social @pearson-edits.bsky.social direct.mit.edu/isec/article...

Damned If They Do, Damned If They Don't: The Assurance Dilemma in International Coercion

Abstract. Why do some coercive demands succeed but others fail? A dominant paradigm explains coercive outcomes by pointing to the credibility and severity of threats. The concept of coercive assurance...

direct.mit.edu

Jacqueline L. Hazelton@drjlhazelton.bsky.social · last wk.

Important work from @reidpauly.bsky.social on US-Iran @mitpress.bsky.social @belfercenter.bsky.social @pearson-edits.bsky.social @intsecurity.bsky.social www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

Important work from @reidpauly.bsky.social on US-Iran @mitpress.bsky.social @belfercenter.bsky.social @pearson-edits.bsky.social @intsecurity.bsky.social www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

The Lost Art of Coercion

Why Trump’s belligerence is a sign of weakness.

foreignaffairs.com

Valuable piece from @reidpauly.bsky.social in @goodauth.bsky.social @mitpress.bsky.social @belfercenter.bsky.social Why the US struggles to coerce Iran.

Why the U.S. is finding it hard to coerce Iran

The limits of U.S. coercion are evident in the dispute over Iran's nuclear program. Understanding how coercion works can help explain why this is so challenging.

goodauthority.org

“Trump’s reputation for belligerence will continue to hinder his dealmaking ambitions for the remainder of his presidency,” write @reidpauly.bsky.social and @matthewcebul.bsky.social. “Trust is hard to gain and easy to lose, and the U.S. president has surely lost much of it around the world.”

The Lost Art of Coercion

Why Trump’s belligerence is a sign of weakness.

foreignaffairs.com

Today in @foreignaffairs.com, @reidpauly.bsky.social and I reflect on why Trump’s belligerent approach to coercion so often fails, and what it will take to repair the damage that Trump is inflicting on U.S. statecraft:

The Lost Art of Coercion

Why Trump’s belligerence is a sign of weakness.

foreignaffairs.com

Why the U.S. is finding it hard to coerce Iran? Read our latest "Good Chat" with Reid Pauly, author of "The Art of Coercion." goodauthority.org/news/why-the...

Why the U.S. is finding it hard to coerce Iran

The limits of U.S. coercion are evident in the dispute over Iran's nuclear program. Understanding how coercion works can help explain why this is so challenging.

goodauthority.org

Coercion consists of more than just making threats on Truth Social. @reidpauly.bsky.social explains.

Reid Pauly@reidpauly.bsky.social · 3w ago

I had a very Good Chat with @segoddard.bsky.social about “Why the US is finding it hard to coerce Iran” @goodauth.bsky.social @profsaunders.bsky.social @watsonschoolbrown.bsky.social @brownupolisci.bsky.social goodauthority.org/news/why-the...

I had a very Good Chat with @segoddard.bsky.social about “Why the US is finding it hard to coerce Iran” @goodauth.bsky.social @profsaunders.bsky.social @watsonschoolbrown.bsky.social @brownupolisci.bsky.social goodauthority.org/news/why-the...

Why the U.S. is finding it hard to coerce Iran

The limits of U.S. coercion are evident in the dispute over Iran's nuclear program. Understanding how coercion works can help explain why this is so challenging.

goodauthority.org

More importantly, see @reidpauly.bsky.social's excellent book www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9781501...

Product Details

Cornell University Press fosters a culture of broad and sustained inquiry through the publication of scholarship that is engaged, influential, and of lasting significance.

cornellpress.cornell.edu

🌎 Why do strong states sometimes fail to coerce? Join @reidpauly.bsky.social for a discussion on his new book "The Art of Coercion: Credible Threats and the Assurance Dilemma." 📆 7 May, 14:00-16:00 📌 Council Room (KIN 214), King's Building 🔗 Tickets and more information available here:

Book Talk - The Art of Coercion: Credible Threats and the Assurance Dilemma | King's College London

A book talk by Reid Pauly.

kcl.ac.uk

Pain has to be avoidable. Effective threats don’t make their target feel “damned if they do and damned if they don’t.” Thanks @profsaunders.bsky.social I’ll just add that the ebook is open access (i.e. free!)

Elizabeth N. Saunders@profsaunders.bsky.social · 4mo ago

This is partly why compellence (getting a country to do something it doesn't want to do, or undo what it has already done) is so hard: you need to be able to provide *assurance* that you will accept their actions and refrain from further punishment, etc. See @reidpauly.bsky.social's book!

😂 It’s even worse for me, because the ebook is actually free to download.

Richard Nephew@richardmnephew.bsky.social · 4mo ago

Thanks for the tip @profsaunders.bsky.social. I do have a question for @reidpauly.bsky.social, though: how often do you get hate mail asking why you think "coercion" is an art? Cuz if I had a nickel for every time I'm asked that about sanctions, I'd outstrip my actual royalties pretty damn quick.

@cornellupress.bsky.social www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9781501...

The Art of Coercion by Reid B. C. Pauly | Paperback | Cornell University Press

The Art of Coercion presents a fresh explanation for the success—and failure—of coercive demands in international politics.Strong states are surprisingly bad at coercion. History shows they prevail...

cornellpress.cornell.edu

This is partly why compellence (getting a country to do something it doesn't want to do, or undo what it has already done) is so hard: you need to be able to provide *assurance* that you will accept their actions and refrain from further punishment, etc. See @reidpauly.bsky.social's book!

Nicholas Grossman@nicholasgrossman.bsky.social · 4mo ago

Trump is demonstrating the importance of credibility in international relations. He is not credible. He’s shown that others can’t trust what he says, and can’t act as if his stance will be the same tomorrow. He can’t communicate demands or make reliable offers. He made America’s word is worthless.

Pakistan is waging its own war in Afghanistan. @claryc.bsky.social and Asfandyar Mir discuss how these former allies are now in open conflict – and why this might escalate further. Read: goodauthority.org/news/pakista...

Pakistan is waging its own war in Afghanistan

Pakistan is waging its own war in Afghanistan. Christopher Clary and Asfandyar Mir discuss how these former allies are now in open conflict – and why this might escalate further.

goodauthority.org

It was a joy to share my new book—The Art of Coercion—at Yale today. Thank you for hosting me! @yalejackson.bsky.social

I joined @nktpnd.bsky.social on his @warontherocks.bsky.social podcast “Thinking the Unthinkable” to talk about my new book: The Art of Coercion. And here’s the book (the ebook is free!): www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9781501...

The Art of Coercion by Reid B. C. Pauly | Paperback | Cornell University Press

The Art of Coercion presents a fresh explanation for the success—and failure—of coercive demands in international politics.Strong states are surprisingly bad at coercion. History shows they prevail...

cornellpress.cornell.edu

War on the Rocks@warontherocks.bsky.social · 11mo ago

Deterrence gets all the attention — but what about assurance? @nktpnd.bsky.social is joined by @reidpauly.bsky.social to discuss. Listen here: warontherocks.com/ep...

I spoke with Brown’s Trending Globally podcast about my new book, “The Art of Coercion” player.captivate.fm/episode/f84b...

Diplomacy, security, and the “Art of Coercion”

Quickly and easily listen to Trending Globally: Politics and Policy for free!

player.captivate.fm

My @brownupolisci.bsky.social colleagues in IR are having an amazing run of book publishing this summer. Quick thread to celebrate them (1/6) First up, @reidpauly.bsky.social book on the surprisingly tricky task of international coercion www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9781501...

The Art of Coercion by Reid B. C. Pauly | Paperback | Cornell University Press

The Art of Coercion presents a fresh explanation for the success—and failure—of coercive demands in international politics.Strong states are surprisingly bad at coercion. History shows they prevail...

cornellpress.cornell.edu

I just received my first copy of the book!

Why do strong states so often fail to bend rivals to their will? @reidpauly.bsky.social’s new book, The Art of Coercion, reveals the missing piece: threats only work if paired with credible assurances. Learn more:

The Art of Coercion

Reid Pauly’s new book "The Art of Coercion" explains why strong states often fail to force compliance in international politics.

ow.ly

I spoke with @newbooksnetwork.bsky.social about my new book: THE ART OF COERCION Thanks for having me on the podcast! newbooksnetwork.com/the-art-of-c...

🚨 It’s publication day! THE ART OF COERCION is finally out. When do threats work? When they are perceived as credibly *conditional*. Credible and painful punishments are not enough. Threats fail if targets feel “damned if they do and damned if they don’t.” shorturl.at/qa4T5

The Art of Coercion by Reid B. C. Pauly | Paperback | Cornell University Press

The Art of Coercion presents a fresh explanation for the success—and failure—of coercive demands in international politics.Strong states are surprisingly bad at coercion. History shows they prevail...

cornellpress.cornell.edu

Assurances are integral to the logic of deterrence (and coercion more broadly). They clarify the choice: war or peace. Preventing a war over Taiwan requires that we get this right and pair threats with assurance. Thanks @bglaser.bsky.social Jessica Chen Weiss and Tom Christensen for the shout-out 🙏.

Foreign Affairs@foreignaffairs.com · 3y ago

If the United States wants to prevent war in the Taiwan Strait, it will need more than weapons in arsenals and strategies on the planning table, write @bglaser.bsky.social, Jessica Chen Weiss, and Thomas Christensen. Washington must also provide Beijing with credible assurances.